If Al Gore was president....

[shinerbock]

Don't worry about it, and seeing as i go to your alma mater, we probably are in the same part of the country. What I think you're underestimating is how much many evangelicals hate Hillary Clinton. I'm pretty conservative, but I don't abhor her like many do. Now, I think there is a legitimate chance that a weaker GOP candidate could result in less motivation among the base, but I still have a hard time imagining it would be a swing big enough to allow Hillary to win. She's done a good job at shaking off some of her brash image, but people still remember her, and all those quotes are gonna come back over the next year. This is why I think the only real shot the Democrats have is to run a moderate-feel-good candidate. Obama will be that guy in the future, but he's not there yet. I think there's two ways to draw weak republicans or weak dems over to the other side. The first is that you run a moderate candidate, and your more intense faction wants to look elsewhere. I don't see that happening here, because even if Rudy is the GOP nominee, theres not going to be a Democratic candidate who can get those votes. Likewise, it won't happen with democrats switching to the GOP. On the other hand, I think sometimes you'll get crossover when the opposing candidate is a little more moderate and optimistic while your party's candidate is a little father out than the general party. Again, I don't see this being an issue for the GOP because whoever gets the nomination will be quite a change from W. All of the big 3 GOP guys are going to be more moderate, and all have better leadership potential off the bat. On the other hand, say Hillary is the nominee with McCain. I think theres a chance that centrist dems would cross over, because despite her efforts to reign in her image, Hillary is still somebody that is very polarizing, even within her own party. Of course, things happen, there could be a third candidate which messes up the voting, but as it stands I think the only person Hillary could beat would be Mitt Romney, and I think that will change once the country really starts finding out about him. In my opinion he is probably the most presidential of the three, and as displayed by early fund raising he has by far the most momentum among GOP candidates. It'll be interesting, I'm excited about seeing it play out.

[UGAalum94]

I thought you were an Auburn guy.

Anyway, not that any of this reflects my personal positions, but I can see that there are a lot of people out there who want to believe. They want optimism and hope. They've lost faith in the political process and politics as usual. Being an outsider or a national political novice could count in Obama's favor. Being multi-racial, too, can count in his favor because people like to be self-congratulatory when it comes to issues of race. Don't undercount the number of people who would love to be able to self-righteously tell everybody: look at me; I support the multi-racial guy.

I understand it when you say that you don't think he's there yet, but I think this could be a Jimmy Carter election kind of election (not that that was a good thing, either, in 1976). His not being ready is part of what makes him attractive because he's unsullied.

Hillary. I agree that she's polarizing. But on some level she really would compliment Obama's weaknesses. A ticket that had both of them might be strong in the general election because there's of course no way they can both come out of the primaries. I don't know if her ego could take it though.

I have no idea what will happen with the GOP.

[shinerbock]

As a republican I hope they run together. I just don't think she can win, regardless of who is with her. I think you're right to a degree about Obama, he's refreshing. However, I think his issue stances will preclude many people from crossing over and voting for him. I also think the racial thing will likely not work in his favor. There are a lot of people who would vote for him because of that, but there is probably an equal faction who would be hesitant because of it. I also think what people say and what people will do in a voting booth can be quite different. We'll see how it pans out. I am an Auburn guy, but i'm here for grad school.