Election 2008

[KSigkid]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

LOL. That's good spin, but I'm not sure how accurate it is. If it were really what's going on, we would be seeing bigger drops in Obama's numbers, not just McCain's going up and a statistical dead-heat. (At least, depending on the poll. I tend to look mainly at Rasmussen and CNN's "poll of polls." In both, it's a statistical deadheat.) There may be some truth to it, but I think for the most part it falls more into the category of partisan saying-it-makes-it-so-speak.

I think that the main factor behind the poll numbers is that the McCain campaign has been Palinized. When he first chose her, I said (in the other thread) that I didn't think it was a smart choice. I'm having to rethink that, and even admit that I was wrong. (Feel free to QFP. )

While personally I still think that, from the standpoint of picking someone actually qualified for the job, Palin is a terrible choice, it is becoming clear that strategically she is a great choice. She has energized both the GOP base and, just as importantly, the McCain campaign. She has given the campaign some much-needed focus and new life. She seems to given McCain himself new energy. It's been interesting this week that it's clear people are coming out in droves to McCain campaign events to see Palin, not McCain.

I think that the main thing behind the poll numbers right now is that, thanks to Sarah Palin, lots of people who were lukewarm about supporting McCain or were on the fence are now finding a reason to be excited about the McCain campaign.

The real question though is what will happen state-by-state. These polls are all, so far as I know, polling opinions nationally, which would tend to indicate how the popular vote will go nationally. But as we all know, presidents aren't elected by a popular national vote. The issue will be where the Obama and McCain supporters are. The analysis I have seen is all over the map, so to speak, on that, but most of it seems to indicate that McCain has a harder job ahead of him than Obama.

And, I don't think it's broken down by those who will actually go to the polls. The low voting turnout will make a difference as well, one way or the other.

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by KSigkid

And, I don't think it's broken down by those who will actually go to the polls. The low voting turnout will make a difference as well, one way or the other.

Plus, as been noted elsewhere at GC, polls still just call landlines. They're missing the growing number of people (mostly younger people I would guess), who have ditched landlines in favor of cellphones alone.

[TonyB06]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

Plus, as been noted elsewhere at GC, polls still just call landlines. They're missing the growing number of people (mostly younger people I would guess), who have ditched landlines in favor of cellphones alone.

Telephone polling is also typically done on Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights. Typically, people in the 18-34 demo, (which estimates suggest make up a large part of new voter registstration), even those with landlines, are not as likely to be home to be polled.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

Plus, as been noted elsewhere at GC, polls still just call landlines. They're missing the growing number of people (mostly younger people I would guess), who have ditched landlines in favor of cellphones alone.

This is becoming less of an issue, as far as I know (and this is only through reading industry mags and articles), although it's being replaced with a new problem - more and more polling is happening online, through "banks" of volunteer phone numbers including cell phones, or using on-site polling.

This simply replaces one form of selection bias with another, but since we really can't determine exactly what effect that bias will have, it's safe to take all polls with a grain of salt this early.

I guess my point is that if the polling is done via landline alone, I think it's fairly safe to say Obama's numbers are slightly underreported (even accounting for the fact that a huge number of the college kids on his side simply won't show up). Other polling, however, is just going to miss period, and completely ignore the error bars because they're making assumptions from 1983.

The two major political polling companies are not exactly known for being thorough or scientifically sound - they are, however, known for charging an assload for information, taking large payments from political committees, and firing out new polls as fast as possible.