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I think Arras got that question wrong on purpose. He knew that Cirie only had to get it right to win, whether he was right or not. He also knew that Cirie was going to take him along on the Reward trip. However, this way, Cirie was the one who had to alienate people by sending someone to Exile Island and by choosing who to take on the Reward trip. He didn't have to become a bad guy to anybody.
I think he's quite bright and if Terry doesn't win, then I think Arras should
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