Amy Coney Barrett

[TriDeltaSallie]

Originally Posted by What?

Please don’t interpret my comment as any criticism of your analysis, I just worry that this rosy outlook for Trump will further galvanize the fraudsters as their brethren are facing no consequences.

I didn't view it as criticism at all. I'm simply laying things out as I see them. There is no way I can account for fraud. I can only deal with facts.

Facts that are harder to track include things like these.

How will the movement of people out of urban areas due to the pandemic, violence, job loss, and work-from-home impact voting in various areas across the country? Will these swing areas in a different direction enough to impact electoral votes?

There are 5 million new gun owners. It's probably safe to say a significant portion of them will vote for the candidate who supports the 2nd Amendment. But where do they live (blue versus red areas) and how will that impact outcomes with electoral votes?

Where do the Walk Away, Blexit, and moderate Democrats who have switched to supporting Trump live? Do they live in heavily red areas? Heavily blue areas? Will their switching impact electoral votes?

These are questions I haven't seen answered anywhere.

[trymeplease]

Trideltasallie, there is no systematic explanation for Biden winning, it is simply, Orange Man Bad

[Cheerio]

Originally Posted by What?

Carnation, my mother-in-law has received multiple pieces of election mail for my dead (2018) father-in-law, aka her ex-husband, who had not lived at her current address since the early 2000s. This is not an anomaly as I have heard similar stories from multiple friends and family members.

Receiving election mailings from candidates who have made the error of purchasing very old mailing lists happens at our home, too. Our county has, however, always been quickly up-to-date when it comes to removing deceased family members from county voting rolls. I have yet to receive one updated voter registration card or vote-by-mail reminder for the three people in our home, all legally registered voters prior to passing, who have died in the past two years.

[bevinpiphi]

Originally Posted by TriDeltaSallie

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why.

Within my own personal circle, of those who have stated they voted Trump in 2016, he’s losing about half of those votes, but I also recognize that my circle is not an actual cross section for voters. My dad was a “bought a red hat as soon as he could” Trump supporter for 2016 who is voting for Biden this election cycle.

[What?]

Originally Posted by Cheerio

Receiving election mailings from candidates who have made the error of purchasing very old mailing lists happens at our home, too. Our county has, however, always been quickly up-to-date when it comes to removing deceased family members from county voting rolls. I have yet to receive one updated voter registration card or vote-by-mail reminder for the three people in our home, all legally registered voters prior to passing, who have died in the past two years.

My previous attempt at a reply timed out, so here are the cliff notes so I can go to bed. My dead FIL does not just receive random political mailers. He, like at least 6 other individuals with whom I share/d close personal ties who have either moved or passed away well over 2 years ago, have received polling place cards and detailed instructions for voting by mail from our state DOE.

[33girl]

Sallie -

I read your blog post and would love to know which groups you think are farthest down the rabbit hole.

[ASTalumna06]

Originally Posted by 33girl

Sallie -

I read your blog post and would love to know which groups you think are farthest down the rabbit hole.

I also read it. And to answer your question: yours and mine.

[TriDeltaSallie]

Originally Posted by 33girl

Sallie -

I read your blog post and would love to know which groups you think are farthest down the rabbit hole.

I critiqued my own group and my own experience. I discussed Kappa Delta's situation because it happened on a public Facebook page and involved a national news story.

That's as much as I'm willing to discuss publicly. There is no additional value going beyond what I've already written.

[Longhorn Mom]

I haven’t been on this site in years but so glad I stopped in to see this ACB convo going on!

I’m thrilled to see her nomination. Considering SCOTUS Blackmun referred to abortion rights as “emancipation” for women, I glad that a woman who didn’t need to kill her own in order to be professionally successful is being highlighted. It’s a wonderful refute to the feminist notions that a properly functioning female body is a liability and that motherhood is subjugation.

I hope she is a Constitutional originalist. Afterall, the intent of our founding fathers matters (otherwise, what’s the point of an ever shifting document?). Regardless of where one stands on abortion, there is no right to kill unborn humans in it. The right to privacy speaks to unreasonable searches as what occurred during the Stamp Act. Personal concern played a part in Blackmun’s decision, as his then knocked-up college daughter Sally wished she’d had abortion as an option. Roe v Wade was so wrongly decided that precedent or not, it will not stand. Trump will need to seat another 1 or 2 supremes in order to get the deed done. And for women unhappy about illegal/unsafe abortion, just don’t have one.

ACBs dislike of LGBT rights is very easy to support from both a religious and non-religious/common good standpoint. We don’t need to endorse LGBT in order to affirm their status as children of God and fellow human beings worthy of dignity, value and respect.

Finally, for “Catholics” who don’t accept full church teaching, that’s just Martin Luther Catholicism, aka, protestantism. Intellectual honesty demands a different religious label.

KD should be proud to call such an accomplished woman one of their own.

[Benzgirl]

Originally Posted by bevinpiphi

Within my own personal circle, of those who have stated they voted Trump in 2016, he’s losing about half of those votes, but I also recognize that my circle is not an actual cross section for voters. My dad was a “bought a red hat as soon as he could” Trump supporter for 2016 who is voting for Biden this election cycle.

My father is a life-long Republican but saw through Trump's lies in 2016 and voted for HRC. He woke me up this morning to tell me Trump tested positive for COVID and my father hates the telephone so it must have been very important to him. I guess he falls into that 10% of Republicans that Sallie quoted as not supporting Trump, but he is highly educated and still running his consulting business at age 88.

Here is a breakdown of the Republicans in my family.

The Ohio and Georgia Republicans are all voting for Biden except one question mark. He won't discuss how he is voting but his wife put a Biden sign in their front yard and he hasn't removed it.
The Texas/Colorado Republican family members are...well...Texas Republicans and made their money from oil. I don't need to ask how they plan to vote but one has said she is sitting out this election because she doesn't like either candidate.
The Florida Republicans are voting for Biden because they are in the healthcare field (one is an MD and the other a CNP) and see first-hand how Trump mishandled COVID.

Again, not a good cross-section since it's just my family and about one-half of them are Democrats who vote country over party. Only my personal situation but I'm sure at least one new member will become agressives over this post.

[What?]

Originally Posted by Benzgirl

My father is a life-long Republican but saw through Trump's lies in 2016 and voted for HRC. He woke me up this morning to tell me Trump tested positive for COVID and my father hates the telephone so it must have been very important to him. I guess he falls into that 10% of Republicans that Sallie quoted as not supporting Trump, but he is highly educated and still running his consulting business at age 88.

Here is a breakdown of the Republicans in my family.

The Ohio and Georgia Republicans are all voting for Biden except one question mark. He won't discuss how he is voting but his wife put a Biden sign in their front yard and he hasn't removed it.
The Texas/Colorado Republican family members are...well...Texas Republicans and made their money from oil. I don't need to ask how they plan to vote but one has said she is sitting out this election because she doesn't like either candidate.
The Florida Republicans are voting for Biden because they are in the healthcare field (one is an MD and the other a CNP) and see first-hand how Trump mishandled COVID.

Again, not a good cross-section since it's just my family and about one-half of them are Democrats who vote country over party. Only my personal situation but I'm sure at least one new member will become agressives over this post.

I do not know if I am one of the new members to whom the last sentence was directed, but I will take the bait to say that I am sure that everyone has policies that are more important to them than others and I encourage them to vote in their self interest. I have a first cousin-in-law who may be getting a divorce because she cannot get over the fact that her wife is voting for Trump. Her PhD wife is doing so because she has weighed the pros and cons and realizes that her LGBTQ rights are not in real danger but the fears of street crime and socialism (the thing that resulted in the death of her great grandparents) are the key issues for her.

On the other hand, I know several Republicans in my super blue state who are just simply not voting because the options are so bad. I was almost among their ranks 4 years ago. I find both of our options terrible, it is just a matter of choosing the one that YOU consider less terrible.

[Benzgirl]

Originally Posted by What?

I do not know if I am one of the new members to whom the last sentence was directed, but I will take the bait to say that I am sure that everyone has policies that are more important to them than others and I encourage them to vote in their self interest. I have a first cousin-in-law who may be getting a divorce because she cannot get over the fact that her wife is voting for Trump. Her PhD wife is doing so because she has weighed the pros and cons and realizes that her LGBTQ rights are not in real danger but the fears of street crime and socialism (the thing that resulted in the death of her great grandparents) are the key issues for her.

On the other hand, I know several Republicans in my super blue state who are just simply not voting because the options are so bad. I was almost among their ranks 4 years ago. I find both of our options terrible, it is just a matter of choosing the one that YOU consider less terrible.

No but while your "high fives" were annoying, the posts right out of Russian propaganda from another were bat shit crazy.
BTW...socialism in the United States is a scare tactic I would expect anyone with a college degree to see through.

[TriDeltaSallie]

I check out Rod Dreher's blog a few times a month to gauge what is going on in Never Trumper or Almost Never Trumper land. His commenters tend to be all over the place.

He often shares comments and emails on his posts. I thought these were instructive.

Per your post, I had the exact same thought about Trump voters and pollsters after hanging out the other day with several couples we get together with every few weeks. It was at our house and it was clear people felt “safe” — and somewhat to my chagrin that meant the conversation immediately turned political. Every one of them is a Trump voter, but it was crystal clear none of them would talk to a pollster in a million years. All expressed a deep distrust that ANYONE outside a very tight knit circle of trust could be relied upon not to use information about their politics to harm them. They basically took it for granted that if they gave politically incorrect answers to a pollster their name was going on a list that would be used by the left to take punitive action against them in the future.

These are all pretty successful, solid folks, who I know from experience would give you the shirt off their back – the kind of people who would typically be defenders and sustainers of the institutions that have helped give them a pretty good life. But their level of social trust is now basically zero. It’s disturbing, but I get it.

and

Apropos of what you say about formerly Trump-hesitant people losing their hesitation, I relay to you the following personal anecdote.

Last night I was watching the Spectator’s recent YouTube video analyzing the state of the election (recommended, by the way). My wife was doing paperwork in the same room and half paying attention. Afterward, she said to me, “Are you going to vote for Trump? I think we have to.” And she spent the next few minutes trying to convince me to vote for him.

Here’s the thing about that. I didn’t vote for Trump (or Clinton) in ‘16. I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Like you, I’m a social and religious conservative who generally thinks that Trump’s manifest character flaws and general nuttiness disqualify him for high office. I’m increasingly inclined to vote for him this year, but I remain undecided. But my wife… she went to [elite New England boarding school] and then to [super-liberal Northern college], where she majored in fine arts. She has a graduate degree in [a psychology-related field], and went to Burning Man multiple times and loved it. She’s not a very political person, but if I had to pin her down, I would call her a Rockefeller Republican: leave the family trust alone, no capital gains tax, and social libertarianism. Sort of the opposite of me, now that I think about it. She’s also a survivor of sexual violence, which inclines her to the #BelieveWomen position. But the point is: the events of this summer have shifted her into the position of thinking it is urgently important to vote for Trump, and she spent some minutes last night trying to convince me of this urgency.

I don’t need much convincing. But it was a personal mundus inversus moment for me, illustrating what you talk about in your post – how the Left is driving erstwhile normies, and even some elite New Englander types (QED) into Trump’s camp. I’m so used to my wife being the politically moderating voice in our marriage, pulling me from my quasi-integralist orbit back towards the center. But this summer has really shaken things up. Biden may still win, but that won’t prove that our media institutions have harmonized themselves with reality, or understood the electorate, to a greater extent than they did in ‘16.

Taken from this post: Soft Totalitarianism & Anti-Biden Ad

Stories don't prove anything, but they can add to formulating an overall understanding of what is happening.

[Benzgirl]

Still "Shootem' Up Sallie".

[TriDeltaSallie]

Originally Posted by What?

I have a first cousin-in-law who may be getting a divorce because she cannot get over the fact that her wife is voting for Trump. Her PhD wife is doing so because she has weighed the pros and cons and realizes that her LGBTQ rights are not in real danger but the fears of street crime and socialism (the thing that resulted in the death of her great grandparents) are the key issues for her.

That is a fascinating story.

There are a lot of relationships under a lot of strain in this country.