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My local sorority was in a similar situation. A group of women went to Panhel and said that they'd like to start a chapter of AEPhi. Panhel voted no, but invited the group to form a local sorority. Two years later, we petitioned again, and this time we were permitted to go national.
I'd say it depends on a variety of factors, including rush numbers, whether all/most sororities are at/over total, and who (which specific women as well as which sororities) happens to be in Panhel leadership roles at the time.
If the sorority has been petitioning every year for several years and is consistently turned down by a wide margin, then they have a tough choice - go with the non-NPC org and lose some sisters, or stay local, recognizing that NPC membership isn't likely to happen anytime soon.
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AEΦ ... Multa Corda, Una Causa ... Celebrating Over 100 Years of Sisterhood
Have no place I can be since I found Serenity, but you can't take the sky from me...
Only those who risk going too far, find out how far they can go.
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