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  #1  
Old 06-18-2008, 11:24 AM
MysticCat MysticCat is offline
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Originally Posted by DaemonSeid View Post
it won't be difficult at all, it's been done all along. Each primary they divvied up the totals by race and gender and that part has never ever played suck a front seat role until this election season.
That's a different question, though. It will be easy enough, for example, to break down how many whites voted for McCain/against Obama, but it won't be nearly as easy to break down how many of those whites voted against Obama because of his race vs how many voted against him because of his politics or because he's a Democrat and they always vote Republican, Libertarian, Green, or whatever.

The only way to ascertain how much his race played a part in their decision is by asking those white voters something along the lines of "why will you/did you vote against Obama" or "did Obama's race affect your decision not to vote for him." I'm guessing a significant lack of candor, and maybe even of self-awareness, could come into play in answering that question.
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  #2  
Old 06-18-2008, 11:29 AM
nittanyalum nittanyalum is offline
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Originally Posted by MysticCat View Post
I'm guessing a significant lack of candor, and maybe even of self-awareness, could come into play in answering that question.
Co-sign. A good number of people will give the "right" answer to a pollster but vote a different way in the privacy and anonymity of a voting booth.
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Old 06-18-2008, 11:39 AM
DSTCHAOS DSTCHAOS is offline
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Originally Posted by nittanyalum View Post
Co-sign. A good number of people will give the "right" answer to a pollster but vote a different way in the privacy and anonymity of a voting booth.
Researchers take into account the "need to feel like a good person"/"place yourself in a good light infront of others" when they do this type of research.

Taking that margin of error into consideration, the results will still be about 90% accurate. Plus, there is always more than one researcher or research engine conducting this type of research on a macro or micro level. So taken together we can have a pretty accurate picture of what's going on.
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Last edited by DSTCHAOS; 06-18-2008 at 11:41 AM.
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  #4  
Old 06-18-2008, 11:39 AM
nittanyalum nittanyalum is offline
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Originally Posted by DSTCHAOS View Post
Researchers take into account the "need to feel like a good person"/"place yourself in a good light infront of others" when they do this type of research.

Taking that margin of error into consideration, the results will still be about 90% accurate. Plus, there is always more than one researcher or research engine conducting this type of research on a macro and micro level. So taken together we can have a pretty accurate picture of what's going on.
That will be interesting, then!
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  #5  
Old 06-18-2008, 12:00 PM
DaemonSeid DaemonSeid is offline
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Originally Posted by MysticCat View Post
That's a different question, though. It will be easy enough, for example, to break down how many whites voted for McCain/against Obama, but it won't be nearly as easy to break down how many of those whites voted against Obama because of his race vs how many voted against him because of his politics or because he's a Democrat and they always vote Republican, Libertarian, Green, or whatever.

The only way to ascertain how much his race played a part in their decision is by asking those white voters something along the lines of "why will you/did you vote against Obama" or "did Obama's race affect your decision not to vote for him." I'm guessing a significant lack of candor, and maybe even of self-awareness, could come into play in answering that question.

I guess that just leaves West Virginia
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