RFM Question

[ksu4me]

Originally Posted by DeltaBetaBaby

One of the topics I teach to college students is forecasting, and I always tell them that the first rule of forecasting is that forecasts are always wrong. RFM specialists are making their best guesses about return rates based on past years' data. If they were 100% correct all of the time, they wouldn't be RFM specialists, they'd be day traders.

Love it. I'll bet your students love you.

Originally Posted by FSUZeta

Isn't it the case that when quota additions come into play, they, QAs, would go first to chapters with lower memberships?

Originally Posted by 33girl

I think from what people have said on here, that is recommended, but not required.

I really don't understand quota additions (adding things to my list. . . ) other than to know that it's how many over quota that you take. All of us lose members between semesters to internships, transfers, deactivation etc, but several chapters were under chapter total last spring, including chapter B. http://www.k-state.edu/greek/resourc...0-%20Final.pdf It really doesn't make sense that they not only didn't get QAs, but were under quota as well. ???

[Someone tell me if I should delete that link. Anyone can google it, but still. . . ]

[DeltaBetaBaby]

Originally Posted by 33girl

I think from what people have said on here, that is recommended, but not required.

Yes. The GA is supposed to place women to the best of her ability balancing chapter parity and PNM preference. We've talked through a lot of examples in various threads, but often the end result is that the chapters who have had the weakest recruitment or retention numbers end up with the biggest NM classes.

It's a shame that occasionally a traditionally strong recruiting chapter misses quota (the same thing happened at my alma mater last year), but I come from the school of thought that COB can be a way to grab some outstanding women who otherwise wouldn't participate in Greek life.

Again, I am not in the know, but it sounds like A really cut too heavily early on and ended up with way too few girls at pref (like less than 2x where x=quota).

\

[DeltaBetaBaby]

Originally Posted by NUKaydee

It is common on my campus that the strong recruiting chapter have slightly less than 2x quota at their pref parties because the RFM specialist told them they had to release X number of girls. One of the strongest chapters on my campus has had to snap bid or COB up to total a few times because of this.

Okay, so if the prediction is that more than half the women will rank this group as their #1, they absolutely SHOULD have less than 2x quota at their pref parties. The question is why it would happen that the prediction should be off several times in a short time frame.

The problem, of course, is that formulas are not humans, and while they can make good predictions, they sometimes miss the obvious. Let me give an example:

Let's say there are 10 groups on campus, and return rates for the first invitational round at XYZ are 85% in 2009, 90% in 2010, and 95% in 2011. A basic trend projection would obviously predict a 100% return rate in 2012. But you and I, who are human beings with real thoughts, know that no chapter is ever going to achieve a 100% return rate. In fact, it's very possible that the chapter will top out at 95%.

Further, the RFM models are all based on past years' data, i.e. they are strictly time series models, not associative models. They don't know that XYZ's main competition just built a gorgeous new house or there is a rumor going around that XYZ is on social probation, or any number of other things that can cause a chapter to over- or under-perform in a given year.

So, in short, forecasting is very, very difficult, and the outcomes are not perfect, but RFM is miles ahead of its predecessor and has done much to level the playing field.

[Titchou]

RFM specialists do not travel to the campuses. they are assigned a number of campuses, usually 6-10 depending on size, and communicate via phone and email with the GAs as recruitment moves forward. not only does each chapter have an invite list, they have a flex list of women to add if circumstances warrant. One of the issues is that chapters sometimes tend to rely on the formula to get them the needed number of attendees at a party when they need to be targeting those invites. Reducing the numbers the better recruiting chapters can bring back challenges them to do this.

So, in short, forecasting is very, very difficult, and the outcomes are not perfect, but RFM is miles ahead of its predecessor and has done much to level the playing field.

I completely agree. I was just providing another example for the poster who was talking about certain "strong" chapters not making quota.

[DubaiSis]

And another piece that I'm assuming is not considered is who is their primary competition. If ABC gets 95% return rates and DEF gets 95% return rates and they are head to head for preference, and they both are only inviting 2X quota (and quota is estimated low, which has been mentioned here), there is a strong possibility of a quota miss, especially if there is a 3rd chapter involved that has 85% return rates and gets to invite maybe 2 1/2X quota.

That's why I think they should be a little looser with the invitations to preference. HOWEVER, that will increase the chances of a rushee getting her 3rd choice, which we all know can be problematic. So I don't see any magic bullet. I think increasing the number of chapters should help alleviate some of this, but I can't quantify how. It just seems like spreading the wealth would diminish the intensity for 1 or 2 chapters.

[Venusloves11]

I want to see if I got this right... PNM's who make it to prefs, even if for only one group, are guaranteed a bid to that group?

If so, recruitment has changed in the last 8 years.

[KSUViolet06]

^^^If she was only invited to XYZ, attends XYZ, and submits a final card with XYZ ranked in the number 1 slot, she stands a very good chance at getting a bid there.

[Titchou]

Only one campus "guarantees" a bid. But she should get one...unless something unusual happens...like they find out about the drug arrest and 2 out of wedlock babies right after pref and before the bid list goes in.

[LaneSig]

I'm confused.

While I will be the very first to admit that I do not understand all the ins-and-outs of NPC recruitment, bids, etc., can anyone clarify this situation?

Tarleton State University
Quota: 63

Alpha Gamma Delta: 75
Delta Zeta: 80
Phi Mu: 79

This I understand: quota at Tarleton was 63. I also am under the impression (I don't want to say I understand) that quota is usually the number of pnms who are still in the process at preference round, divided by the number of sororities. I also am under the impression that some campuses will do a little bit of "leeway" with that number (example: 100 pnms are still in the process at pref round. 4 sororities on campus. Quota could be 25, but the campus Panhellenic makes the quota 23) to account for qota additions and to help place as many pnms as possible.

Tarleton made quota at 63, but the groups made quota with +12, +17, and +16. Now, I do understand quota additions, but it really appears like Tarleton set their quota extremely low.

Or, am I just a clueless IFC guy? Which, I will willingly admit.

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by LaneSig

I'm confused.

While I will be the very first to admit that I do not understand all the ins-and-outs of NPC recruitment, bids, etc., can anyone clarify this situation?

Tarleton State University
Quota: 63

Alpha Gamma Delta: 75
Delta Zeta: 80
Phi Mu: 79

This I understand: quota at Tarleton was 63. I also am under the impression (I don't want to say I understand) that quota is usually the number of pnms who are still in the process at preference round, divided by the number of sororities. I also am under the impression that some campuses will do a little bit of "leeway" with that number (example: 100 pnms are still in the process at pref round. 4 sororities on campus. Quota could be 25, but the campus Panhellenic makes the quota 23) to account for qota additions and to help place as many pnms as possible.

Tarleton made quota at 63, but the groups made quota with +12, +17, and +16. Now, I do understand quota additions, but it really appears like Tarleton set their quota extremely low.

Or, am I just a clueless IFC guy? Which, I will willingly admit.

Yeah, it's getting more and more weird, but the RFM specialist adjusts the numbers to place the most women. Those QAs may be women who wouldn't have gotten their first choice or may have displaced other women and started a cascade of events if you raised total. Who knows? They massage the numbers until the most women are given bids.

[DeltaBetaBaby]

Originally Posted by LaneSig

I'm confused.

While I will be the very first to admit that I do not understand all the ins-and-outs of NPC recruitment, bids, etc., can anyone clarify this situation?

Tarleton State University
Quota: 63

Alpha Gamma Delta: 75
Delta Zeta: 80
Phi Mu: 79

This I understand: quota at Tarleton was 63. I also am under the impression (I don't want to say I understand) that quota is usually the number of pnms who are still in the process at preference round, divided by the number of sororities. I also am under the impression that some campuses will do a little bit of "leeway" with that number (example: 100 pnms are still in the process at pref round. 4 sororities on campus. Quota could be 25, but the campus Panhellenic makes the quota 23) to account for qota additions and to help place as many pnms as possible.

Tarleton made quota at 63, but the groups made quota with +12, +17, and +16. Now, I do understand quota additions, but it really appears like Tarleton set their quota extremely low.

Or, am I just a clueless IFC guy? Which, I will willingly admit.

A little of both :-) Quota is chosen both to place the most women possible AND to maintain some sort of parity among chapters.

I am gonna go generic here, so nobody thinks I am ranking chapters, and obviously I am being super-extreme in the example:

We are trying to place 234 women. Let's say that ABC is the weakest of the three. Say, 189 women attend prefs at ABC, but nobody lists them first on their bid card. If quota is 63, even if NOBODY lists ABC first, the first two chapters can only hold 123 women, and ABC is left with 63 for themselves. If quota were instead 75, the first two chapters can hold 150, and ABC is left with only 49.

QA's can then be placed as the GA pleases (he or she has a LOT of discretion in placing QA's; we've discussed this elsewhere).

This is a hugely imperfect example, but you get the idea: there needs to be a cap on the strongest recruiting chapters so that some women get their second choices.

[jwright25]

Originally Posted by LaneSig

I'm confused.

While I will be the very first to admit that I do not understand all the ins-and-outs of NPC recruitment, bids, etc., can anyone clarify this situation?

Tarleton State University
Quota: 63

Alpha Gamma Delta: 75
Delta Zeta: 80
Phi Mu: 79

This I understand: quota at Tarleton was 63. I also am under the impression (I don't want to say I understand) that quota is usually the number of pnms who are still in the process at preference round, divided by the number of sororities. I also am under the impression that some campuses will do a little bit of "leeway" with that number (example: 100 pnms are still in the process at pref round. 4 sororities on campus. Quota could be 25, but the campus Panhellenic makes the quota 23) to account for qota additions and to help place as many pnms as possible.

Tarleton made quota at 63, but the groups made quota with +12, +17, and +16. Now, I do understand quota additions, but it really appears like Tarleton set their quota extremely low.

Or, am I just a clueless IFC guy? Which, I will willingly admit.

Is it possible that all the +12, +17, +16 could be free upperclass? And that quota of 63 was just for freshmen?

[Titchou]

Quota is set at whatever number will place the most eligible women(those who have maximized their options) and secondarily have the most chapters at quota. So, it may have been that setting it higher would have resulted in placing fewer women overall - based on how they listed their preferences - and may have had fewer chapters at quota.

We used to compute quota by dividing the number of chapters into the number of PNMs signing bid cards. But that left some chapters not making quota as the preferences do not always fall out evenly and quota additions were capped at 5% of quota for any given chapter. Thus we went to this method which allows the computer to move quota around to see what number is most advantageous for all.

Hope this helps.