Not a Gaffe: A Fundamental Misunderstanding of Iraq

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by preciousjeni

Oh, but it did.

OK - explain how . . . since his polling numbers weren't affected, it made few if any national headlines, and it is all but forgotten in the minds of 90+% of voters.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

OK - explain how . . . since his polling numbers weren't affected, it made few if any national headlines, and it is all but forgotten in the minds of 90+% of voters.

Bump for Jeni - seriously, I'm curious about this, since I feel like it is exactly the same thing.

[preciousjeni]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Bump for Jeni - seriously, I'm curious about this, since I feel like it is exactly the same thing.

Woops! Sorry about that. Obama's numbers have been declining a bit and he has been receiving more and more negative publicity. His misstatements are not going unnoticed.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by preciousjeni

Woops! Sorry about that. Obama's numbers have been declining a bit and he has been receiving more and more negative publicity. His misstatements are not going unnoticed.

Correlation does not equal causation, and this still does not explain the specific link I questioned earlier, although I see what you're saying - this seems a bit dismissive, to be honest.

Besides this, I think there is a sea of difference between "declining a bit" and "shake up his campaign's foundation" (which is how you described it). Negative publicity could be purely based on the natural publicity (or smear) push by the opposition at this point in the election cycle, and I see no evidence that his recanting on his promise to participate in the publicly-funded campaign finance program has had any effect whatsoever or that the average person even a.) knows it happened or b.) what it means as far as credibility or strategy.

[preciousjeni]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Besides this, I think there is a sea of difference between "declining a bit" and "shake up his campaign's foundation" (which is how you described it).

I said shake up his campaign's foundation "a bit." McCain has been hitting Obama harder than ever to illustrate the differences between their military/foreign relations experience. There wouldn't be as great a need to do so if he'd had a clean run on his military/foreign relations experience. He has had to overcompensate for the blunders he's made in speaking on issues he should know about.

As I mentioned, I don't see his blunders disqualifying him or changing the way his supporters view him, but they do cause problems for the campaign and the way he markets himself.

Negative publicity could be purely based on the natural publicity (or smear) push by the opposition at this point in the election cycle, and I see no evidence that his recanting on his promise to participate in the publicly-funded campaign finance program has had any effect whatsoever or that the average person even a.) knows it happened or b.) what it means as far as credibility or strategy.

Obama is no longer that far ahead of McCain in the polls despite a healthy headstart. You don't think that has anything to do with the things Obama has said and done?

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by preciousjeni

McCain has been hitting Obama harder than ever to illustrate the differences between their military/foreign relations experience. There wouldn't be as great a need to do so if he'd had a clean run on his military/foreign relations experience. He has had to overcompensate for the blunders he's made in speaking on issues he should know about.

As I mentioned, I don't see his blunders disqualifying him or changing the way his supporters view him, but they do cause problems for the campaign and the way he markets himself.

You say this like it is fact, when it's actually opinion. Can you back this up with specific instances? I understand that's kind of a tall order, but I just don't see it, and I'd love to know where you're coming from.

Actually, let me rephrase - I can see what you're saying here, and I think it's certainly possible. I just don't share your opinion that it is actually happening in the court of public opinion.

Originally Posted by preciousjeni

Obama is no longer that far ahead of McCain in the polls despite a healthy headstart. You don't think that has anything to do with the things Obama has said and done?

There is a massive difference in saying "the things Obama has said and done" and noting a specific issue such as his campaign finance 180 - that's my point: it's platitudes at this point, not specific issues or feelings.

Because of that, unless there is a pattern of mistakes like this for McCain, I highly doubt the instance noted in the article will really matter in a substantive fashion (or represent a "shake up").

[preciousjeni]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Because of that, unless there is a pattern of mistakes like this for McCain, I highly doubt the instance noted in the article will really matter in a substantive fashion (or represent a "shake up").

It's possible that I completely misread the original article, but it seemed like it was saying that this IS a pattern for McCain. And, it's a pattern that is backed up elsewhere.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11939.html

[DaemonSeid]

Originally Posted by preciousjeni

Woops! Sorry about that. Obama's numbers have been declining a bit and he has been receiving more and more negative publicity. His misstatements are not going unnoticed.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's lead over John McCain, having reached a nine percentage point margin a few days ago, has been reduced for the second Gallup report in a row, and is now at a 6-point, 47% to 41%, margin among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 26-28.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109138/Ga...McCain-41.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and moved into a front-running position for the general presidential election in early June, he has seen his standing versus John McCain improve among voters in red states, blue states, and competitive (or purple) states. Obama has gained at least 3 points in the Obama-McCain gap in all three state groupings compared with voter sentiments in March through May.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Ob...ince-June.aspx