University of Southern California Recruitment Begins

[DubaiSis]

The big problem is the transition between the old and new systems. When sororities have to make WAY bigger cuts after the first round than they ever did before, it really freaks out the rushees who then quit because they no longer have the "good" houses left. It seems to take a few years and girls figure out that it's a lot more competitive than it used to be, and start to accept chapters they wouldn't have before, and then the rising tide in fact raises all ships. But not right away. And of course, it's not really more competitive. It's just more competitive earlier so it feels like more of a blow. Back in my day it was pretty unusual to not have a full schedule all or most of the way through. Now I think it's the other way around.

But it does seem to me that there is a certain amount of forecasting of quota that happens, and maybe someone can address that. If chapter A is really strong and has to make big cuts after each round, I'm confused about how that is determined. Let me give a scenario and maybe someone can jump in.

Chapter A has 90% return rates after each round. There are 1000 girls going through recruitment. Let's say parties go from 12 to 9 to 5 to 3. How is it determined what percentage of girls they have to cut? I mean it seems there has to be a presumption of a final quota for them to work for. So if the quota at the end is forecasted to be 50, they'd want 150 at pref (a pledge class at each party is what I was always told), 250 the 3rd round, and 450 at round two, with a buffer of 10% for the girls who will cut them. That would answer the whopper cut after round one and a steady drop from there. But is this anywhere near what really happens? And how would they forecast the final number? Or is that based on return rates as well? 1000 girls go through rush. Historically 70% get placed, or 700 girls. Divided by 12 chapters, that puts a forecasted quota at 58. That would allow for a fairly sizeable discrepancy when it came to real life. Maybe this year the girls figure it out and DON'T drop out after round one, or the chapters are all fighting over the same small pool of girls and too many girls get inadvertently cut completely. But in general this seems to make sense to me. Am I right or completely off target?