Mother of Palin's boyfriend arrest

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Just to pop back in here, my understanding of Occam's Razor is that when there are two competing theories that reach the same prediction, the simpler one is better, right? So how is saying that Bristol is the mother the theory in conflict with Occam's Razor?

Occam's Razor is, in essence, "the simplest solution is generally the best."

Literally, it is that we shouldn't needlessly multiply variables when coming to a solution.

It's in conflict because we have a perfectly valid claim ("Sarah Palin is the mother") and no verifiable evidence to refute it, nor enough motive to make it clearly false, so it's a rough logical leap to come to any other conclusion. The simplest solution is that what is claimed as fact is actually fact.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Isn't that the simpler explanation, versus all of the explanations Sarah's ahd to make and taking down of pictures and absence of video, photos and records of all those months and events?

No.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Not to mention the appalling series of events she recounted the day she says she gave birth. To me, the story built around Sarah's pregnancy is much more in conflict with Occam's Razor than that her daughter got knocked up and had a kid in April.

Why?

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

One of the more interesting things I read today in my hour-plus-google-fest on the subject is that Bill McAllister, a former Anchorage TV reporter (who, interestingly, was later hired as the Governor's communications director), was quoted saying that the governor had approached him in the early spring and asked if he'd been hearing rumors about Bristol being pregnant because they weren't true. This was before Palin had announced her pregnancy.

Oh. Clearly rumor and innuendo are better than fact.

Look, Palin's kind of an idiot, so it's not like I'll eat a hat if it's true, but we have to do WAY better than this . . . oh, also, cite? C'mon.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Why is it unthinkable that a conservative governor of an evangelical Christian bend who is outspoken on abstinence, no birth control and anti-choice would be motivated to conceal the pregnancy of her teenage daughter?

It's not "unthinkable" - it's just not verified by evidence.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

I personally find that much more believable than that the same right-wing, pro-life, showing-she-can-do-it-all politician wouldn't have been trumpeting her 5th pregnancy at the ripe, healthy age of 43 and that her baby would be special needs and they made the pro-life choice because that's the right thing to do and aren't I a great example for all the young women of Alaska and America?

This ... requires a lot of psychoanalysis. Just saying.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

I'm still not saying I'm 100% on the "It's Bristol's baby!" bandwagon, but I am saying that I disagree with all those saying it's not her case to prove. Baloney.

NittanyAlum, you had sex with a child at one point in the past.

Prove me wrong.

Come on.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Not with the high-stakes political game she was trying to play.

WHEN SHE WAS SUPPOSEDLY PREGNANT WITH HER DAUGHTER'S KID (at least at first), SHE WAS NOT A VP CANDIDATE AND WAS NOT PLAYING ANY HIGH-STAKES GAMES UNLESS THERE ARE MUCH BETTER CASINOS IN AK THAN I'VE BEEN TOLD ABOUT.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

You want people to shut up and stop "spreading rumors"? Produce a birth certificate. Produce a hospital record. Produce your own doctor, for heaven's sake.

Seriously - prove you didn't nail a kid.

[nittanyalum]

Nice, tasteful challenge to throw in there on Christmas Eve, KSig, jeez!

We disagree on the application of Occam's Razor, I still say there's an argument that the theory that Bristol is the mother is the simpler one. The theory that Sarah is the mother is the one with a multitude of variables in conflict. I'm not going to recite every one, you can google and find the same hours' worth of reading I did. And it still may not convince you, I'm not saying it convinced me. I'm saying it doesn't make the answer that Bristol is the mother the one in conflict with Occam's Razor.

And re: Palin's political stake, it was still high, pre-VP nom. I meant it in that sense in my first post. She is the governor of the state, outspoken on her conservative social views and her teen daughter gets pregnant out of wedlock. Again, you can see it differently, but concealing that seems more in her political favor than concealing her 5th pregnancy for 7 months what with all her family-values-talk.

And now, back to my pre-holiday-gathering cocktail warm-up session with the hubby. Merry Christmas, everyone!

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Nice, tasteful challenge to throw in there on Christmas Eve, KSig, jeez!

Ha - 'tis the season . . . but seriously, you wouldn't answer such a spurious charge, would you? Actually, you DIDN'T, so that's already been answered . . . and if she were indeed the mother, wouldn't such a charge seem equally spurious?

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

We disagree on the application of Occam's Razor, I still say there's an argument that the theory that Bristol is the mother is the simpler one. The theory that Sarah is the mother is the one with a multitude of variables in conflict. I'm not going to recite every one, you can google and find the same hours' worth of reading I did. And it still may not convince you, I'm not saying it convinced me. I'm saying it doesn't make the answer that Bristol is the mother the one in conflict with Occam's Razor.

I cannot imagine a world in which a cover-up of a pregnancy is a simpler solution than any other reasonable scenario.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

And re: Palin's political stake, it was still high, pre-VP nom. I meant it in that sense in my first post. She is the governor of the state, outspoken on her conservative social views and her teen daughter gets pregnant out of wedlock. Again, you can see it differently, but concealing that seems more in her political favor than concealing her 5th pregnancy for 7 months what with all her family-values-talk.

You really think she's smart enough to have that much foresight? You kind of have to play it both ways to get here, don't you? (note: not you specifically)

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

And now, back to my pre-holiday-gathering cocktail warm-up session with the hubby. Merry Christmas, everyone!

Definitely, you too - enjoy!

[epchick]

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

I'm still not saying I'm 100% on the "It's Bristol's baby!" bandwagon, but I am saying that I disagree with all those saying it's not her case to prove. Baloney. Not with the high-stakes political game she was trying to play. You want people to shut up and stop "spreading rumors"? Produce a birth certificate. Produce a hospital record. Produce your own doctor, for heaven's sake. Who, by the way, is a family practitioner, not an OB/GYN. So a 43-year-old with a high-risk pregnancy and a special needs child was not referred to a specialist, but instead relied on her regular family doctor to give her prenatal care and deliver a child that might have needed special attention as soon as he was born? AND she won't make a definitive statement that she delivered the governor's baby in April? The hospital didn't make an announcement that the governor had chosen their facility to have her baby? No birth announcements or a family photo in the recovery room after the 5th blessing had arrived?

Not everyone gets referred to a specialist when it is thought that the pregnancy is "high risk." When my aunt was pregnant 8 years ago (she was 40-something at the time), her pregnancy was considered high risk because my cousin was a special needs child (he was thought to have Trisomy 18, i believe). Her regular ob/gyn watched her, and not once was my aunt looked at by a specialist.

I could be mistaken, but although there are "tests" to check for Down Syndrome it isn't considered 100%. When I was in HS, a girl I knew had the amino tests for Down, and tested "positive" (or whatever they call it) but the baby wasn't born with Down.


ETA: It looks like she's pregnant to me.



and again, from the State of Alaska website. Palin, Feb. 26, 2008

http://gov.state.ak.us/photos/govp_washingtondc2008.jpg

[SWTXBelle]

FWIW - when I was preggers with #3 and 4, I was technically "high risk", but never had to have a specialist. I had some extra tests, but I also did not have some others because I would not have aborted, so my ob/gyn (and incidentally, I would have had a family practitioner deliver them, as I had with #2, but they are hard to find!) and I decided there was no point. I actually figured that since my first two deliveries went so well I would have no problems. HA! But that is another story. Back on topic -

I think it was extremely ill-advised to travel as late in her pregnancy as Sarah Palin did, but people make what I consider poor choices during pregnancy all the time.

[Kevlar281]

Obama's half brother arrested on charge of marijuana possession

[KappaKittyCat]

Originally Posted by Kevlar281

Obama's half brother arrested on charge of marijuana possession

Which simply adds Prez O to the long list of US presidents with siblings/close relatives who've done embarrassing stuff.

[SWTXBelle]

Originally Posted by KappaKittyCat

Which simply adds Prez O to the long list of US presidents with siblings/close relatives who've done embarrassing stuff.

Kinda sort of the point.