Second Presidential Debate

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by ThetaDancer

www.fivethirtyeight.com is a site I really like, and I thought they had a pretty good post-debate post, plus some post-debate polls and recalculated projections, with several links that might be of interest.

I like that site as well. Nate Silver did an impressive job predicting what would happen in the Democratic primaries in Indiana and NC.

[KSigkid]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

I like that site as well. Nate Silver did an impressive job predicting what would happen in the Democratic primaries in Indiana and NC.

Slightly off-topic, but Nate is also one of the best baseball statistical analysts out there. I first became aware of his work on Baseball Prospectus (www.baseballprospectus.com). If you're a baseball fan, you should definitely look up some of his stuff.

/end hijack

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by KSigkid

Slightly off-topic, but Nate is also one of the best baseball statistical analysts out there. I first became aware of his work on Baseball Prospectus (www.baseballprospectus.com). If you're a baseball fan, you should definitely look up some of his stuff.

/end hijack

Not really off topic. His analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com is, as I understand it, based on his baseball statistical work.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

Not really off topic. His analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com is, as I understand it, based on his baseball statistical work.

The best part of Silver's work is that his baseball work and political work are actually pretty different - conceptually, they're based on similarity modeling, but the implementation is pretty different (and actually, his political models are genius because they use pretty simple assumptions to come up with a sophisticated model, whereas PECOTA is a massive sprawling awesome mess).

The second best part? The Burrito Bracket. I'm a massive fan of the dude's work - very impressive, and I'm very jealous I didn't think of the 538 method first, even while upset that he hasn't written nearly as much on BP as a result. Definitely better than any of the MSM polling sources.