Amy Coney Barrett

[TriDeltaSallie]

Kevin and Ronaldo -

I truly appreciate the civil and informative dialogue (minus the Rats). It's refreshing to see people actually discuss ideas in a substantive way.

Kevin mentioned that he expected Biden to win so I wanted to offer a different perspective. By way of background, I'll give this.

Two weeks before the last election, I publicly predicted Trump would win. Not on a whim, but because I spent the better part of a month really digging into all the information I could find. I had come to that conclusion, but when Michael Moore basically said what I was thinking I knew I was probably right. We are polar opposites in nearly every way, but he had observed the same things I had. This was a big switch for me to come to this conclusion because I had not even taken Trump's candidacy seriously in the beginning.

My husband was convinced about Trump fairly early on because he noted that Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, and Trump were consistently getting 70% of the primary votes. All three were change candidates.

I strongly believe that as of today Trump is on track for a landslide victory for multiple reasons. I came to this conclusion because I take in a lot of information and look for patterns. I'm a big picture person so I analyze and synthesize information constantly. I notice things that most people never see and see the various ways they are connected. It's just the way I'm wired.

These are the reasons I see a landslide for Trump (in no particular order). None of these are enough to push him over the top again on their own, but put together I think they show a big picture win for him.

Trump will have lost almost no one who voted for him last time. People who voted solely because of the Supreme Court feel validated.

Trump will pick up a significant number of Conservatives and Christians who were uncertain and didn't take a chance on him so they voted third party or didn't vote for President. He will have met their criteria this time in terms of issues that are important to them.

Trump has a 90%+ approval rating with Republicans

The Walk Away Movement represents a significant number of formerly dependable Democrat voting blocks (minorities, gays, etc.)

The Blexit Movement

Other former Democrats with strong Youtube and social media followings who have become vocal Trump supporters such as Dave Rubin, Karlyn Borysenko, Tim Pool, etc.

The DNC released no polling results after their online convention

Support for BLM, Inc. has dropped dramatically since summer to only around 39%. They also recently scrubbed their website of a substantial number of Far Left and anti-family beliefs/policies leading me to believe that the DNC realized via polling numbers this was hurting them

Increasing numbers of people speaking out against all topics related to white fragility, anti-racism, etc. which was not happening just four to six weeks ago

Homeschooling has doubled this year. Not school from home, but legitimate homeschooling.

School choice is becoming a front burner issue for more people now that they have peeked behind the curtain of public education as it currently exists.

Many people are now fully aware of the existence of critical race theory and what it means

There are now 5 million new gun owners in 2020

Stony Brook professor, Helmut Norpoth, is predicting a Trump landslide. He correctly predicted Trump's last win.

Trump has made major inroads with the black community. In the past it was said that if a Republican could get 15% of the black vote, the Democrats could not win. I think Trump is on track to get much more than 15% of the black vote.

The combination of China - NBA - coronavirus - human rights abuses in China - Hong Kong - medical supply chain issues means many people would choose Trump to deal with China over Biden

Most people do not believe that the USA is a racist or evil country no matter how many times talking heads on TV try to tell them that it is

Most people do not believe they are racist nor do they believe their neighbors are racist no matter how many times Robin Diangelo and Ibram X. Kendi tell everyone they are

Riots and violence push people toward law and order

Trump is getting all of the law and order endorsements which means he will be getting the vast majority of those votes

Voter enthusiasm is overwhelmingly for Trump. It was watching Trump rallies streamed on YouTube that in part convinced me he was going to win in 2016.

Re: the streamed rallies on YouTube. In the past, there would be approximately 20k people watching the stream on the independent channel I use to monitor them (Right Side Broadcasting). Lately there have been 95k-120k watching each rally.

Trump is campaigning in Minnesota which means he clearly thinks he can win it

Attacking Amy Coney Barrett's adoption of her children was a big mistake

Kamala Harris is such a liability that they aren't allowing her to take questions. She was so unpopular in her own party that she dropped out before the first primary voting took place. She is incredibly unlikeable by almost any standard.

People have to choose someone to oversee the economy and Trump is more desirable than Biden

We are seeing very little polling information being pushed out which means it isn't favoring Biden

Many Trump supporters, Conservatives, and Republicans have openly admitted they will not answer a polling call or will lie.

That's my list. These are observations so take them for what they are worth. I'm not going to defend any of them since they are simply observations. People can choose to disagree if they are important or not. At this moment, it's a Trump landslide. The media is not helping by lying about this.

And speaking of Amy Coney Barrett, I wrote a piece on my website about how I think wokeness has the potential to damage NPC sororities. I've mentioned some of this before in discussions here, but when I saw the Kappa Delta Facebook meltdown over Barrett I decided to finish a post I had started. I'll share the link if anyone wants to read it.

My two cents. Your mileage may vary.

Breaking Our Bonds: How Wokeness Will Destroy National Panhellenic Conference Sororities

[What?]

Sallie, I applaud your perspective and continued willingness to make well reasoned points that have proven unpopular on this forum.

I hope that I am proven wrong, but like Ronaldo, I do not share your optimism. I am terrified of the voter fraud that MSM sweeps under the rug.

Originally Posted by Ronaldo9

Great perspective, TDSallie. I wish I shared your optimism that the Chief will win and win big. I don't but I hope you prove me massively wrong!

However, even if the Chief doesn't return to office we are still in a very enviable position. The opposition will have put in power a president who has committed to being a one-termer and who will enter into office with intensely low enthusiasm and burning skepticism from within his own party. That means, in 2024, we will not have to face an incumbent, we will be in the rare position of having a fresh election after just four years. There will be victories and losses in the next several decades of the National Reorganization Process but it is at the point that it can't be stopped by a single election that goes against us. The party is in an excellent position!



+1

[thetalady]

Originally Posted by What?

Sallie, I applaud your perspective and continued willingness to make well reasoned points that have proven unpopular on this forum.

I hope that I am proven wrong, but like Ronaldo, I do not share your optimism. I am terrified of the voter fraud that MSM sweeps under the rug.

TriDeltaSallie, loved your analysis. Thank you for your perspective. Like What?, I fear the possibility of massive voter fraud. Seeing states that are dragging out voting now to a week after Nov 3 makes it clear that this election is going to be full of fraud. Already finding large numbers of ballots trashed. Conspiracies for vote harvesting in older populations already running rampant.

[carnation]

Hey, my daughter got sent a ballot. She passed away in 2018.

[TriDeltaSallie]

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why.

[bevinpiphi]

Originally Posted by TriDeltaSallie

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why.

Within my own personal circle, of those who have stated they voted Trump in 2016, he’s losing about half of those votes, but I also recognize that my circle is not an actual cross section for voters. My dad was a “bought a red hat as soon as he could” Trump supporter for 2016 who is voting for Biden this election cycle.

[Benzgirl]

Originally Posted by bevinpiphi

Within my own personal circle, of those who have stated they voted Trump in 2016, he’s losing about half of those votes, but I also recognize that my circle is not an actual cross section for voters. My dad was a “bought a red hat as soon as he could” Trump supporter for 2016 who is voting for Biden this election cycle.

My father is a life-long Republican but saw through Trump's lies in 2016 and voted for HRC. He woke me up this morning to tell me Trump tested positive for COVID and my father hates the telephone so it must have been very important to him. I guess he falls into that 10% of Republicans that Sallie quoted as not supporting Trump, but he is highly educated and still running his consulting business at age 88.

Here is a breakdown of the Republicans in my family.

The Ohio and Georgia Republicans are all voting for Biden except one question mark. He won't discuss how he is voting but his wife put a Biden sign in their front yard and he hasn't removed it.
The Texas/Colorado Republican family members are...well...Texas Republicans and made their money from oil. I don't need to ask how they plan to vote but one has said she is sitting out this election because she doesn't like either candidate.
The Florida Republicans are voting for Biden because they are in the healthcare field (one is an MD and the other a CNP) and see first-hand how Trump mishandled COVID.

Again, not a good cross-section since it's just my family and about one-half of them are Democrats who vote country over party. Only my personal situation but I'm sure at least one new member will become agressives over this post.

[Cheerio]

Originally Posted by TriDeltaSallie

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why.

Stating the obvious, it may turn out the Electoral College does it again for Trump while the popular vote again goes to the Democrat candidate.

[bevinpiphi]

I played around on that fivethirtyeight site, entering my own predictions for how I think each state will go....and ended up with an electoral college tie

It really hinges on how just a couple of states fall, for me.

[TriDeltaSallie]

Originally Posted by What?

Sallie, I applaud your perspective and continued willingness to make well reasoned points that have proven unpopular on this forum.

I hope that I am proven wrong, but like Ronaldo, I do not share your optimism. I am terrified of the voter fraud that MSM sweeps under the rug.

I agree that voter fraud is a huge concern. Trump wins in a landslide for the reasons I've outlined (and several more points I've thought of since I published it). But, yes, there is an all-out effort to undermine the election.

A lot can happen in a month. That's why I said "as of today" I think he wins in a landslide. Something could change that and I would be the first to reassess my thinking and expectations.

[ASTalumna06]

Originally Posted by Ronaldo9

As an originalist I, of course, disagree slightly with this. I would like a 9-0 originalist court, frankly.

That said, I do agree with your position that one raw exercise of power invites the next. I would just note, however, that the Democratic Party would have the power to block and filibuster the ACB nomination right now except McConnell removed the filibuster on SCOTUS judges. He did that to make good on a promise he made to the Democrats that he would take that course of action if they used their 2011 Senate majority to remove the filibuster on Circuit and District court judges, which - despite the warning this would be the response - they did.

So, yes, we are seeing the raw exercise of power inviting the next, however, this process was set in motion - not this year - but in 2011 and by Harry Reid. In other words, were it not for an action taken by Harry Reid nine years ago, there would be no chance ACB will be confirmed the week after next as will happen.

Originally Posted by Sister Havana

Let’s remember why Reid and the Democrats changed the rules to remove the filibuster for all but Supreme Court nominations. It’s important to understand it in context. McConnell and the Republicans used the filibuster a then-unprecedented amount of times to block or stall pretty much all of Obama’s appointees. They filibustered appointees they all agreed were qualified, for no other reason than Obama was doing the appointing. They even filibustered Chuck Hagel’s nomination for Secretary of Defense - yes, that would be former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel.

The event that was really the tipping point for the rule change was when Obama nominated three judges to fill three vacant seats on the DC Circuit Court. Not only did Senate Republicans scream and yell about how Obama was court-packing (by filling existing vacancies!), but they even introduced legislation to remove those three seats from the DC Circuit so Obama could not appoint people to fill them. (It didn’t pass, obviously.) This was the climate in which the rule was changed. Harry Reid didn’t do it just for fun.

And if the filibuster hadn’t been removed during the Obama years, anyone who thinks Mitch McConnell wouldn’t have done it himself the first time Democrats tried to filibuster any of Trump’s nominees has not paid attention to Mitch McConnell.

Interestingly, I just saw this pop up tonight.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...es/3573369001/

[What?]

Originally Posted by TriDeltaSallie

I agree that voter fraud is a huge concern. Trump wins in a landslide for the reasons I've outlined (and several more points I've thought of since I published it). But, yes, there is an all-out effort to undermine the election.

A lot can happen in a month. That's why I said "as of today" I think he wins in a landslide. Something could change that and I would be the first to reassess my thinking and expectations.

Please don’t interpret my comment as any criticism of your analysis, I just worry that this rosy outlook for Trump will further galvanize the fraudsters as their brethren are facing no consequences.

Carnation, my mother-in-law has received multiple pieces of election mail for my dead (2018) father-in-law, aka her ex-husband, who had not lived at her current address since the early 2000s. This is not an anomaly as I have heard similar stories from multiple friends and family members.

[TriDeltaSallie]

Originally Posted by What?

Please don’t interpret my comment as any criticism of your analysis, I just worry that this rosy outlook for Trump will further galvanize the fraudsters as their brethren are facing no consequences.

I didn't view it as criticism at all. I'm simply laying things out as I see them. There is no way I can account for fraud. I can only deal with facts.

Facts that are harder to track include things like these.

How will the movement of people out of urban areas due to the pandemic, violence, job loss, and work-from-home impact voting in various areas across the country? Will these swing areas in a different direction enough to impact electoral votes?

There are 5 million new gun owners. It's probably safe to say a significant portion of them will vote for the candidate who supports the 2nd Amendment. But where do they live (blue versus red areas) and how will that impact outcomes with electoral votes?

Where do the Walk Away, Blexit, and moderate Democrats who have switched to supporting Trump live? Do they live in heavily red areas? Heavily blue areas? Will their switching impact electoral votes?

These are questions I haven't seen answered anywhere.

[Cheerio]

Originally Posted by What?

Carnation, my mother-in-law has received multiple pieces of election mail for my dead (2018) father-in-law, aka her ex-husband, who had not lived at her current address since the early 2000s. This is not an anomaly as I have heard similar stories from multiple friends and family members.

Receiving election mailings from candidates who have made the error of purchasing very old mailing lists happens at our home, too. Our county has, however, always been quickly up-to-date when it comes to removing deceased family members from county voting rolls. I have yet to receive one updated voter registration card or vote-by-mail reminder for the three people in our home, all legally registered voters prior to passing, who have died in the past two years.

[What?]

Originally Posted by Cheerio

Receiving election mailings from candidates who have made the error of purchasing very old mailing lists happens at our home, too. Our county has, however, always been quickly up-to-date when it comes to removing deceased family members from county voting rolls. I have yet to receive one updated voter registration card or vote-by-mail reminder for the three people in our home, all legally registered voters prior to passing, who have died in the past two years.

My previous attempt at a reply timed out, so here are the cliff notes so I can go to bed. My dead FIL does not just receive random political mailers. He, like at least 6 other individuals with whom I share/d close personal ties who have either moved or passed away well over 2 years ago, have received polling place cards and detailed instructions for voting by mail from our state DOE.