Election 2008

[BetteDavisEyes]

Originally Posted by UGAalum94

Don't you think it's post convention bounce? Or did you expect it to have opened to a double digit lead?

Huh. I think it's a post convention bounce however, I also think that this election will be a lot closer than people realize.

[SWTXBelle]

Originally Posted by UGAalum94

Don't you think it's post convention bounce? Or did you expect it to have opened to a double digit lead?

I'd say the convention bounces cancelled each other out - and really, the McCain campaign was approaching zombie, night of the living dead, d.o.a. status before Palin. Love her or hate her, she certainly energized the McCain campaign.

And yes, given the current approval ratings of the President, I would think the democratic candidate would have pulled further ahead at this point. (Even if it wasn't Obama - but I've always said if there is a way to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory, the Democrats will do it!)

I too think this will be a close one.

[KSigkid]

Originally Posted by SWTXBelle

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. If you had told me a month ago that McCain would be polling as close to Obama as he is now, I'd have laughed at you.

It's going to be a close election. This recent push has been the post-Republican Convention bounce, but I don't expect either candidate to open up much of a lead.

[UGAalum94]

I hope it's a close one with a slight McCain win because I don't think I can realistically hope for a big McCain win, unless something huge happens before November.

What I feel like I don't know in trying to assess things is who is actually going to bother to go to the polls on election day.

It's one thing to say you're a likely voter if someone calls to poll you, join a facebook group, or otherwise support a candidate before the election; it's another to take the time to wait in line to vote on election day. (Campaign donations probably really say something, but it's in the number of distinct givers rather than in total amount, I hope.)

I tend to think the McCain/Palin voters are older and I'd be really surprised if someone who was a first time voter was attracted to their campaign. You have to have a certain cynical, immunity, probably created by years of failed campaign rhetoric, to be willing to resist the Obama campaign's message, I think.

It just comes down to whether enough Obama voters bother to show up in November.

[BetteDavisEyes]

MSNBC dropped Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews as election coverage. They were replaced by David Gregory.

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by SWTXBelle

I'd say the convention bounces cancelled each other out - and really, the McCain campaign was approaching zombie, night of the living dead, d.o.a. status before Palin. Love her or hate her, she certainly energized the McCain campaign.

Completely agree.

Originally Posted by a.e.B.O.T.

I felt the attacks on Obama during the RNC where paper thin and repetitive. That is not the Republican party I am use to.

I've been interested in the TV ads I've being seeing. I've yet to see a McCain ad that tells me why I should vote for McCain -- they're all about why I shouldn't vote for Obama. Granted, I'm used to that in GOP campaigns, and I know that's how it's too often done (on both sides), but I can't muster any respect for McCain for doing it.

C'mon -- tell us why we should vote for you, not why we shouldn't vote for the other guy. The Obama ads I'm seeing are doing that; McCain should be able to make his own case, too.

[UGAalum94]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

Completely agree.

I've been interested in the TV ads I've being seeing. I've yet to see a McCain ad that tells me why I should vote for McCain -- they're all about why I shouldn't vote for Obama. Granted, I'm used to that in GOP campaigns, and I know that's how it's too often done (on both sides), but I can't muster any respect for McCain for doing it.

C'mon -- tell us why we should vote for you, not why we shouldn't vote for the other guy. The Obama ads I'm seeing are doing that; McCain should be able to make his own case, too.

It seems to me that McCain has a much more complicated sale to make: we'll change just enough that we'll get the economy out of this slump and make American better and certainly won't just be like Bush, but we won't change as much as Obama. It's hard to run as the more conservative candidate when you have to work hard not to communicate "we'll give you more of the same" because the current situation is wildly unpopular.

In contrast, if you're running as a member of the more liberal party, you can sell optimism and change. You simply have to identify problems and suggest solutions that may or may not work, with no need to address the past; it just seems like an easier and more attractive message to get out there. I do think the Obama could have been a lot more negative than he has been, but avoiding going negative is part of his campaign, right?

[KSigkid]

Originally Posted by BetteDavisEyes

MSNBC dropped Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews as election coverage. They were replaced by David Gregory.

I posted this in the thread on the subject; I think it's a good move if MSNBC is trying to move towards a hard news outlook on the election. Olbermann is essentially a liberal Rush, and while that has a place on network TV, he's not a newsman. Gregory is a very good political reporter who 99% does a good job over covering the issues.