Feds to file lawsuit over Arizona immigration law

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by AOII Angel

I thought this deserved to be posted from your link:
[/LIST]After being here for two months, Phoenix is a very clean, safe city. I feel much more safe here than I did in Baltimore.

Those stats are essentially meaningless without accounting for causation/correlation problems, though.

[Drolefille]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Those stats are essentially meaningless without accounting for causation/correlation problems, though.

Sure, but no one has showed that illegal immigration leads to an increase in crime either. They just flash the stats.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by Drolefille

Sure, but no one has showed that illegal immigration leads to an increase in crime either. They just flash the stats.

Right - I'll agree with that completely. For both sides, crime stats are the dog and pony show to avoid discussing the real problems with policy on either side (namely, that they don't address incentives/motivation for illegal entry - it's easier to build a fence than start from scratch).

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by starang21

i think about 99 percent of the cities in the country are safer than baltimore, lol.

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Right - I'll agree with that completely. For both sides, crime stats are the dog and pony show to avoid discussing the real problems with policy on either side (namely, that they don't address incentives/motivation for illegal entry - it's easier to build a fence than start from scratch).

Yeah, but it's a lot easier to feel safe when the crime rate is low. People feel safe around their families, but statistically, you're more likely to be killed by your own family member than an illegal immigrant.

BTW, I felt safer where I lived in Baltimore than I did in Shreveport, LA.

[Drolefille]

Originally Posted by AOII Angel

Yeah, but it's a lot easier to feel safe when the crime rate is low. People feel safe around their families, but statistically, you're more likely to be killed by your own family member than an illegal immigrant.

BTW, I felt safer where I lived in Baltimore than I did in Shreveport, LA.

You're messing with my head woman. I was trying to quote you and your post went poof.

Anyway, most crimes seem to be that way. I'm not actually sure which crimes are more likely to be perpetrated by a stranger rather than by a family member or acquaintance. Murder, rape, child abuse, all are committed by those 'closest' to you far more often than by the random person on the street, but most people seem to focus on the stranger in the van, the creep in the alley, the illegal immigrant on the street as the person you should be afraid of. Maybe because it's just too hard to believe you could know someone who would do terrible things.

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by Drolefille

You're messing with my head woman. I was trying to quote you and your post went poof.

Anyway, most crimes seem to be that way. I'm not actually sure which crimes are more likely to be perpetrated by a stranger rather than by a family member or acquaintance. Murder, rape, child abuse, all are committed by those 'closest' to you far more often than by the random person on the street, but most people seem to focus on the stranger in the van, the creep in the alley, the illegal immigrant on the street as the person you should be afraid of. Maybe because it's just too hard to believe you could know someone who would do terrible things.

Sorry, didn't want to leave out the other post.

As for causation/correlation, it's hard to argue about that when the republicans backing this bill in AZ are arguing that the crime rate is why they want this bill. The crime rate is DOWN! The crime is not because of illegal immigration which is also DOWN! It is as KSig RC said, "a dog and pony show."

[PiKA2001]

Originally Posted by AOII Angel

Sorry, didn't want to leave out the other post.

As for causation/correlation, it's hard to argue about that when the republicans backing this bill in AZ are arguing that the crime rate is why they want this bill. The crime rate is DOWN! The crime is not because of illegal immigration which is also DOWN! It is as KSig RC said, "a dog and pony show."

The bill was really sold on fear of potential violence spilling over into the U.S. It hasn't really happened yet, but that doesn't mean it can't ( see Bob Krentz). I blame the drug cartel war going on in Mexico and the fear generated from it as pushing the anti-illegal agenda going on today as well as the current recession. History proves that we haven't been the most hospitable to immigrants during economic turmoil.

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Right - I'll agree with that completely. For both sides, crime stats are the dog and pony show to avoid discussing the real problems with policy on either side (namely, that they don't address incentives/motivation for illegal entry - it's easier to build a fence than start from scratch).

Ding ding ding.

[PiKA2001]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Those stats are essentially meaningless without accounting for causation/correlation problems, though.

I was thinking that when they compared the current violent crime stats of Detroit, which has been economically depressed for generations, to San Antonio, which has economically grown by leaps and bounds during the last decade. I think San Antonios lower crime rate has more to do with the economic opportunities available for it's residents than anything else.