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I read the same figure last week - 40% to 70% infection by the time the virus has run its course and/or a vaccine can be formulated. That figure came from an epidemiologist who has worked with the CDC, and was quoted in The Atlantic magazine.
Given that the Spanish Influenza of 1918-19 eventually infected more than a third of all humans on the planet before it mutated into less deadly strains (that have been with us ever since), a 40% infection rate for Covid-19 isn't so far outside the realm of probability.
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