Quote:
Originally Posted by MysticCat
Given the governor's and attorney general's decisions not to defend it, the court allowed the current defendants -- some groups that supported Prop 8 -- to intervene so that there would be someone to defend the suit. That means those groups are now defendants. Unless plaintiffs opposed that at the trial court and make that an issue on appeal, no more hoops regarding the parties.
It will definitely be appealed -- that was clear along, regardless of who won and who lost.
I haven't had a chance to read the (130+ page) opinion yet; I've just followed some news sources. From those, I take it that the court focused heavily on how defendants' evidence had not established a rational basis for Prop 8. A law that discriminates between people who are not part of a protected class (e.g., racial or ethnic minorities) does not violate the equal protection clause if it has a rational basis. This could good and bad for the opponents of Prop 8 and similar measures.
On the "good" side, it means that the appeals court may show more deference to the trial court. Questions of law are considered anew by an appeals court, but for questions of fact/evidence, deference is usually given to the trial court. Findings of fact are generally harder to overturn on appeal than conclusions of law.
On the "bad" side, it doesn't mean that the trial court found that same-sex marriage bans are per se unconstitutional. Rather, he found that these defendants had not shown a rational basis for this ban.
Though the Ninth Circuit is traditionally more liberal/progressive/choose your term, I wouldn't automatically assume that it will affirm the trial court's decision. We'll have to wait and see.
If they reverse the trial judge, the case may well stop there. The Supreme Court may not see a need to step in. On the other hand if they affirm it, I think it's headed to the Supreme Court. Unless the make-up of the Court changes between now and then by someone other than a more liberal justice or Justice Kennedy leaving, I think the odds in SCOTUS definitely favor the proponants of Prop 8.
FWIW.
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What I've seen suggested is that it would be 5-4 with Kennedy likely voting against Prop 8 as he tends to be pro-gay rights, despite enjoying his swing vote and being generally conservative. Assuming they take the case.
And as I understand it the Judge overturned it both for violating Due Process and the Equal Protection Clauses and though I think he found that gays held special status, he couched the opinion in such a way as to indicate that even if they did not, it was still a violation. He pretty well eviscerated the defense too. I was following a trial tracker and it was just... bad. Olson and Boies are incredibly good at what they do though too.
But I've been following prop8trialtracker.com (Pro-plaintiff site)