Survivor: Gabon

[ASTalumna06]

Originally Posted by srmom

Susie is delusional if she thinks there is some way to fenagle herself into top 3, she isn't high enough in any concievable alliance to do so.

If the other tribe goes to tribal, either Matty or Sugar will go and if there is a merge, the #s will be equal, then the true gamesmanship will start.

BTW, I hate Randy - he is a jerk!

I agree about Crystal. I've never been thrilled with her. And she gives up extremely fast at challenges. But the fact is, when you're cocky, it usually comes back to bite you, and that's what happened to Marcus, and it was sooooooooo sweet to watch

I think Susie has now worked her way into the alliance with Crystal and Kenny, which will bode well for them in terms of the numbers game. The two of them, plus Matty and Sugar, need her. Simple as that. But even if it ends up being the 5 of them at the end, she'll probably be the first to go. There's no way she's making it to the final 3 no matter how you look at it.

The only thing Matty and Sugar can count on now is the immunity idol. Fortunately for them, this week's immunity challenge didn't require a team effort, because I don't think their team cared much about winning.

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by ASTalumna06

The only thing Matty and Sugar can count on now is the immunity idol. Fortunately for them, this week's immunity challenge didn't require a team effort, because I don't think their team cared much about winning.

I've been wondering. When Corinne and the other old Kotas see that Marcus has gone, they'll know that Susie turned on them. They'll also know that Bob has a big ol' target on his back. That will leave Corinne and Charlie and Randy from the old Kota and Corinne and Charlie from the onion alliance. Assuming there is one more tribal council, I think if I were them, I might be looking now at drawing Sugar or Matty into their alliance, especially if Bob is the next to leave. Otherwise, they'll be picked off next.

Sugar might be willing, since she's now distrustful of Kenny. Matty might be willing, since he too was blindsided last week and has issues with Crystal. (And at least he's decided he won't swear on his girlfriend's life anymore. )

They should be guessing that Sugar has the idol -- I haven't decided yet how I think that should play in to their stategy. I can see it both ways.

I can also see the next immunity challenge being interesting: I can see the onion alliance trying to throw it to save Bob from another tribal council, and I can see Crystal, Kenny and Susie trying to throw it to get Bob to another tribal council. If anybody can throw a challenge convincingly, it should be Crystal, Kenny and Susie.

[ASTalumna06]

^^ Good points.

If they lose Bob, they're screwed, and Matty and Sugar would be dumb to team up with the other three.

And I tend to think that if Kota loses another challenge (and they probably will) it won't have to be on purpose. And even if they did want it to happen, it would definitely be believable.

I hope next week everyone just lies down and sees who can be the worst at a challenge, as the alliances in the majority on each team would probably like to lose

[srmom]

Yep, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see someone try to throw the challenge. Last night, being an individual immunity type challenge, did not lend itself to getting thrown - and kudos to Matty (and Bob, who would have thought the old coot had it in him) for lasting as long as he did. He was fighting for his life and he knew it. BUT, if next week's challenge is a team event, he might be a goner.

With Sugar holding the idol, the 3 can't do the old split the vote thing because if they voted 2 for Sugar and 1 for Matty and Sugar and Matty voted together, Sugar could play the idol and whoever she and Matty vote for will get the boot. They will have to vote as a bloc for Matty and hope Sugar doesn't "lend" him the idol. That would certainly flip things!!

I don't think Matty particularly cares for Crystal (who would for heaven's sake), so when the merge comes, he may flip on his own anyway just to get away from the Crystal/Kenny/Susie/Sugar alliance. Although, it would behoove him to stay in it because from a physical standpoint, he can whip all their asses, and when it comes down to a jury vote, he would probably win because he hasn't been snakey (yet) and he has played with an incredible amount of heart, he's just been stuck on the sucky team every mix-up.

[madmax]

Did anyone see the pics of the idol floating in the water?


That idol is going to come back into play. Either someone is going to go back and get the idol(I would) or the idol is going to wash up on shore and someone will find it.

[AGDee]

Originally Posted by madmax

Did anyone see the pics of the idol floating in the water?


That idol is going to come back into play. Either someone is going to go back and get the idol(I would) or the idol is going to wash up on shore and someone will find it.

I was thinking that too because they made a point to show it floating along the water.

[SydneyK]

Yeah, last night was interesting. I'm not too disappointed to see Marcus go (surprised that Susie actually went through with it, though). I just hope Bob finds a way to stick around.

I was surprised that Jeff didn't say anything about the idol getting set out to sea. I guess he already knew and just didn't think it was worth mentioning? (Disclaimer: I was watching the Hokie/Terrapin football game and missed some things, so maybe he did say something after all.)

[ASTalumna06]

Originally Posted by srmom

I don't think Matty particularly cares for Crystal (who would for heaven's sake), so when the merge comes, he may flip on his own anyway just to get away from the Crystal/Kenny/Susie/Sugar alliance. Although, it would behoove him to stay in it because from a physical standpoint, he can whip all their asses, and when it comes down to a jury vote, he would probably win because he hasn't been snakey (yet) and he has played with an incredible amount of heart, he's just been stuck on the sucky team every mix-up.

He's been stuck on the sucky team but I think that's worked to his advantage. He's the good guy who's strong and doesn't cause any problems. Even if his team loses, he knows his name isn't going on the ballots.

Originally Posted by madmax

Did anyone see the pics of the idol floating in the water?

That idol is going to come back into play. Either someone is going to go back and get the idol(I would) or the idol is going to wash up on shore and someone will find it.

That's exactly what I was thinking.

Originally Posted by SydneyK

I was surprised that Jeff didn't say anything about the idol getting set out to sea. I guess he already knew and just didn't think it was worth mentioning? (Disclaimer: I was watching the Hokie/Terrapin football game and missed some things, so maybe he did say something after all.)

I don't remember him mentioning it. Which again, makes me think that it's going to come back into the game.

[a.e.B.O.T.]

I dont think there will be much luck in Sugar hooking up with Kenny and Crystal... and I don't think suzie will be quick to stick with them either... It really depends if there will be another cast off before the merge, but I think The Onion clan could easily take in matty and sugar in Marcus and maybe Bobs place...

[ASTalumna06]

Any predictions for who’s getting tossed tonight?

As long as the tribes stay intact before tonight’s tribal council, I’m guessing it'll be Corinne.

I WOULD guess Randy, but that might just be wishful thinking.

[a.e.B.O.T.]

You have to give it to Bob, that is the best fake idol ever...

[SWTXBelle]

Yep - good strategy, and the idol is believable.

MERGE.

Please, please, let Randy go.

eta - and Crystal. Can they both get booted? Please?

[a.e.B.O.T.]

I am going to throw this out there at the risk of criticism... I love this season... It was SOO clear in the beginning for TOO many weeks the direction the gay was going, and in the last 4 evictions, that has changed... I don't like Crystal, but the fact that she is still there, with kenny as well as sugar, and marcus ace and charlie are gone... unfreakingbelievable... power to the weaker players!!!

[ASTalumna06]

Originally Posted by a.e.B.O.T.

You have to give it to Bob, that is the best fake idol ever...

That was AWESOME. Especially because he made it out of whatever he found on Exile. He's kind of amazing.

Originally Posted by a.e.B.O.T.

I am going to throw this out there at the risk of criticism... I love this season... It was SOO clear in the beginning for TOO many weeks the direction the gay was going, and in the last 4 evictions, that has changed... I don't like Crystal, but the fact that she is still there, with kenny as well as sugar, and marcus ace and charlie are gone... unfreakingbelievable... power to the weaker players!!!

I just love how Corinne, Charlie and Randy were all mad that Marcus was voted off. They made that perfectly clear at tribal. I wanted someone to say, "The only reason you're mad is because he was in your alliance!" The fact is, he got cocky, he thought he owned the game, he tried to manipulate the other players in his tribe, they caught him, and he got sent home. Susie was a toss up, as she didn't really connect with anyone on Kota, and Marcus should have seen that. He didn't, he got sent home.

Physically, the weaker players are still in the game, but they obviously know how to play it.

Sending Charlie home was pure genius. Just like Marcus, no one saw it coming. It shakes up the other alliance. And Sugar was smart to stay with Matty, et al. because Marcus was already on the jury and she might as well have sent another member from their alliance in. Fact is, she was going to "betray" one alliance no matter what she did, and it might as well have been the one that she's never been too close with.

I think that next week, someone's going to try to suck up to Matty's alliance. Bob might make his way in, but everyone can see right through Corinne and Randy.

Oh, and props to Susie for winning immunity!

[srmom]

Yes, have to give kudos to the weak(er) alliance. They certainly are players. Although I cannot stand Crystal, my dislike of Kenny is growing, he is just becoming more and more like a skinny, bug bitten Marcus! How much gloating and "master minding" will his competitors stand?

I love Bob! That fake idol was amazing! I hope he can use it to his advantage and stay on.

I would love to see Randy, Kenny and Crystal leave in no particular order.

Susie went up in my book by winning the challenge - great fire starter!