Amy Coney Barrett

[thetalady]

Originally Posted by What?

Sallie, I applaud your perspective and continued willingness to make well reasoned points that have proven unpopular on this forum.

I hope that I am proven wrong, but like Ronaldo, I do not share your optimism. I am terrified of the voter fraud that MSM sweeps under the rug.

TriDeltaSallie, loved your analysis. Thank you for your perspective. Like What?, I fear the possibility of massive voter fraud. Seeing states that are dragging out voting now to a week after Nov 3 makes it clear that this election is going to be full of fraud. Already finding large numbers of ballots trashed. Conspiracies for vote harvesting in older populations already running rampant.

[carnation]

Hey, my daughter got sent a ballot. She passed away in 2018.

[TriDeltaSallie]

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why.

[bevinpiphi]

Originally Posted by TriDeltaSallie

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why.

Within my own personal circle, of those who have stated they voted Trump in 2016, he’s losing about half of those votes, but I also recognize that my circle is not an actual cross section for voters. My dad was a “bought a red hat as soon as he could” Trump supporter for 2016 who is voting for Biden this election cycle.

[Benzgirl]

Originally Posted by bevinpiphi

Within my own personal circle, of those who have stated they voted Trump in 2016, he’s losing about half of those votes, but I also recognize that my circle is not an actual cross section for voters. My dad was a “bought a red hat as soon as he could” Trump supporter for 2016 who is voting for Biden this election cycle.

My father is a life-long Republican but saw through Trump's lies in 2016 and voted for HRC. He woke me up this morning to tell me Trump tested positive for COVID and my father hates the telephone so it must have been very important to him. I guess he falls into that 10% of Republicans that Sallie quoted as not supporting Trump, but he is highly educated and still running his consulting business at age 88.

Here is a breakdown of the Republicans in my family.

The Ohio and Georgia Republicans are all voting for Biden except one question mark. He won't discuss how he is voting but his wife put a Biden sign in their front yard and he hasn't removed it.
The Texas/Colorado Republican family members are...well...Texas Republicans and made their money from oil. I don't need to ask how they plan to vote but one has said she is sitting out this election because she doesn't like either candidate.
The Florida Republicans are voting for Biden because they are in the healthcare field (one is an MD and the other a CNP) and see first-hand how Trump mishandled COVID.

Again, not a good cross-section since it's just my family and about one-half of them are Democrats who vote country over party. Only my personal situation but I'm sure at least one new member will become agressives over this post.

[What?]

Originally Posted by Benzgirl

My father is a life-long Republican but saw through Trump's lies in 2016 and voted for HRC. He woke me up this morning to tell me Trump tested positive for COVID and my father hates the telephone so it must have been very important to him. I guess he falls into that 10% of Republicans that Sallie quoted as not supporting Trump, but he is highly educated and still running his consulting business at age 88.

Here is a breakdown of the Republicans in my family.

The Ohio and Georgia Republicans are all voting for Biden except one question mark. He won't discuss how he is voting but his wife put a Biden sign in their front yard and he hasn't removed it.
The Texas/Colorado Republican family members are...well...Texas Republicans and made their money from oil. I don't need to ask how they plan to vote but one has said she is sitting out this election because she doesn't like either candidate.
The Florida Republicans are voting for Biden because they are in the healthcare field (one is an MD and the other a CNP) and see first-hand how Trump mishandled COVID.

Again, not a good cross-section since it's just my family and about one-half of them are Democrats who vote country over party. Only my personal situation but I'm sure at least one new member will become agressives over this post.

I do not know if I am one of the new members to whom the last sentence was directed, but I will take the bait to say that I am sure that everyone has policies that are more important to them than others and I encourage them to vote in their self interest. I have a first cousin-in-law who may be getting a divorce because she cannot get over the fact that her wife is voting for Trump. Her PhD wife is doing so because she has weighed the pros and cons and realizes that her LGBTQ rights are not in real danger but the fears of street crime and socialism (the thing that resulted in the death of her great grandparents) are the key issues for her.

On the other hand, I know several Republicans in my super blue state who are just simply not voting because the options are so bad. I was almost among their ranks 4 years ago. I find both of our options terrible, it is just a matter of choosing the one that YOU consider less terrible.

[Benzgirl]

Originally Posted by What?

I do not know if I am one of the new members to whom the last sentence was directed, but I will take the bait to say that I am sure that everyone has policies that are more important to them than others and I encourage them to vote in their self interest. I have a first cousin-in-law who may be getting a divorce because she cannot get over the fact that her wife is voting for Trump. Her PhD wife is doing so because she has weighed the pros and cons and realizes that her LGBTQ rights are not in real danger but the fears of street crime and socialism (the thing that resulted in the death of her great grandparents) are the key issues for her.

On the other hand, I know several Republicans in my super blue state who are just simply not voting because the options are so bad. I was almost among their ranks 4 years ago. I find both of our options terrible, it is just a matter of choosing the one that YOU consider less terrible.

No but while your "high fives" were annoying, the posts right out of Russian propaganda from another were bat shit crazy.
BTW...socialism in the United States is a scare tactic I would expect anyone with a college degree to see through.

[TriDeltaSallie]

I check out Rod Dreher's blog a few times a month to gauge what is going on in Never Trumper or Almost Never Trumper land. His commenters tend to be all over the place.

He often shares comments and emails on his posts. I thought these were instructive.

Per your post, I had the exact same thought about Trump voters and pollsters after hanging out the other day with several couples we get together with every few weeks. It was at our house and it was clear people felt “safe” — and somewhat to my chagrin that meant the conversation immediately turned political. Every one of them is a Trump voter, but it was crystal clear none of them would talk to a pollster in a million years. All expressed a deep distrust that ANYONE outside a very tight knit circle of trust could be relied upon not to use information about their politics to harm them. They basically took it for granted that if they gave politically incorrect answers to a pollster their name was going on a list that would be used by the left to take punitive action against them in the future.

These are all pretty successful, solid folks, who I know from experience would give you the shirt off their back – the kind of people who would typically be defenders and sustainers of the institutions that have helped give them a pretty good life. But their level of social trust is now basically zero. It’s disturbing, but I get it.

and

Apropos of what you say about formerly Trump-hesitant people losing their hesitation, I relay to you the following personal anecdote.

Last night I was watching the Spectator’s recent YouTube video analyzing the state of the election (recommended, by the way). My wife was doing paperwork in the same room and half paying attention. Afterward, she said to me, “Are you going to vote for Trump? I think we have to.” And she spent the next few minutes trying to convince me to vote for him.

Here’s the thing about that. I didn’t vote for Trump (or Clinton) in ‘16. I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Like you, I’m a social and religious conservative who generally thinks that Trump’s manifest character flaws and general nuttiness disqualify him for high office. I’m increasingly inclined to vote for him this year, but I remain undecided. But my wife… she went to [elite New England boarding school] and then to [super-liberal Northern college], where she majored in fine arts. She has a graduate degree in [a psychology-related field], and went to Burning Man multiple times and loved it. She’s not a very political person, but if I had to pin her down, I would call her a Rockefeller Republican: leave the family trust alone, no capital gains tax, and social libertarianism. Sort of the opposite of me, now that I think about it. She’s also a survivor of sexual violence, which inclines her to the #BelieveWomen position. But the point is: the events of this summer have shifted her into the position of thinking it is urgently important to vote for Trump, and she spent some minutes last night trying to convince me of this urgency.

I don’t need much convincing. But it was a personal mundus inversus moment for me, illustrating what you talk about in your post – how the Left is driving erstwhile normies, and even some elite New Englander types (QED) into Trump’s camp. I’m so used to my wife being the politically moderating voice in our marriage, pulling me from my quasi-integralist orbit back towards the center. But this summer has really shaken things up. Biden may still win, but that won’t prove that our media institutions have harmonized themselves with reality, or understood the electorate, to a greater extent than they did in ‘16.

Taken from this post: Soft Totalitarianism & Anti-Biden Ad

Stories don't prove anything, but they can add to formulating an overall understanding of what is happening.

[TriDeltaSallie]

Originally Posted by What?

I have a first cousin-in-law who may be getting a divorce because she cannot get over the fact that her wife is voting for Trump. Her PhD wife is doing so because she has weighed the pros and cons and realizes that her LGBTQ rights are not in real danger but the fears of street crime and socialism (the thing that resulted in the death of her great grandparents) are the key issues for her.

That is a fascinating story.

There are a lot of relationships under a lot of strain in this country.

[Cheerio]

Originally Posted by TriDeltaSallie

It would be great if someone would create a list for a Biden landslide like the one I created for a Trump landslide.

I've seen so many articles predicting a Biden landslide or comfortable victory, but haven't seen anyone lay out a systematic explanation for it that explains things such as where Biden will pick up voters Hillary Clinton didn't get or which groups of former Trump voters will switch to Biden and why.

Stating the obvious, it may turn out the Electoral College does it again for Trump while the popular vote again goes to the Democrat candidate.

[bevinpiphi]

I played around on that fivethirtyeight site, entering my own predictions for how I think each state will go....and ended up with an electoral college tie

It really hinges on how just a couple of states fall, for me.

[Benzgirl]

Originally Posted by bevinpiphi

I played around on that fivethirtyeight site, entering my own predictions for how I think each state will go....and ended up with an electoral college tie

It really hinges on how just a couple of states fall, for me.

I only see the Democrats losing one seat to Republicans (Alabama) but the Republicans losing numerous seats to Democrats. Some are still too close to call.

The seats that will definitely flip from Republican to Democrat will be:
- Arizona: Kelly over McSally
- Colorado: Hickenlooper over Gardner
- Special Election Georgia Seat: Warnock over Loeffler and Doug Collins

The seats that will most likely flip from Republican to Democrat:
- North Carolina: Cunningham over Tillis
- Maine: Gideon over Susan Collins

The seats that are a dead heat that could possibly flip from Republican to Democrat:
- Iowa: Ernst and Greenfield are split in the polls
- Montana: Bullock and Daines are equal
- For the other Georgia seat, Perdue deserves to lose to Ossoff after his poor performance in the last debate caused him to withdraw from the final debate and possible insider trading charges pending.

[ComradesTrue]

Originally Posted by Benzgirl

I only see the Democrats losing one seat to Republicans (Alabama) but the Republicans losing numerous seats to Democrats. Some are still too close to call.

The seats that will definitely flip from Republican to Democrat will be:
- Arizona: Kelly over McSally
- Colorado: Hickenlooper over Gardner
- Special Election Georgia Seat: Warnock over Loeffler and Doug Collins

However, in the special election a candidate must receive 50% of the vote or there is a run-off on January 5th. Once Loeffler's and Collins' bases combine forces then it will be a harder road for Warnock.

I agree with the rest of your predictions, though I do think Greenfield will pull it out in Iowa.

[ComradesTrue]

Originally Posted by Benzgirl

I only see the Democrats losing one seat to Republicans (Alabama) but the Republicans losing numerous seats to Democrats. Some are still too close to call.

The seats that will definitely flip from Republican to Democrat will be:
- Arizona: Kelly over McSally
- Colorado: Hickenlooper over Gardner
- Special Election Georgia Seat: Warnock over Loeffler and Doug Collins

However, in the special election a candidate must receive 50% of the vote or there is a run-off on January 5th. Once Loeffler's and Collins' bases combine forces then it will be a harder road for Warnock.

I agree with the rest of your predictions.