Election 2008

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by PhiGam

People are slowly falling out of love with Obama and have begun to analyze what he's actually saying.

LOL. That's good spin, but I'm not sure how accurate it is. If it were really what's going on, we would be seeing bigger drops in Obama's numbers, not just McCain's going up and a statistical dead-heat. (At least, depending on the poll. I tend to look mainly at Rasmussen and CNN's "poll of polls." In both, it's a statistical deadheat.) There may be some truth to it, but I think for the most part it falls more into the category of partisan saying-it-makes-it-so-speak.

I think that the main factor behind the poll numbers is that the McCain campaign has been Palinized. When he first chose her, I said (in the other thread) that I didn't think it was a smart choice. I'm having to rethink that, and even admit that I was wrong. (Feel free to QFP. )

While personally I still think that, from the standpoint of picking someone actually qualified for the job, Palin is a terrible choice, it is becoming clear that strategically she is a great choice. She has energized both the GOP base and, just as importantly, the McCain campaign. She has given the campaign some much-needed focus and new life. She seems to given McCain himself new energy. It's been interesting this week that it's clear people are coming out in droves to McCain campaign events to see Palin, not McCain.

I think that the main thing behind the poll numbers right now is that, thanks to Sarah Palin, lots of people who were lukewarm about supporting McCain or were on the fence are now finding a reason to be excited about the McCain campaign.

The real question though is what will happen state-by-state. These polls are all, so far as I know, polling opinions nationally, which would tend to indicate how the popular vote will go nationally. But as we all know, presidents aren't elected by a popular national vote. The issue will be where the Obama and McCain supporters are. The analysis I have seen is all over the map, so to speak, on that, but most of it seems to indicate that McCain has a harder job ahead of him than Obama.