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@honeychile: Not always, but people generally know what's up by year four or so (people generally apply for tenure around the fifth or sixth year--at least in my field). They know whether they are on track in terms of what they have to demonstrate/accomplish to be awarded tenure. They should also have a sense of whether they are up for a battle, because of politics, if they have been keeping their ear to the ground. All of this to say it is--in the majority of cases--not really a surprise when someone either does or does not receive tenure. I have known cases where folks who know, or have a strong feeling, that they are not going to receive tenure at their current institution have begun looking for a position elsewhere rather than even going through the process.
There are always exceptions though.
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Last edited by Little32; 02-15-2010 at 02:33 PM.
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