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I was not surprised that Florida and Michigan got equal treatment, but I was surprised that the Michigan State Democratic party recommendation was undertaken which essentially took 4 delegates from Hillary and then gave Obama those 4 plus 55 delegates to represent "uncommitted" votes. That was too much a liberty I think.
But the real buzzkill here was CNN having the new projected numbers ready to go and showing the various scenarios.
Even with this latest Hillary move on Florida and Michigan- Obama is STILL going to be nominee. She would need over 70% of the super-delegates and a damn good performance in the last 3 primaries to take the win.
And I do not see that happening. If you look at the various cases presented, today was a big win for Obama. In essence- his campaign got what they wanted in terms of proposed solutions except that the split in Michigan was a bit different.
So once again, Hillary has declared a "defining moment" that could turn the tide- and it didn't happen!
At the end of the day, Obama got the 1/2 vote ruling for Florida, the 1/2 vote ruling for Michigan AND a compromised Michigan delegate count that gave him more than what he potentially could have won assuming all uncommitted were for him.
Hillary got nothing she asked for.
In the broader sense I take this to mean that DNC leaders have definitively dismissed the Clintons as the power leaders behind the party and have given that honor to Obama. That is huge. Today is the first time that power shift has been formally "ratified" if you will.
The big question remaining though is what the Hillary supporters will do in the general election.
Obama's disadvantage today was how what was best for him conflicts with the prima-facie case for how to handle Florida and Michigan.
What I mean by saying that is that to the average man in the street the votes should all count- regardless of party rules. The right for your vote to count just resonates a lot better than a lot of fancy rules and machinations that are contrary to that basic concept. This is especially important outside of Michigan or Florida where voters might not be as familiar with how things really went down in both states.
So for Hillary this was easy. The "every vote should count as cast" argument worked in her favor.
But for Obama the favorable argument was to not have Florida or Michigan seated at all. Obviously he cannot do that given the power of "every vote should count", so instead his team came up with inconsistent approaches to the states- half value in Florida and a 50-50 allocation of Michigan voters.
Granted the disparate treatment could be considered reasonable in light of how the ballot differed in both states, but the average man in the street will not care about that.
At this point it is clear to me Obama is going to be the nominee- and I expect that will be confirmed by Thursday of this coming week. Clinton may go to the Credentials Committee, and it might be a good play for her to force Obama to make her VP, but she will not be the nominee.
The outstanding question now is whether Obama can win. I thought he was unelectable before today, and with Hillary supporters angry over what they will see as a breach of the "every vote should count" concept- I expect he is in an even bigger hole than he was before this.
In other words, what a lot of Democrats have said before might be coming true. Namely, Obama will get the nomination- but Hillary did a great job of doing all she could to ensure Obama could not win the White House.
Time will tell. Lots could happen before November...
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