Prop 8 is to get a ruling today

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by Drolefille

And it will go to appeal, unfortunately. Although I wonder how it works when the state of California isn't the one defending it, but outside agents "on behalf of the state."

*Pages MysticCat*

Can the outside agents file the appeal on behalf of California? Are there more hoops they have to jump through?

Given the governor's and attorney general's decisions not to defend it, the court allowed the current defendants -- some groups that supported Prop 8 -- to intervene so that there would be someone to defend the suit. That means those groups are now defendants. Unless plaintiffs opposed that at the trial court and make that an issue on appeal, no more hoops regarding the parties.

It will definitely be appealed -- that was clear along, regardless of who won and who lost.

I haven't had a chance to read the (130+ page) opinion yet; I've just followed some news sources. From those, I take it that the court focused heavily on how defendants' evidence had not established a rational basis for Prop 8. A law that discriminates between people who are not part of a protected class (e.g., racial or ethnic minorities) does not violate the equal protection clause if it has a rational basis. This could good and bad for the opponents of Prop 8 and similar measures.

On the "good" side, it means that the appeals court may show more deference to the trial court. Questions of law are considered anew by an appeals court, but for questions of fact/evidence, deference is usually given to the trial court. Findings of fact are generally harder to overturn on appeal than conclusions of law.

On the "bad" side, it doesn't mean that the trial court found that same-sex marriage bans are per se unconstitutional. Rather, he found that these defendants had not shown a rational basis for this ban.

Though the Ninth Circuit is traditionally more liberal/progressive/choose your term, I wouldn't automatically assume that it will affirm the trial court's decision. We'll have to wait and see.

If they reverse the trial judge, the case may well stop there. The Supreme Court may not see a need to step in. On the other hand if they affirm it, I think it's headed to the Supreme Court. Unless the make-up of the Court changes between now and then by someone other than a more liberal justice or Justice Kennedy leaving, I think the odds in SCOTUS definitely favor the proponants of Prop 8.

FWIW.