Politics 2008:The Caucuses and The Dem/Rep Conventions

[AKA2D '91]

Michelle Obama will be Larry King's guest in a few minutes. The show will repeat later on tonight (11 PM Central time).

[Ten/Four]

Obama is crushing Clinton in VA. The Maryland polls are extended to 9:30 pm due to weather.

[mccoyred]

Originally Posted by Ten/Four

Obama is crushing Clinton in VA. The Maryland polls are extended to 9:30 pm due to weather.

Per CNN projections, he swept the entire Potomac area. In reviewing the exit polls for VA and MD (it looks like DC had a caucus not a primary per se), Billary is very strong with her own demographic - older white women Democrats - but in all other demographics, Obama won their votes although a few were close like the overall white vote (Virginia - Clinton=51%, Obama 46%; Maryland - Clinton=49%, Obama 50%). White women made up the single largest demographic in both areas (Maryland=34%, Virginia=35%) but it still wasn't enough to put her over the top because she only received a slight majority of those votes. Next stop Hawaii (Obama's home state), Washington State and Wisconsin.

The Republican race is a non-contest with McCain running away with the nomination.

[KAPital PHINUst]

Originally Posted by mccoyred

The Republican race is a MSM conceived non-contest with McCain presumably running away with the nomination.

[COLOR=darkred]Fixed that for you.[/

[mccoyred]

Originally Posted by KAPital PHINUst

Fixed that for you.

What is MSM?

BTW, isn't it mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win the nomination by number of delegates? Is there another way that a candidate can win the nomination in the Republican party? I really want to know because even though I am and have been a registered Independent my entire life, I am more familiar with the Democratic party process than the Republican one.

[TonyB06]

Originally Posted by mccoyred

What is MSM?

BTW, isn't it mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win the nomination by number of delegates? Is there another way that a candidate can win the nomination in the Republican party? I really want to know because even though I am and have been a registered Independent my entire life, I am more familiar with the Democratic party process than the Republican one.

Numerically, the Repub. nomination contest is over. Huckabee is running, and gaining delegates (particularly from the evangelical wing of Republican primary voters) as "leverage," so to speak, establishing himself as the "anti-McCain" alternative to those who just aren't feeling McCain.

Perhaps it'll lead to Huckabee's being chosen as VP, or as the leader of the party after the '08 elections.

[KAPital PHINUst]

Originally Posted by mccoyred

What is MSM?

[COLOR=darkred]MSM = Main Stream Media[/

BTW, isn't it mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win the nomination by number of delegates? Is there another way that a candidate can win the nomination in the Republican party? I really want to know because even though I am and have been a registered Independent my entire life, I am more familiar with the Democratic party process than the Republican one.

[COLOR=darkred]It is also mathematically impossible for McCain to win the nomination prior to Convention. Someone did a spreadsheet listing state by state the number of (bound) delegates won or projected to win by Republican candidate. If I find it, I'll post it here.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]ETA: I question if the number of delegates the MSM says that McCain has is accurate in that are those delegates bound to McCain, and if so, are they legally bound or only "morally" bound. The difference is that in some states, delegates are legally bound to vote for the winning candidate and if they deviate, there could be some serious legal consequences, whereas in morally bound states, it is "recommended" that they vote for the winning candidate, but they can "break rank", vote for another candidate, and only get a slap on the wrist. Personally I think there are a LOT more stealth Huckabee and Paul delegates than the MSM is actually reporting.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]Both candidates Huckabee and Paul are shooting for a brokered convention, which is if in the first round of voting no candidate wins a simple majority, then in the second and subsequent voting rounds all delegates become unbound and it becomes a free for all with who the delegates want to vote for.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]I can tell you now there is a significant number of delegates who are uncommitted to any candidate and we won't know who they will be voting for until convention.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]The smartest thing for the Huckabee and Paul delegates can do at this point is to team up and to give each other support to win states that they have the stronger support in. I am speaking of states where they have caucuses instead of primaries. This happened in WV where Huckabee won because the Paul delegates swung their support to Huckabee in exchange for 3 delegates going from Huckabee to Paul. If this had happened earlier in the primaries, a brokered convention would've been all but certain, plus Paul would've likely won such states as Nevada and Maine.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]If the GOP hates McCain's guts the way everyone is saying they do, there will most definately be a brokered convention.[/

[KAPital PHINUst]

Originally Posted by TonyB06

Numerically, the Repub. nomination contest is over. Huckabee is running, and gaining delegates (particularly from the evangelical wing of Republican primary voters) as "leverage," so to speak, establishing himself as the "anti-McCain" alternative to those who just aren't feeling McCain.

[COLOR=darkred]While it looks like the nomination contest is over based on the numbers, trust, it is far from over.[/

Perhaps it'll lead to Huckabee's being chosen as VP, or as the leader of the party after the '08 elections.

[COLOR=darkred]Some have speculated that Huckabee will "kingmake" McCain into getting the nomination by giving his delegates to McCain in exchange for McCain making Huck a running mate, though Huckabee said on Meet the Press last Sunday that he was not interested in a VP position. Whether this was a slick PR ploy or the truth remains to be seen.[/

[ladygreek]

Originally Posted by KAPital PHINUst

[COLOR=darkred]MSM = Main Stream Media[/



[COLOR=darkred]It is also mathematically impossible for McCain to win the nomination prior to Convention. Someone did a spreadsheet listing state by state the number of (bound) delegates won or projected to win by Republican candidate. If I find it, I'll post it here.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]ETA: I question if the number of delegates the MSM says that McCain has is accurate in that are those delegates bound to McCain, and if so, are they legally bound or only "morally" bound. The difference is that in some states, delegates are legally bound to vote for the winning candidate and if they deviate, there could be some serious legal consequences, whereas in morally bound states, it is "recommended" that they vote for the winning candidate, but they can "break rank", vote for another candidate, and only get a slap on the wrist. Personally I think there are a LOT more stealth Huckabee and Paul delegates than the MSM is actually reporting.[/
[COLOR=#8b0000]Both candidates Huckabee and Paul are shooting for a brokered convention, which is if in the first round of voting no candidate wins a simple majority, then in the second and subsequent voting rounds all delegates become unbound and it becomes a free for all with who the delegates want to vote for.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]I can tell you now there is a significant number of delegates who are uncommitted to any candidate and we won't know who they will be voting for until convention.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]The smartest thing for the Huckabee and Paul delegates can do at this point is to team up and to give each other support to win states that they have the stronger support in. I am speaking of states where they have caucuses instead of primaries. This happened in WV where Huckabee won because the Paul delegates swung their support to Huckabee in exchange for 3 delegates going from Huckabee to Paul. If this had happened earlier in the primaries, a brokered convention would've been all but certain, plus Paul would've likely won such states as Nevada and Maine.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]If the GOP hates McCain's guts the way everyone is saying they do, there will most definately be a brokered convention.

The Repubs are non-binding and do not have super delegates. The Dems are binding and have super delegates.

[ladygreek]

Originally Posted by KAPital PHINUst

[COLOR=darkred]While it looks like the nomination contest is over based on the numbers, trust, it is far from over.[/

[COLOR=darkred]Some have speculated that Huckabee will "kingmake" McCain into getting the nomination by giving his delegates to McCain in exchange for McCain making Huck a running mate, though Huckabee said on Meet the Press last Sunday that he was not interested in a VP position. Whether this was a slick PR ploy or the truth remains to be seen.[/]

McCain and Huckabee are friendly. In other venues Huck dodged the question saying "they have talked."

[mccoyred]

Gotcha! That was a really good explanation. I could not figure out why Paul was still in the race and what Huckabee has to gain at this late date.

BTW, I spoke to one of my diehard Republican friends and he, probably like most conservatives, is NOT happy AT ALL. I think both conventions will be rather interesting this summer...


[QUOTE=KAPital PHINUst;1600498][COLOR=darkred]MSM = Main Stream Media[/



[COLOR=darkred]It is also mathematically impossible for McCain to win the nomination prior to Convention. Someone did a spreadsheet listing state by state the number of (bound) delegates won or projected to win by Republican candidate. If I find it, I'll post it here.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]ETA: I question if the number of delegates the MSM says that McCain has is accurate in that are those delegates bound to McCain, and if so, are they legally bound or only "morally" bound. The difference is that in some states, delegates are legally bound to vote for the winning candidate and if they deviate, there could be some serious legal consequences, whereas in morally bound states, it is "recommended" that they vote for the winning candidate, but they can "break rank", vote for another candidate, and only get a slap on the wrist. Personally I think there are a LOT more stealth Huckabee and Paul delegates than the MSM is actually reporting.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]Both candidates Huckabee and Paul are shooting for a brokered convention, which is if in the first round of voting no candidate wins a simple majority, then in the second and subsequent voting rounds all delegates become unbound and it becomes a free for all with who the delegates want to vote for

[COLOR=#8b0000]I can tell you now there is a significant number of delegates who are uncommitted to any candidate and we won't know who they will be voting for until convention.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]The smartest thing for the Huckabee and Paul delegates can do at this point is to team up and to give each other support to win states that they have the stronger support in. I am speaking of states where they have caucuses instead of primaries. This happened in WV where Huckabee won because the Paul delegates swung their support to Huckabee in exchange for 3 delegates going from Huckabee to Paul. If this had happened earlier in the primaries, a brokered convention would've been all but certain, plus Paul would've likely won such states as Nevada and Maine.[/

[COLOR=#8b0000]If the GOP hates McCain's guts the way everyone is saying they do, there will most definately be a brokered convention.[//QUOTE]

[mccoyred]

Well, NM has finally been decided in Hillary's favor. She continued to do well with women, Hispanics and older voters. Obama continued to do well with college-educated and younger voters; the Black population in NM is negligible however Obama did pull a majority of white voters.

It looks like Edwards failure to endorse a candidate cost Obama the state. Clinton won by only about 1100 votes. Edwards took over 2000 votes that might have gone to Obama and Richardson garnered 1200 votes that may have gone to Hillary.

Hillary is now going after Obama with both barrels trying to paint him as a talker and not a doer. I think that this strategy will backfire. On CBS news last night, Michelle addressed this question with Katie Couric in a straightforward and factual manner. Michelle rightly challenged the narrow definition of 'experience'. While Hillary has more experience in the Senate (by a mere 3 years), Obama has more elected experience having served8 years in the Illinois state legislature before being elected to the Senate. He was a civil rights attorney, constitutional law PROFESSOR and worked with people on the grass roots level. Representing corporate interests as an attorney and a board member are not necessarily better or more substantive experience for the highest office in the land; her mere one year at CDF is a blip in her '35 years of experience' and her 16 years as First Lady doesn't count AT ALL.

I don't know what to say at this point about Florida and Michigan.....

[Ten/Four]

Originally Posted by mccoyred

Well, NM has finally been decided in Hillary's favor. She continued to do well with women, Hispanics and older voters. Obama continued to do well with college-educated and younger voters; the Black population in NM is negligible however Obama did pull a majority of white voters.

It looks like Edwards failure to endorse a candidate cost Obama the state. Clinton won by only about 1100 votes. Edwards took over 2000 votes that might have gone to Obama and Richardson garnered 1200 votes that may have gone to Hillary.

Hillary is now going after Obama with both barrels trying to paint him as a talker and not a doer. I think that this strategy will backfire. On CBS news last night, Michelle addressed this question with Katie Couric in a straightforward and factual manner. Michelle rightly challenged the narrow definition of 'experience'. While Hillary has more experience in the Senate (by a mere 3 years), Obama has more elected experience having served8 years in the Illinois state legislature before being elected to the Senate. He was a civil rights attorney, constitutional law PROFESSOR and worked with people on the grass roots level. Representing corporate interests as an attorney and a board member are not necessarily better or more substantive experience for the highest office in the land; her mere one year at CDF is a blip in her '35 years of experience' and her 16 years as First Lady doesn't count AT ALL.

I also think Hillary going after Obama in this way will backfire. If she had done this in the first place things may be different for her. Doing it now only makes her seem desparate, which she is.

She's critizing him for being a "talker," but what has Hillary said in any speech that made nondecided voters want to listen. At least when Obama speaks you stop and listen even if you may not agree with him.

Originally Posted by mccoyred

I don't know what to say at this point about Florida and Michigan.....

This is going to be interesting. It's unfortunate because you don't deny those voters the right to choose who will be the nominee. On the otherhand, all the candidates agreed not to campaign in those states. I think Florida has more of a chance to get delegates seated because all the candidates names were on the ballot. Only Hillary's name was on the ballot in Michigan.

[mccoyred]

I got this from another listserve. I am sure that the accuracy can be verified on the respective US Senate and State of Illinois websites....

================================================== ==
Let's take a closer look at who's really qualified and/or who's really working for the good of all of us in the Senate - Obama or Clinton. Records of these two candidates should be scrutinized in order to make an informed decision.
Senator Clinton, who has served only one full term - 6yrs. - and another year campaigning, has managed to author and pass into law (20) twenty pieces of legislation in her first six years. These bills can be found on the website of the Library of Congress www.thomas.loc.gov, but to save you trouble, I'll post them here for you.
1. Establish the Kate Mullany National Historic Site.
2. Support the goals and ideals of Better Hearing and Speech Month.
3. Recognize the Ellis Island Medal of Honor.
4. Name courthouse after Thurgood Marshall.
5. Name courthouse after James L. Watson.
6. Name post office after Jonn A. O'Shea.
7. Designate Aug. 7, 2003, as National Purple Heart Recognition Day.
8. Support the goals and ideals of National Purple Heart Recognition Day.
9. Honor the life and legacy of Alexander Hamilton on the bicentennial of his death.
10. Congratulate the Syracuse Univ. Orange Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship.
11. Congratulate the Le Moyne College Dolphins Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship.
12. Establish the 225th Anniversary of the American Revolution Commemorative Program.
13. Name post office after Sergeant Riayan A. Tejeda.
14. Honor Shirley Chisholm for her service to the nation and express condolences on her death.
15. Honor John J. Downing, Brian Fahey, and Harry Ford, firefighters who lost their lives on duty. Only five of Clinton's bills are, more substantive. 16. Extend period of unemployment assistance to victims of 9/11.
17. Pay for city projects in response to 9/11 18. Assist landmine victims in other countries.
19. Assist family caregivers in accessing affordable respite care.
20. Designate part of the National Forest System in Puerto Rico as protected in the wilderness preservation system.
There you have it, the facts straight from the Senate Record.
__________________________________________________ _____________
Now, I would post those of Obama's, but the list is too long, so I'll mainly categorize.
During the first (8) eight years of his elected service he sponsored over 820 bills. He introduced 233 regarding healthcare reform, 125 on poverty and public assistance, 112 crime fighting bills, 97 economic bills, 60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills, 21 ethics reform bills, 15 gun control, 6 veterans affairs and many others.
During his first year in the U.S. Senate he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These included:
- The Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 which became law - The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act which became law
- The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act which passed the Senate
- The 2007 Government Ethics Bill which became law
- The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill, now in committee, and many more.
In all, since entering the U.S. Senate, Senator Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1,096. An impressive record, for someone who supposedly has no record according to some who would prefer that this comparison not be made public.

[unspokenone25]

FYI (for those that are interested): Barack Obama to be in Houston on Tuesday, February 19th for "Stand for Change Rally" at the Toyota Center. Doors open at 6pm. Tickets are first-come, first served.