FiveThirtyEight.com

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by UGAalum94

I don't know. Again, I think there are too many new variables to know for sure. If we accept what you've said about an unprecedented amount of race related level-pulling effect, isn't it going to be particularly hard to measure in advance?

YES, which is why I noted it was "unprecedented" and "unmeasurable."

However, other effects that you noted are completely wrapped within other elections, and thus make for a worthy comparison study.

Remember - supposedly unmeasurable race/gender effects were rampant throughout the Democratic primaries, and Silver's model did a fantastic job mapping those (better than every mainstream media source). So . . . yeah. Feel free to wonder about the numbers, but there's a good chance your Spidey-Sense is tingling for reasons other than a lack of numerical or scientific accuracy of the assay.

[UGAalum94]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

YES, which is why I noted it was "unprecedented" and "unmeasurable."

However, other effects that you noted are completely wrapped within other elections, and thus make for a worthy comparison study.

Remember - supposedly unmeasurable race/gender effects were rampant throughout the Democratic primaries, and Silver's model did a fantastic job mapping those (better than every mainstream media source). So . . . yeah. Feel free to wonder about the numbers, but there's a good chance your Spidey-Sense is tingling for reasons other than a lack of numerical or scientific accuracy of the assay.

I apologize but could you spell out for me what effects you think were previously measurable and wrapped within other elections and which you find unmeasurable in this election. I don't doubt it's my own fault, but I can't seem to tease them out. Seriously, I'm not trying to snark; I'm not following your distinction and I'd like to.

I've tried to be pretty clear about how little insight my Spidey-Sense or any other sense provides me on this issue, other than to say it's going to surprise the hell out of me if the margin is as big as the one last week.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by UGAalum94

I apologize but could you spell out for me what effects you think were previously measurable and wrapped within other elections and which you find unmeasurable in this election. I don't doubt it's my own fault, but I can't seem to tease them out. Seriously, I'm not trying to snark; I'm not following your distinction and I'd like to.

I can if you're really that loose on what we're discussing, but going through 538.com will actually answer these questions for you - I don't have time right now, but I'll look into it if I get a minute.

However, I think I can basically answer in the 'negative' as it were: the only difference between this election and previous is the existence of a black man. We can account for economic problems, wartime, etc. by using similarity comparisons. So literally everything else will be accounted for - even if incompletely or without realizing it.

Originally Posted by UGAalum94

I've tried to be pretty clear about how little insight my Spidey-Sense or any other sense provides me on this issue, other than to say it's going to surprise the hell out of me if the margin is as big as the one last week.

And I completely agree - last week was probably the high/low point of the election process, depending on which side you're on. However, narrowing after this point is normal (and accounted for), so the odds take this into account. It's still probably a 19:2 shot against McCain.

[UGAalum94]

I just wanted to note that I'm fivethirtyeight believer now. I know I'm arrive after the party is over, but I'm really impressed at how close their projections were. I'm waiting to see finalized votes, and then I plan to look at each one to see how close they were for each race, or at least some of the more interesting races to me.

It's kind of interesting that we didn't seem to see the big influx of new voters or really exceptionally high turn out apparently at least in most places.

[AGDee]

He really gained a lot of credibility over time and the accuracy of his predictions was pretty amazing. The statisticians I work with were very impressed with his models and began following him every day.

I saw a list (maybe on CNN, maybe on MSNBC web site) of the top 10 key people in this election and Neil Silver was on the list. Bright guy.

[LightBulb]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Silver's model did a fantastic job mapping those (better than every mainstream media source).

Quick question: Does anyone know if Nate Silver of 538 is related to Josh Silver of Free Press?