Hurricane Ivan

[lifesaver]

The old meterologist in lifesaver says Ivan is gonna hit Louisania.

Ivan shoullda turned by now.

I'm scared for my famly, less than an hour north of Freeport, in Texas.

If it's not now. It will be soon. From the NWS site:

"Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether or not it is due to sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 that are periods in the climatological record of "hurricane-rich" and "hurricane poor" sets of years. A hurricane-rich set of year is represented by an average of 8 storms making landfall over an average of 10 years, plus or minus a couple of either. A hurricane-poor set of years is represented by an average of 2 storms making landfall over an average of 14 years, plus or minus a couple of either.

Using this pattern, he correctly predicted the hurricane-rich period he was entering in 1956 (it lasted from 1954-1971). Using this pattern, it is noted that the Texas coast has been in a hurricane-poor period since 1990. This would mean that at least one more landfalling hurricanes should be expected by around 2004. Thereafter, a hurricane-rich period would begin, lasting until approximately 2015, in which nearly eight hurricanes would make landfall. Remember, it only takes one hurricane making landfall in your location to create grief for you and your loved ones.

[smiley21]

Originally posted by AlphaSigOU
156 mph sustained winds or better for Category 5, wind gusts can easily exceed 180 mph or greater; Hurricane Camille in 1969 was reportedly recorded to have sustained winds of over 190 mph before making landfall on the Mississippi Gulf coast.

yesterday, Ivan had wind gusts at 210 mph now it looks to be moving more westerly like toward the panhandle.

[cashmoney]

Originally posted by AlphaSigOU
BTW, Ivan... if you can do me a favor and sweep Fidel and his commies out to sea, I'd appreciate it! VIVA CUBA LIBRE!

Yea, no kidding. When the commies are out of the picture you can bet your ass I'll be going to Cuba for vacations.

[Peaches-n-Cream]

At mass we prayed for all the people in Florida, Cuba, Grenada, Jamaica, etc. who have been and will be touched by the hurricanes. I hope that everyone is safe.

[smiley21]

ivan is now headed for New Orleans, LA and Alabama, and the west Florida panhandle

[ZTAngel]

Here's a funny cartoon from "The Alligator", a UF newspaper.
Looks like Central Florida has been spared from Ivan but Jeanne might make a visit to Florida.

[kk_bama]

It looks like Ivan is headed straight for Mobile, Ala. at this point. Auburn has cancelled classes for Wednesday-Friday.

Bama, on the other hand, is "monitoring" the storm. I think we'll have classes cancelled on Thursday and Friday.

Some of my sisters' families from the Mobile area are evacuating up to Tuscaloosa. An alum from last year arrived today from Panama City.

[GPhiLlama]

Heh, I'm going to Hattiesburg.

If it moves eastwards to NOLA, there will be no more NOLA.

[Munchkin03]

Eeek...I can't get through to the Family Munch, who seems to be just to the east of the brunt of the storm.

They'll be fine, I just hope they get out before the traffic gets too bad.

[starang21]

Originally posted by ZTAngel
Here's a funny cartoon from "The Alligator", a UF newspaper.
Looks like Central Florida has been spared from Ivan but Jeanne might make a visit to Florida.

don't say that.

[smiley21]

i know that we are all afraid this might happen

New Orleans in Danger

[lifesaver]

We have family in New Orleans who left at 10 am this morning and it took them 15 hours to go from New Orleans to Houston. Normally, a 6 hour drive. My good friend in the Garden District left last night and headded up to Little Rock to be with her family.

[Peaches-n-Cream]

I hope that everyone in Ivan's path is safe and sound.

[AlphaSigOU]

WTNT34 KNHC 152041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION
WERE RECENTLY CLOCKED AT 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH. A BUOY
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND REPORTED 50 FT SEAS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N... 88.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Stay safe any of you GCers out in the Gulf Coast!

[swissmiss04]

The wind is slightly picking up here (we're about 150-200 miles inland here in Tuscaloosa) but thus far nothing yet. We're expecting to see the first of Ivan tomorrow morning, with the worst hitting us early afternoon. I went to Target earlier today and the place was a huge cluster f....it was busy. There was absolutely not a single case or bottle of water left. I don't know where on earth I'll find any now. I'm sure most of the stores around here have been pillaged. Most of the gas stations had long lines as well. Please pray for all of the people on the immediate Gulf Coast, especially New Orleans right now (they're getting it as we speak, I think).