I don't think there is a hard and fast rule about where a new chapter "starts" in RFM. As in all things, I think campus culture, how the new chapter is doing, and other things go into the decision of where their original return figures land in RFM. This is another area were the RFM specialist has some training, and its one of those things that she ultimately decides (taking into consideration various factors). However, this is one of the reasons why there are flex lists. Since most new chapters have consultants who start on campus during a chapters 1st formal recruitment, hopefully these chapters are well advised on the importance of these and why should be used wisely.
My personal experience with new chapters and RFM was with a very different situation. The year this particular chapter was colonized, two other new chapters were joining campus with an existing chapter and they basically did an accept/regret formal recruitment (non-RFM). They eventually moved to RFM (if I can remember right, it was one more additional year of "old school" before RFM started), and by that time they chapter I advised were the top recruiters on campus (with only 2 chapters on campus (the other 2 who colonized unfortunately didn't make it), everyone gets 100% return rates (PNMs are required to accept invites to all chapters invited through pref), and they had fantastic returns on their Bid lists).
The only other new chapter RFM situation I am familiar with is Arkansas from this fall, and that was a little different due to the variable quotas on campus. That obviously affected RFM numbers in a different way than most campuses.
Hopefully someone else can enlightened you guys a little better
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