Crashing!
I thought you ladies would be interested to read this:
Topinka tells GOP: I'll run for governor
By Rick Pearson
Tribune political reporter
Published November 7, 2005
State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka has told leading Republicans that she intends to run for governor, dramatically recasting the GOP's prospects for capturing an office it had held for a quarter of a century, sources familiar with the decision said Sunday.
Topinka's move ends weeks of political indecision and personal introspection as she weighed whether to seek a fourth term as treasurer, a post she would be the odds-on favorite to win, or risk a more brutal fight for the state's top job.
A decision to run in the March 21 Republican primary also could lead to a reshaping of the current GOP field for governor, in which five men have announced or are considering a run. Four of them are social conservatives; Topinka is a social moderate.
With the deadline for filing candidacy petitions for next year's ballot only weeks away, public opinion polls have shown significant uncertainty among Republican voters for what has been a largely undistinguished field--absent the entry of Topinka, the lone statewide Republican officeholder, into the race.
Still, a Topinka bid also could starkly highlight the ideological schisms that have plagued the state GOP after the scandal-scarred tenure of the state's last Republican governor, George Ryan, and the fractious choice that led to conservative Alan Keyes' trouncing in the 2004 U.S. Senate contest.
Republican sources who asked not to be identified said Topinka, 61, began notifying GOP leaders over the weekend that she intended to run--only a few weeks after she had indicated that she was unlikely to seek the governor's office because of money concerns.
Blagojevich a tough fighter
Despite signs of political vulnerability, first-term Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich has been a voracious fundraiser and he enters the early fall campaign season with at least $14 million in the bank. Topinka reported one-tenth of that amount in her summer campaign disclosure report.
But the sources said Topinka has received assurances from national GOP leaders that if she wins the primary, Illinois will be considered "in play" despite its recent overtly Democratic leanings. Money from national Republican donors would follow, they said, to challenge a Blagojevich war chest likely to exceed $20 million for the general election.
Ultimately, though, Topinka's decision came down to her ability to win, the Republican sources said. One said that "pieces were still being put in place" and that absent any unforeseen circumstances, she would formally launch her campaign for governor with a rally to occur within the next couple of weeks.
"She is absolutely convinced that if she doesn't run, Blagojevich gets re-elected and she's willing to take whatever they throw at her because she's got a good shot to beat him," said one Republican official.
Topinka was the unabashed choice of former Gov. Jim Edgar to run for the nomination. After Edgar opted not to seek his old job on Sept. 29, he touted Topinka as best suited to run. At that time, Topinka said she would make "a decision very shortly," but she spent weeks debating whether to seek the state's top office.
One factor in Topinka's decision has been what public opinion polls show is Blagojevich's flagging popularity among voters who have questioned whether he has been meeting his pledge to reform Springfield. His political vulnerability has only been exacerbated by recent reports of federal subpoenas delivered to his office and three state agencies amid a grand jury investigation into allegations of state hiring irregularities.
A Tribune/WGN-TV poll conducted a month ago showed Topinka outpacing the rest of the potential GOP field among primary voters. Absent Topinka in the race, however, the poll found the percentage of undecided primary voters increased to more than one-third.
The poll, with a 5 percentage point margin of error, showed Topinka with 31 percent of the GOP primary vote, compared to 15 percent for businessman Jim Oberweis and 7 percent apiece for state Sens. Bill Brady of Bloomington and Steve Rauschenberger of Elgin. DuPage County State's Attorney Joseph Birkett had 5 percent and businessman Ron Gidwitz had 4 percent, while 27 percent were undecided and 3 percent preferred another candidate.
Of the field, Oberweis, Rauschenberger, Brady and Birkett are social conservatives, while Gidwitz is a moderate. Of the five men, Birkett has not formally announced for governor and there are expectations that a Topinka decision could recast the primary ballot as contenders drop out of the contest or seek different statewide offices.
"If she gets in this, there's the potential for some rearranging and the building of a ticket," said state Rep. Tom Cross of Oswego, the Republican leader of the Illinois House and a Topinka ally. "I don't know how everybody's going to react, but there's certainly the potential for shaping a ticket."
Other posts may affect choices
As of now, Republicans have not announced candidates for attorney general, comptroller or, amid expectations that Topinka would seek re-election, the office of treasurer. Some Republicans have urged Brady to consider a bid for treasurer in light of Topinka's move to give up her office.
Some Republican leaders, including GOP State Chairman Andy McKenna, have urged that the party look to see if a consensus choice for governor could be made to avoid a costly and contentious primary fight.
There are expectations, however, that Oberweis is the most likely to stay in the race.
Topinka's moderation on social issues, such as her support for abortion rights and opposition to discrimination based on sexual orientation, has long drawn the ire of the party's right wing, particularly during her tenure as a former chairman of the state GOP.
A large question is how GOP conservatives treat a Topinka candidacy.
"I think grudgingly they may go along," said one GOP leader. "They badly, badly want to beat Blagojevich."
If elected, she would be the first female governor in Illinois history.
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