Dems: Popular Vote vs Electoral College Votes?

[nittanyalum]

The OP asked for opinions and that's what I gave. We need to be able to have a discussion about this situation without people squaring off.

I said it doesn't mean Obama WON'T win those states, but it doesn't guarantee he will. There's much talk about who will defect from the democratic base and vote for McCain (or not at all), if one or the other is the candidate and who will just switch and vote for whatever Dem is the candidate.

As the OP said:

Sen. Obama is popular among the wealthy, has 90% of Black vote, and young voters. He has won the popular vote, more states, has raised more money ($240 M), has more pledged delegates but hasn't won any large states needed to win the general election.

On the other hand, you have Sen. Clinton who has won all of the large states needed to become President, is popular with white women, white men, blue collar workers who are among the key demos needed to win the general election. She has more 'superdelegates' but trails in the popular vote and in fundraising by about $90M.

So the question is, who is more likely to attract the other's support base in the general election? Will the black voters flock to Hillary? Will white men and blue collar workers flock to Obama? Or are they so anti-the other candidate that they might then see McCain as the lesser of evils or just be so disgusted they just sit on their hands? The youth support is encouraging to see especially in Obama's campaign, but time after time, the turnout in the 18-24 vote is more than disappointing. So counting on that vote to pull a candidate through may be folly.

Do I think a Democrat will win Texas? Honestly, this year, it may just depend. If McCain can't win over enough party faithful to get them out to the polls and the Democrat can energize and get the vote out among their supporters, then who knows what may happen in some of those "stronghold" states. I'd be surprised if one of these Democrats takes a state like Texas, but it will really depend on how effective McCain is in pulling GOPers in and getting them out to vote. And if he is at all vulnerable, then it may turn on which Democrat can capitalize on any weaknesses and redouble efforts to win electoral votes out of the big states.

So that was the basis of thought in my saying that there may be some validity at looking at who has been able to generate a "winning" campaign in the big states. Against another democrat or no, proving you can make someone get up out of their house and to a polling place is important to a candidates' success.