Out Break!

cheerfulgreek · #1 04-21-2008, 03:57 PM

This past weekend I saw the movie "Out Break" for the first time. I know it's an old movie, but I don't watch a lot of movies. I just rented a few this weekend. I needed a break!

Well anyway, I thought it was a great movie and I wondered "what if"? I didn't agree with the whole movie though. I think it would be far worse if something like that were to really happen. The crazy thing about this kind of thing is for years we've been warned that some kind of pandemic is coming. There's a lot of terrorist threats of spreading viruses and diseases all over the world, and it's kind of scary. It could be the flu, or it could be something else, but whatever happens lots of people will die. As bad as this will be, on an ever more crowded planet, you can't help wondering whether the survivors might be better off in some ways. Of course we don't think this could happen to us though. Right?

I think people believe that society may have already achieved a scale, complexity and level of innovation that make it immune from collapse.

After watching "Out Break" I think a virus like that one would only be the start of our problems. So far I haven't heard of any scientific study that has looked at whether a pandemic with a high morality could cause social collapse, I mean at least none that has been made public. Does anyone know about the plague that hit Europe in the 14th Century? It had a huge impact, but it didn't collapse. It came close but it didn't. Things are different now, so I think it would have a more devastating effect.

Wouldn't it be easier to rebuild modern society into something more sustainable, if there were fewer of us? Would life ever return to something resembling normal after a devastating pandemic? Would you be ready for an Out Break if it ever were to happen? What about the outcome? Would it be something we could come out of and return to normal?

DaemonSeid · #2 04-21-2008, 04:00 PM

Cheerful...that's a conspiracy in the making...selective killing and breeding...that's borderline eugenics...speaking of...if you get some time...check out Gattaca.

DSTCHAOS · #3 04-21-2008, 04:04 PM

You're good for starting a discussion with a long arse post.

So here goes.

A pandemic wouldn't have a devastating effect because there are behind the scenes measures to prevent certain things from getting too out of hand. There are deserts with subsocieties waiting to be populated, and underground nations in preparation, so that we can have some refuge and recreate society. At least that's what the movies tell us so it might be true, right?

Now the only end-all and be-all is the Apocalypse. Then humans would have no say in the outcome becomes Jesus has returned to take us believers Home.

Okay.

DSTCHAOS · #4 04-21-2008, 04:05 PM

Daemonseid and I share the same crack pipe. An empty crack pipe, of course.

cheerfulgreek · #5 04-21-2008, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaemonSeid

Cheerful...that's a conspiracy in the making...selective killing and breeding...that's borderline eugenics...speaking of...if you get some time...check out Gattaca.

It could be. I don't think it matters what it is. I think when it happens it will backfire if it's a conspiracy. If it's natural, I don't think we're prepared for it, and I think it will cause a serious domino effect on society.

PM_Mama00 · #6 04-21-2008, 04:18 PM

Don't have much to say about it.

Just really love that movie!

DSTCHAOS · #7 04-21-2008, 04:19 PM

It's a great movie.

macallan25 · #8 04-21-2008, 04:19 PM

I took an anthroplogy class a couple years ago called Plagues and People. Dealt with pandemics, epidemics...........all of that stuff. Pretty fascinating.

cheerfulgreek · #9 04-21-2008, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DSTCHAOS

You're good for starting a discussion with a long arse post.

So here goes.

A pandemic wouldn't have a devastating effect because there are behind the scenes measures to prevent certain things from getting too out of hand. There are deserts with subsocieties waiting to be populated, and underground nations in preparation, so that we can have some refuge and recreate society. At least that's what the movies tell us so it might be true, right?

Now the only end-all and be-all is the Apocalypse. Then humans would have no say in the outcome becomes Jesus has returned to take us believers Home.

Okay.

Well, I couldn't explain it without it being so long.

Well, look at the Roman empire that was hit by a plague with a similar death rate as the 14th century plague. I know it happened around 170 AD which is a different time period from today, but still the effects of it caused a downward spiral towards collapse. So why the difference? In the 14th century, Europe was a feudal hierarchy in which more than 80% of the population were farmers. Each death removed a food producer, but also a consumer, so there was little net effect. In a hierarchy, no one is so vital that they can't be easily replaced. The Roman Empire was also a hierarchy, but with a difference. It had a huge urban population, not equalled in Europe until modern times which depended on small farmers for grain, taxes and soldiers. Population decline effected agriculture, which effected the empire's ability to pay for the military, which made the empire less able to keep invaders out. The invaders further weakened the farmers and agriculture, and a high morality pandemic could trigger a similar result now. Think about it. Fewer consumers, and loss of personnel in key industries would really hurt us.

Pass the crack pipe pleeeze. lol

cheerfulgreek · #10 04-21-2008, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by macallan25

I took an anthroplogy class a couple years ago called Plagues and People. Dealt with pandemics, epidemics...........all of that stuff. Pretty fascinating.

I agree.

DaemonSeid · #11 04-21-2008, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DSTCHAOS

Daemonseid and I share the same crack pipe. An empty crack pipe, of course.

I don't do crack. crack is for poor people.

DSTCHAOS · #12 04-21-2008, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaemonSeid

I don't do crack. crack is for poor people.

No drug tiers today please.

It's empty because it was never not empty. Not because you smoked it all.

DaemonSeid · #13 04-21-2008, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DSTCHAOS

No drug tiers today please.

It's empty because it was never not empty. Not because you smoked it all.

Where did you get it from anyways?

Is it sanitary????????

AKA_Monet · #14 04-21-2008, 08:36 PM

Cheerful--

You ought to take a public health class after you take your first level microbiology and virology classes... These classes explain why the movie was dead wrong on viral transmission. But it is on point about what US AMRID will do if such a situation existed--i.e. nuking the place...

You should watch Legend with Will Smith if you liked Outbreak.

Also, the reason why viruses spread so far is because of filth and no controls on public health. It is conceivable that it could happen today with a different kind of virus unseen, because it did happen with Bird Flu (H5N1 strain). But Dr. Fauci literally stated a catastrophe of the situation to the Bush Admin to put more money in Global Public Health. Also there are now 3 strains of HIV in humans...

Some people are just plain nasty and funky... I am not talking about poor countries--I am talking about folks who live in the US.

Besides, if someone showed up with major quarantined viral infection and the physicians were astute enough (

), the "Andromeda Strain" protocol would be in effect... Now, that is a book and movie you should try to see.

It is thought the reason why Egyptian, Roman and European pestilences were devastating was due to water source contamination including chemicals and microbial-fecal contaminations; poor water treatment options and poor sanitation practices--cleaning out the leavened grain areas, etc.

Today if that same kind of thing were to happen in the US... Well, it already does and public health departments are sorely understaffed.

PeppyGPhiB · #15 04-21-2008, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AKA_Monet

It is thought the reason why Egyptian, Roman and European pestilences were devastating was due to water source contamination including chemicals and microbial-fecal contaminations; poor water treatment options and poor sanitation practices--cleaning out the leavened grain areas, etc.

Today if that same kind of thing were to happen in the US... Well, it already does and public health departments are sorely understaffed.

Public baths baaaaaaaaaad.