The Apprentice 2

[Rain Man]

Here are the Final Four candidate's odds of winning, courtesy of Anemic Dog @ fansofrealitytv.com:

Based on the numbers, here's my assessment of the final four:

There are two factors that Trump seems to value above all others when making his decisions. First, he likes people who win when they lead. Overall won-loss record doesn't matter so much, or Amy would have been in the final two last season.

The second factor is avoiding the final boardroom. It's okay to lose (Bill and Kwame were both 5-7 last season) as long as you win when you lead. But if people keep choosing you, it means you're not perceived (to Trump, at least) as a strong competitor.

So, here are my odds for winning right now:

Kevin: 10-1. The bottom line is that while Kevin has performed decently overall and won as a leader, he is unique among the finalists this year and last in that people keep picking him to go to the final boardroom. Kwame led in survivals last season because he lost a lot, but by and large people kept sending him back to the suite. Kevin doesn't have that magic. His wins as leader were not particularly impressive (the toothpaste promotion should have led to a loss), Maria's bizarre behavior led to his other win.

Sandy: 3-1. She has all the right numbers. She's won when she's led. She works very hard. She has spunk, and Trump is not like Lou Grant. He likes spunk. But when she leads, she delegates leadership. She lets everything happen and hopes for the best. Which, by and large, it has. She gets along with everyone, and only when cornered does she make her opinion known. She really will be a success in life, but I think she's a bit young to make the leadership impression necessary to win this game. She has flown under the radar, and done it well. Probably the most deserving of the nine women.

Jen M.: 2-1. She keeps skating by because she avoids taking the leadership role. Smart decision, considering Trump has fired the team leader nine times in the last ten weeks. She also is perceived by most (obviously it drives Ivana crazy) as a good, smart worker. Amy used this strategy very well last season, but ultimately, it fails to impress. I don't think she will interview well, while Sandy probably will. The only thing going for her is that she's very pretty and slightly more presentable than Sandy, and it's likely Trump wants a female winner. He may hire her over the objections of his advisors. That's her only chance, but it's quite a good one.

Kelly: 1-2. He has just creamed everyone in the competitions, the same way Amy did last season. But he has willingly taken the leadership reins and led well. He has avoided the final boardroom when losing. This week was his first trip, and it's not as if Ivana chose him to go. Plain and simple: he's earned the job. My only question is whether Trump will recognize it.

Comments? Suggestions?