Is there a chapter advisor or someone like that from whom you could get the real scoop on probation and whatever else? If the advisor is trying to save the chapter, he's obviously biased himself, but maybe he could at least get you some facts.
Also, do you have an idea of how the situation is perceived on your campus? In most cases, spending an entire semester with a fraternity and then dropping could look bad when you rush elsewhere. However, if the chapter is really on its last legs, I think other chapters may be more understanding of your reasons for leaving.
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