Mother of Palin's boyfriend arrest

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Just to pop back in here, my understanding of Occam's Razor is that when there are two competing theories that reach the same prediction, the simpler one is better, right? So how is saying that Bristol is the mother the theory in conflict with Occam's Razor?

Occam's Razor is, in essence, "the simplest solution is generally the best."

Literally, it is that we shouldn't needlessly multiply variables when coming to a solution.

It's in conflict because we have a perfectly valid claim ("Sarah Palin is the mother") and no verifiable evidence to refute it, nor enough motive to make it clearly false, so it's a rough logical leap to come to any other conclusion. The simplest solution is that what is claimed as fact is actually fact.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Isn't that the simpler explanation, versus all of the explanations Sarah's ahd to make and taking down of pictures and absence of video, photos and records of all those months and events?

No.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Not to mention the appalling series of events she recounted the day she says she gave birth. To me, the story built around Sarah's pregnancy is much more in conflict with Occam's Razor than that her daughter got knocked up and had a kid in April.

Why?

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

One of the more interesting things I read today in my hour-plus-google-fest on the subject is that Bill McAllister, a former Anchorage TV reporter (who, interestingly, was later hired as the Governor's communications director), was quoted saying that the governor had approached him in the early spring and asked if he'd been hearing rumors about Bristol being pregnant because they weren't true. This was before Palin had announced her pregnancy.

Oh. Clearly rumor and innuendo are better than fact.

Look, Palin's kind of an idiot, so it's not like I'll eat a hat if it's true, but we have to do WAY better than this . . . oh, also, cite? C'mon.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Why is it unthinkable that a conservative governor of an evangelical Christian bend who is outspoken on abstinence, no birth control and anti-choice would be motivated to conceal the pregnancy of her teenage daughter?

It's not "unthinkable" - it's just not verified by evidence.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

I personally find that much more believable than that the same right-wing, pro-life, showing-she-can-do-it-all politician wouldn't have been trumpeting her 5th pregnancy at the ripe, healthy age of 43 and that her baby would be special needs and they made the pro-life choice because that's the right thing to do and aren't I a great example for all the young women of Alaska and America?

This ... requires a lot of psychoanalysis. Just saying.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

I'm still not saying I'm 100% on the "It's Bristol's baby!" bandwagon, but I am saying that I disagree with all those saying it's not her case to prove. Baloney.

NittanyAlum, you had sex with a child at one point in the past.

Prove me wrong.

Come on.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

Not with the high-stakes political game she was trying to play.

WHEN SHE WAS SUPPOSEDLY PREGNANT WITH HER DAUGHTER'S KID (at least at first), SHE WAS NOT A VP CANDIDATE AND WAS NOT PLAYING ANY HIGH-STAKES GAMES UNLESS THERE ARE MUCH BETTER CASINOS IN AK THAN I'VE BEEN TOLD ABOUT.

Originally Posted by nittanyalum

You want people to shut up and stop "spreading rumors"? Produce a birth certificate. Produce a hospital record. Produce your own doctor, for heaven's sake.

Seriously - prove you didn't nail a kid.