Quote:
Originally Posted by UGAalum94
I don't know. Again, I think there are too many new variables to know for sure. If we accept what you've said about an unprecedented amount of race related level-pulling effect, isn't it going to be particularly hard to measure in advance?
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YES, which is why I noted it was "unprecedented" and "unmeasurable."
However, other effects that you noted are completely wrapped within other elections, and thus make for a worthy comparison study.
Remember - supposedly unmeasurable race/gender effects were rampant throughout the Democratic primaries, and Silver's model did a fantastic job mapping those (better than every mainstream media source). So . . . yeah. Feel free to wonder about the numbers, but there's a good chance your Spidey-Sense is tingling for reasons other than a lack of numerical or scientific accuracy of the assay.