Political Experience: What Matters, and Why?

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by Kevin

My problem with Obama has nothing to do with the man and everything to do with his politics. I do, for what it's worth, think he's far and away the more genuine of the two candidates in that he probably believes what his writers are putting in his speeches. The new McCain is far and away, IMHO, more of the "empty-suit" between the two candidates.

I see (and respect) your point, but I can't agree with it. If judgment and character matter to me, I'm not voting for an "empty suit," which to me indicates choosing political expediency over character and the courage of one's convictions.

The empty suit doesn't scare me as much as the liberal wing of the court having a solid majority though.

Originally Posted by KSigkid

Not to get too off topic, but I think it is more likely that Stevens, Ginsburg and Souter leave than Scalia (especially if Obama wins the election - I've read that Ginsburg would leave during the next Democratic term, and that Souter is eyeing retirement). The wild card would be Kennedy, but I could see him as being someone who would stay on the Court until they had to wheel him out.

I think you're right. I don't see Roberts, Thomas or Alito -- all age 60 or younger -- going anywhere anytime soon. Meanwhile, Stevens is 88 and Ginsburg, whose health has not been good, is 75. Scalia and Kennedy are both 72, but provided his health holds out (and I know of nothing at this point to suggest it won't), I don't see Scalia retiring anytime soon, and probably not Kennedy either. Breyer (70) I don't know.

I think it's likely to be at least 2 or 3 more presidential terms before there is any real chance of the balance of the court shifting.

[KSigkid]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

I think you're right. I don't see Roberts, Thomas or Alito -- all age 60 or younger -- going anywhere anytime soon. Meanwhile, Stevens is 88 and Ginsburg, whose health has not been good, is 75. Scalia and Kennedy are both 72, but provided his health holds out (and I know of nothing at this point to suggest it won't), I don't see Scalia retiring anytime soon, and probably not Kennedy either. Breyer (70) I don't know.

I think it's likely to be at least 2 or 3 more presidential terms before there is any real chance of the balance of the court shifting.

I read somewhere that Ginsburg will not retire during a Republican administration. She's still an extremely sharp questioner from the bench, so I could see her staying through the next administration (although I still think Scalia will stick around longer than her).

Part of me thinks Stevens will stick around to break Douglas' record on the bench; he too is still quite active during oral arguments, and his opinions are still sharp (no matter what you think of their outcomes), so hopefully he'll have a better end of the bench than Douglas or some of the other long-timers.

[Kevin]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

I see (and respect) your point, but I can't agree with it. If judgment and character matter to me, I'm not voting for an "empty suit," which to me indicates choosing political expediency over character and the courage of one's convictions.

Like I said, judgment and character aren't the most important things to me and even if I was to stipulate that Obama had judgment and character in spades, I still wouldn't vote for him based upon the direction he'd take this country and the sort of folks he'd put on the bench.

With respect to the ages of the 4 typically liberal justices on the Court, I never even considered them as I'm not so worried about them being replaced by someone who would tend to vote the same way as I'm worried about one of the 4 conservatives (no, I don't think Kennedy is classifiable as anything) being replaced by someone who would give the liberals a solid 5/6 vote majority. Scalia is 72, as you said, so another 4/8 years might be iffy for him, and none of the justices are really young. Anything can happen, and that concerns me.

[KSigkid]

Originally Posted by Kevin

With respect to the ages of the 4 typically liberal justices on the Court, I never even considered them as I'm not so worried about them being replaced by someone who would tend to vote the same way as I'm worried about one of the 4 conservatives (no, I don't think Kennedy is classifiable as anything) being replaced by someone who would give the liberals a solid 5/6 vote majority. Scalia is 72, as you said, so another 4/8 years might be iffy for him, and none of the justices are really young. Anything can happen, and that concerns me.

I would imagine Scalia has a similar plan as Ginsburg, in that he's not going to leave the bench unless he believes that his replacement will be someone who subscribes to the same school of thought. Thomas, Alito and Roberts are fairly young, and I don't think any of them have any serious health problems (beyond Roberts' health concerns).

If Obama and Biden are elected, I think their first SCOTUS pick could be VERY interesting. Biden was one of the leaders of the charge against Bork, so I could see the Republicans putting up a big fight for just that reason.