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I hope there will be tape of the whole race in future to review- including from underwater- but stroke length and timing has a huge impact in short races. At the various paces where I swim, I have a solid sense of the stroke count per pool length and how to finish a length- so these guys are masters of that.
The trick with fly is that you cannot easily change the length going into the end of the pool to adjust for any differences. It is tough with any stroke- but the mechanics of the butterfly make big last minute changes impossible.
In other words- Cavick could not have added an extra stroke to win, and Phelps is VERY fortunate he had time to sneak in a half stroke and slam the wall. As great as Phelps is, I really do think luck played a role in this race because he was clearly not the fastest guy in the pool for this event.
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