Politics 2008:The Caucuses and The Dem/Rep Conventions

ladygreek · #1 02-06-2008, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mccoyred

Every day I am more and more impressed with Senator Obama. With all that is at stake on tomorrow, he AND his wife took the time to visit Delaware (with its measly two Democratic delegates) in the past week; Michelle came on Thursday and Barack came yesterday. I believe that this shows that he cares about everyone, not just the big money or big vote states. Of course there were people attending the rallys from other states like PA, MD and NJ which is also a Super Tuesday state.

He also took the time to come to MN Saturday to a standing room only crowd of 20,000. And it paid off.

Hillary has ticked off some of the old Dem guard here by coming on Sunday to a small venue and acting as if MN really didn't matter. We may not have a huge number of delegates, but she forgets this is the home of Humphrey and Mondale. And those old guard (Humphrey's descendents) still have friends in the party. Bad strategy Hill and Bill.

Oh btw, in spite of Super Tuesday, I am still and independent and have yet to choose a candidate since Edwards dropped out. But an Obama/Edwards ticket does appeal to me. But I need Obama to be more concrete about his plan for universal health care.

mccoyred · #2 02-06-2008, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ladygreek

He also took the time to come to MN Saturday to a standing room only crowd of 20,000. And it paid off.

Hillary has ticked off some of the old Dem guard here by coming on Sunday to a small venue and acting as if MN really didn't matter. We may not have a huge number of delegates, but she forgets this is the home of Humphrey and Mondale. And those old guard (Humphrey's descendents) still have friends in the party. Bad strategy Hill and Bill.

Oh btw, in spite of Super Tuesday, I am still and independent and have yet to choose a candidate since Edwards dropped out. But an Obama/Edwards ticket does appeal to me. But I need Obama to be more concrete about his plan for universal health care.

It paid off in Delaware, too

Honeykiss1974 · #3 02-07-2008, 01:54 PM

McCain seals GOP nod as Romney suspends
By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - John McCain effectively sealed the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday as chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his faltering presidential campaign. "I must now stand aside, for our party and our country," Romney prepared to tell conservatives.

http://www.kansas.com/news/updates/story/304270.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is just my opinion but I do think with him leaving, that McCain is the most likely Republican candidate. So IMO, I think if the Democrats want a presidential victory, Hillary Clinton can not be the Democratic candidate.

This race is getting more interesting by the moment.

TonyB06 · #4 02-07-2008, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honeykiss1974

This is just my opinion but I do think with him leaving, that McCain is the most likely Republican candidate. So IMO, I think if the Democrats want a presidential victory, Hillary Clinton can not be the Democratic candidate.

...just curious, what are you basing your opinion on?

WenD08 · #5 02-07-2008, 05:43 PM

i have a friend/political buddy who feels the same way. she really believes that since HC is such a polarizing figure, she cannot be the Dem nominee. HC will drive away Independents, Dems, Repubs, etc.
i read a poll that stated that Dems will vote for whoever the nominee is. i believe that many are that pragmatic enough to go with the last person standing.

TonyB06 · #6 02-07-2008, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WenD08

i have a friend/political buddy who feels the same way. she really believes that since HC is such a polarizing figure, she cannot be the Dem nominee. HC will drive away Independents, Dems, Repubs, etc.
i read a poll that stated that Dems will vote for whoever the nominee is. i believe that many are that pragmatic enough to go with the last person standing.

So who do you side with, your friend/political buddy or the poll which says pragmatism will carry the day?

...correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't HRC wins all been in closed primary states thus far?

both HRC and Obama, as does McCain, have vulnurabilities, but the 3-to-1 Democratic turnout in their primaries vs. the Republicans gives the Ds a bit more margin to figure this thing out, IMO.

Ten/Four · #7 02-07-2008, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyB06

both HRC and Obama, as does McCain, have vulnurabilities, but the 3-to-1 Democratic turnout in their primaries vs. the Republicans gives the Ds a bit more margin to figure this thing out, IMO.

And, don't forget that very conservative Republicans don't like McCain.

mccoyred · #8 02-07-2008, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyB06

So who do you side with, your friend/political buddy or the poll which says pragmatism will carry the day?

...correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't HRC wins all been in closed primary states thus far?

And Obama has won in both closed AND open primaries AND caucuses AND in all parts of the country. Based on contests up through SuperTuesday, Obama clearly has the wider appeal in the Democratic party as well as among Independents and Liberal Republicans.
He does need to work on older folks and white women. Ted and Oprah need to step up their games...

Honeykiss1974 · #9 02-07-2008, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WenD08

i have a friend/political buddy who feels the same way. she really believes that since HC is such a polarizing figure, she cannot be the Dem nominee. HC will drive away Independents, Dems, Repubs, etc.
i read a poll that stated that Dems will vote for whoever the nominee is. i believe that many are that pragmatic enough to go with the last person standing.

Yeah, what she said. Many Republicans, even those that are not apart of the "conservative right" just do not get warm fuzzies with HRC. Honestly I'm sure some of that probably is leftover feelings from her husband's presidency too. I'm not saying that she can't be the Dem nominee but I do believe that if she is, she will not have the ability to cause more moderate Repubs to "crossover" I really believe you will have people vote for the Republican candidate (even if it wasn't McCain) because they just don't want to vote for her - another Clinton.

mccoyred · #10 02-07-2008, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honeykiss1974

McCain seals GOP nod as Romney suspends
By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - John McCain effectively sealed the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday as chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his faltering presidential campaign. "I must now stand aside, for our party and our country," Romney prepared to tell conservatives.

http://www.kansas.com/news/updates/story/304270.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is just my opinion but I do think with him leaving, that McCain is the most likely Republican candidate. So IMO, I think if the Democrats want a presidential victory, Hillary Clinton can not be the Democratic candidate.

This race is getting more interesting by the moment.

Frankly, I think the party told Romney to drop out. Super Tuesday was wayyyy to divided. Many of the winners could not be announced until over 95% of the votes were cast, much later than most Democratic contests. The Republican party needs to declare a 'conservative' and a 'centrist'. Besides, Huckabee proved very strong in the South so he wasn't going anywhere!

AKA2D '91 · #11 02-10-2008, 06:32 PM

Trouble inside the Clinton camp?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/...mpaign_manager

Campaign manager has been replaced.

Ten/Four · #12 02-10-2008, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AKA2D '91

Trouble inside the Clinton camp?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/...mpaign_manager

Campaign manager has been replaced.

This is usually a bad sign.

Next up is Maryland, Virginia, and DC. I can't wait.

AKA2D '91 · #13 02-11-2008, 09:56 PM

Michelle Obama will be Larry King's guest in a few minutes. The show will repeat later on tonight (11 PM Central time).

Ten/Four · #14 02-12-2008, 09:14 PM

Obama is crushing Clinton in VA. The Maryland polls are extended to 9:30 pm due to weather.

mccoyred · #15 02-12-2008, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ten/Four

Obama is crushing Clinton in VA. The Maryland polls are extended to 9:30 pm due to weather.

Per CNN projections, he swept the entire Potomac area. In reviewing the exit polls for VA and MD (it looks like DC had a caucus not a primary per se), Billary is very strong with her own demographic - older white women Democrats - but in all other demographics, Obama won their votes although a few were close like the overall white vote (Virginia - Clinton=51%, Obama 46%; Maryland - Clinton=49%, Obama 50%). White women made up the single largest demographic in both areas (Maryland=34%, Virginia=35%) but it still wasn't enough to put her over the top because she only received a slight majority of those votes. Next stop Hawaii (Obama's home state), Washington State and Wisconsin.

The Republican race is a non-contest with McCain running away with the nomination.