Russian scholar says US will collapse - next year

[DaemonSeid]

By MIKE ECKEL
MOSCOW - If you're inclined to believe Igor Panarin, and the Kremlin wouldn't mind if you did, then President Barack Obama will order martial law this year, the U.S. will split into six rump-states before 2011, and Russia and China will become the backbones of a new world order.

Panarin might be easy to ignore but for the fact that he is a dean at the Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and a regular on Russia's state-guided TV channels. And his predictions fit into the anti-American story line of the Kremlin leadership.

"There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010," Panarin told dozens of students, professors and diplomats Tuesday at the Diplomatic Academy - a lecture the ministry pointedly invited The Associated Press and other foreign media to attend.

The prediction from Panarin, a former spokesman for Russia's Federal Space Agency and reportedly an ex-KGB analyst, meshes with the negative view of the U.S. that has been flowing from the Kremlin in recent years, in particular from Vladimir Putin.

Putin, the former president who is now prime minister, has likened the United States to Nazi Germany's Third Reich and blames Washington for the global financial crisis that has pounded the Russian economy.

Panarin didn't give many specifics on what underlies his analysis, mostly citing newspapers, magazines and other open sources.

He also noted he had been predicting the demise of the world's wealthiest country for more than a decade now.

But he said the recent economic turmoil in the U.S. and other "social and cultural phenomena" led him to nail down a specific timeframe for "The End" - when the United States will break up into six autonomous regions and Alaska will revert to Russian control.

Panarin argued that Americans are in moral decline, saying their great psychological stress is evident from school shootings, the size of the prison population and the number of gay men.

Turning to economic woes, he cited the slide in major stock indexes, the decline in U.S. gross domestic product and Washington's bailout of banking giant Citigroup as evidence that American dominance of global markets has collapsed.



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The sky is falling

The sky is falling

Run out into the streets and repeat.

[UofISigKap]

Originally Posted by DaemonSeid

...when the United States will break up into six autonomous regions and Alaska will revert to Russian control.

So, how will these regions be divided anyway? Are they going to use the large NCAA regions? If so I need to make sure that I live in a region I really like then... Hmm, do I make the move back to the Big Ten region or stay in the SEC? (Can you tell March Madness is on the mind?)

[moe.ron]

The Republic of the Big East

[agzg]

Originally Posted by moe.ron

The Republic of the Big East

Pittsburgh as the capital?

[KSigkid]

Originally Posted by alphagamzetagam

Pittsburgh as the capital?

Eh, I would say Connecticut would be the capital this year

Of course, that all could change on Saturday...

[agzg]

Originally Posted by KSigkid

Eh, I would say Connecticut would be the capital this year

Of course, that all could change on Saturday...

I'm pretty sure I already told you - no.

[Kevin]

This is about 3-4 months old I think.

[PeppyGPhiB]

This guy's been saying this stuff for years, but I believe this article is about remarks he made at a very recent lecture. He's a propogandist. But we shouldn't laugh too much, because this is the guy Russia wants its citizens to listen to. I'm disturbed at the direction Russia is moving in.

[PhiGam]

Its propaganda. Even if we "fell apart", our military would flatten Russia and China in a matter of months.

[DaemonSeid]

Originally Posted by PhiGam

Its propaganda. Even if we "fell apart", our military would flatten Russia and China in a matter of months.

You think so?


RUSSIA AND CHINA vs the US??


Russia AND China vs the US is a fight we can't afford to be in right now...I think there would be too many other smaller countries eager to join in...against us.

[PhiGam]

Originally Posted by DaemonSeid

You think so?


RUSSIA AND CHINA vs the US??


Russia AND China vs the US is a fight we can't afford to be in right now...I think there would be too many other smaller countries eager to join in...against us.

We would absolutely destroy them, nobody's military except Israel's can compare to ours in combat experience and technology (we invented the F-22 over 20 years ago). When you factor in the sheer size of our military, it would be a very lopsided victory.

[AKA_Monet]

Originally Posted by PhiGam

We would absolutely destroy them, nobody's military except Israel's can compare to ours in combat experience and technology (we invented the F-22 over 20 years ago). When you factor in the sheer size of our military, it would be a very lopsided victory.

While I agree with you on our experience and technology, we can also do it much cheaper with subversive weapons than conventional or nuclear weapons... While it blurs the human rights and moral lines, which I am unsure President Obama wants to do, we can used these subversive tactics to cripple this kind of threat. Why would we really do that, though? If anything, how'd we make money off of a tactical response to Russia or China? That would be silly, overall.

Hayle playing American Idol and The Bachelor over and over again is torture enough, IMO... And none of these countries have no where NEAR the kind of satellites we have, that is just a discussion with Ted Turner and a few others...

Take a few of their satellites of the 3-4 channels they do have, what are they really watching... Some of these leaders LOVE SATC, you know...

[DaemonSeid]

Originally Posted by PhiGam

We would absolutely destroy them, nobody's military except Israel's can compare to ours in combat experience and technology (we invented the F-22 over 20 years ago). When you factor in the sheer size of our military, it would be a very lopsided victory.

You really think that even tho we are already stretched pretty thin where we are now, that a fight between China and Russia vs the US is something we could easily win?

When China is using Israeli technology (some of which was given to Israel from us and as of at least 10 years ago Israel was selling to China) and Russia probably having the determination to win, it's not a fight we can easily think we would win just by size alone.

No matter how much we hear about arms embargoes or pacts to keep the Chinese static, they have the wherewithal to duplicate whatever is needed to be a contender in a fight and anytime these folks can duplicate a factory down to the nuts and bolts and produce anything should make you seriously consider if we can afford to go to war with BOTH of them simultaneously.

You also need to consider that the 2 countries have had their top minds get together in order to strategically plan such an operation should it occur. Not to mention think of it if...IIIIFFF Iran or Korea decided to get in on their side...then what?

Lastly what kind of support from the US do you think we would put behind going to war...again?


That is too fine of a tightrope to simply say our sheer size would win.

And what kind of excuse would the Obama administration have to come up with to have this war so soon after Iraq?

WMDs? Food Poisoning? Democracy in China? There is no way the President can lie his way thru this one and get enough US support to fight another front so soon after shutting down another.


Heck the global economy probably couldn't afford another war right now.

Russia learned that lesson fighting in Afghanistan...determination and will is what wins.

ETA: Funny that you mentioned the F 22, because I just remembered soemthing I heard in the news yesterday about the production of the plances and its effects on the economy:


Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't

[cheerfulgreek]

Originally Posted by PhiGam

We would absolutely destroy them, nobody's military except Israel's can compare to ours in combat experience and technology (we invented the F-22 over 20 years ago). When you factor in the sheer size of our military, it would be a very lopsided victory.

PhiGam, I agree with you partially. Though the F-22 is an outstanding fighter plane, Russia still has effectively perfected thrust vectoring technology. They're also able to build their aircraft at a cheaper cost. The Mig 29 Fulcrum cost a lot less to maintain than our F-18Es, but at the same time is just as effective in air to air combat. You also have to take in account that Russia also has very effective long range bomber technology as well. If we did win, that would probably be because China and Russia would have a hard time feeding their soldiers. The same problem that the Germans had during WWII. Germany had far superior technology than the Allies but yet they still lost the war. Where do you think the B2 bomber's shape came from?

[SWTXBelle]

I'm ready for Texas to secede. We've been independent before - what the heck.