I think this is the key part: "Assuming the IOC is committed to a real investigation and not some dog and pony show"
This is an article from July about the Chinese gymnasts' ages.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/sp...=1&oref=slogin
"Zhang Hongliang, an official with the Chinese gymnastics federation, said Friday that perhaps Chinese reporters and provincial sports authorities made mistakes in listing He’s and Jiang’s birth dates differently from the dates given on their passports."
So if the IOC isn't doing a real investigation (i.e. they're only going through the charade of an investigation to try to quiet criticism of the IOC), I could see China claiming that the spreadsheets on the Chinese government website also had typos...even though it's clearly obvious to everyone around the world what the truth is. And with the Chinese government control of media and documents, who is going to be able to prove for sure that the government website didn't have typos? Unless, there is a whistle-blower from inside...but we all know that that's going to be highly unlikely.