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My understanding was that she was on covert status (the fact that she wasn't oversees on assignment is irrelevant). But I do agree that they won't be able to prove that he broke the law. They have to be able to show that he intended to identify an agent he knew was on covert status. So far they haven't been able to do that.
However, there is another issue. Bush said that he would fire anyone in the administration who he found to be a source of the leak and clearly Rove was. He may not have intended to reveal a covert agent, but he did in fact do so. Bush has now backed himself into a serious corner. If he doesn't fire him, it's going to seem like Bush only takes national security seriously when it's not his buddy who is getting fired.
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