A World Recession

[sigmaceli]

I heard one of the first ways to determine a recession is to check with personal service people like manicurists and beauty shops. One of the first cut backs people will make is to stop having their nails done and getting their hair cut in longer intervals between cuts etc. I think we are headed for a recession. If people wouldn't live beyond their means, they wouldn't have all this debt. I was always told to "buy what I can afford, not what I want".

I'm a receptionist in a salon and business is SLOW...It's frightening seeing these women fear for their success this year. One manicurist is barely getting fifteen appointments a week - you can easily do 15 manicures in a day...

[cheerfulgreek]

Originally Posted by KAPital PHINUst

[/b]

Question, is the price really ridiculously low or has the price of homes in the area been historically artificially inflated?

Actually, this may not necessarily be true, but then again it could be, but I find it hard to believe this when millions of households are on the verge of defaulting on their mortgages. 5 bucks there's probably well over 100 subprime lenders that have gone bankrupt.

[Tom Earp]

This is an avalance of major proportation.

Oil is traded in dollars and the dollar is so week, it can hardly stand up!

While it is cheaper for people outside of the US to visit, they are and are spending Billions of dollars.

So, since the dollar is in the tank, it cost more for transportation to deliver food. Food goes up in the grocers, eggs, milk, bread, meat or products similar that go to grocers or resturants, so the price goes up. To keep profits, people are laid off and have no buying power, or can spend money!

What my $20.00 bought in two big paper sacks then now get me two smaller plastic bags to bring home.

I worry where I drive and what I can do in a distance that is much shorter.

I am scared to death as I see my customer count dropping, the daily sales down and the per average costumer purchase falling. Mine is just a small business and I see feom reports that companies like Motorola, K-Mart, Old Navy and others will be closing within the next decade.

[exlurker]

Crisis of confidence in U.S. financial markets? (Bear Stearns, Fed, Morgan and others)

Scary times indeed:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/bu...17econ.html?hp

[cheerfulgreek]

Originally Posted by exlurker

Crisis of confidence in U.S. financial markets? (Bear Stearns, Fed, Morgan and others)

Scary times indeed:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/bu...17econ.html?hp

Great article. I'm not surprised. I remember in 2001 we recovered from a world recession, but I think it's different now, because back then the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all cut interest rates to virtually almost 0. I think it's far different now because the ability of Central Banks to use monetary tools to stimulate their economies and lessen the effect of a global slowdown is far more limited than it was in the past. It just seems like they're not a free as they once were, because now, it's like they're constrained by higher levels of inflation.

[Tom Earp]

I can speak from experience as I own a small business.

I get calls daily from vendors wanting to sell me items and I hear the same thing from them. They are not selling products as no one has money as the business it down.

Ripple effect isn't it?

Houses are going into foreclosure, car dealers are closing, manufactures are laying off or closing. Oh, being bought out by foriegn countrys and production being sent there.

Am I scared, you bet I am! If I close then my employee has no paycheck and cannot pay his rent.

I could pay $20.00 for 2 paper bags for food, now I pay the same amount for two plastic sacks.

Luckily, I only drive @ 4.5 miles a day so only put $20.00 worth of gas in my paid for 4 cylender car that is paid off and 9 years old.

So, are we in trouble in this great county, You bet your butt we are.

You can get your job cut tomarrow and then what are you going to do?

[cheerfulgreek]

Originally Posted by Tom Earp

Am I scared, you bet I am! If I close then my employee has no paycheck and cannot pay his rent.

I could pay $20.00 for 2 paper bags for food, now I pay the same amount for two plastic sacks.

Luckily, I only drive @ 4.5 miles a day so only put $20.00 worth of gas in my paid for 4 cylender car that is paid off and 9 years old.

So, are we in trouble in this great county, You bet your butt we are.

lol lol lol, I wish I knew why, but my God this post is making me laugh so hard.

[cheerfulgreek]

I just want to elaborate on what you said Tom, (I'm still laughing) but right now I think there's an oversupply of housing, automobiles, and other consumer goods, but since no one is buying these days, demand for these goods are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, because it takes years to work these kinds of things out. I just think right now that the United States is facing a financial crisis that goes far beyond what you were saying. I think the problem falls into areas of economic life that the Federal Government can't reach. It's bad now because the problems the U.S. economy faces are no longer just about having enough cash on hand, it's just that we're too ill equipped to deal with the problem.

[Tom Earp]

Originally Posted by cheerfulgreek

I just want to elaborate on what you said Tom, (I'm still laughing) but right now I think there's an oversupply of housing, automobiles, and other consumer goods, but since no one is buying these days, demand for these goods are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, because it takes years to work these kinds of things out. I just think right now that the United States is facing a financial crisis that goes far beyond what you were saying. I think the problem falls into areas of economic life that the Federal Government can't reach. It's bad now because the problems the U.S. economy faces are no longer just about having enough cash on hand, it's just that we're too ill equipped to deal with the problem.

Okay!

But in a nut shell, we as a country are in very dire straits.

Over building of homes caused the price of wood to go up. People want to move on up, and the home they leave may or may not sell.

Talking with the head of our water division of our Power/water company, he made an interesting statement that I argued about, he said that even though there is a building boom in our county, the number of water meters stayed within 1% from where it as five years ago. I was flabbergasted to say the least.

As for cars, the bloom has been off of the rose for a very long time. Is it because of the rise of better made and designed cars from other countrys. Yes.

American cars used to change styles usually every two years and had many brands. They then became pasturized as each looked like the same.

GM began by dropping brand names: Olds.
Chysler is going to if they have not already: Plymoth and Dodge.

Many of the plants built different name brands on the same frame with little design change.

Now, even so called foriegn cars are built in America with American people. Car makers have been mortaging sales for years with the low or no interest rate. People do not buy a new car every year.

Clothes, electronics, shoes, etc are being built outside of America and re-imported back cheaper.

Bear-Stern with a Fed bail out is sending shock waves across the financial world. Country Wide one of the biggest was bailed out before filing bankruptcy.

To me, instead of this would be to just change the ARM for houses to fixed rates. Keep the companies afloat and still get some interest rate money into them. It dang sure would help the home owners, keep the dollar up and keep them in houses they live in.

Maybe to simple to do?

If I close my little store, I do not ahve money to pay for the house loan, so, then what happens?

[Coramoor]

Let the market work it self out rather than letting the gov't extending this for months/years to come.

If you have lived above your means, well now the bill is due.

[cheerfulgreek]

Originally Posted by Tom Earp

Okay!

But in a nut shell, we as a country are in very dire straits.

Over building of homes caused the price of wood to go up. People want to move on up, and the home they leave may or may not sell.

Talking with the head of our water division of our Power/water company, he made an interesting statement that I argued about, he said that even though there is a building boom in our county, the number of water meters stayed within 1% from where it as five years ago. I was flabbergasted to say the least.

As for cars, the bloom has been off of the rose for a very long time. Is it because of the rise of better made and designed cars from other countrys. Yes.

American cars used to change styles usually every two years and had many brands. They then became pasturized as each looked like the same.

GM began by dropping brand names: Olds.
Chysler is going to if they have not already: Plymoth and Dodge.

Many of the plants built different name brands on the same frame with little design change.

Now, even so called foriegn cars are built in America with American people. Car makers have been mortaging sales for years with the low or no interest rate. People do not buy a new car every year.

Clothes, electronics, shoes, etc are being built outside of America and re-imported back cheaper.

Bear-Stern with a Fed bail out is sending shock waves across the financial world. Country Wide one of the biggest was bailed out before filing bankruptcy.

To me, instead of this would be to just change the ARM for houses to fixed rates. Keep the companies afloat and still get some interest rate money into them. It dang sure would help the home owners, keep the dollar up and keep them in houses they live in.

Maybe to simple to do?

If I close my little store, I do not ahve money to pay for the house loan, so, then what happens?

Tom, I agree with you, but it's more to it than this. This goes back to what I was saying before in an earlier post about the housing problem. I mentioned that there are millions of households that are close to defaulting on their loans, and like I said earlier, I'm sure a lot of the subprime lenders are going to go bankrupt if they haven't already. This financial housing problem probably will spread, if it hasn't already to the kinds of loans that finance excessively risky leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate too. On top of this, if the economy continues to fall even further, I'm sure corporate default rates will rise, which will lead to even greater losses. Like you said, it's a chain reaction, but I just think it's much deeper than some of the things you've mentioned. I read the The Wall Street Journal a lot, and it's so easy to see these things happening, if they haven't already.

I think at one time American cars were deemed unreliable, but now I think they're better made and certainly better looking, I just think they're too expensive. The foreign automakers can build their cars at a cheaper cost, so they're able to sell them cheaper, plus they offer much better warranties, and since women are the biggest auto consumers in the United States, we want something reliable, and inexpensive. I don't know much about cars, but to me I think they all look very generic, it's not just American cars that look the same.

[cheerfulgreek]

Originally Posted by Tom Earp

If I close my little store, I do not ahve money to pay for the house loan, so, then what happens?

Then you'll be added to the millions of other households that are on the verge of defaulting on their loans, due to a totally screwed up economy, but I'll be positive and say that won't happen to you. Right?