So now the two most popular people on the show (Rodger and Elisabeth) are goners. Kind of a downer. Here's how I think it will pan out next week: Keith will not win, but he is guaranteed second place. The reason is this:
We're down to the final three: Colby, Keith, and Tina. Say Colby wins the final Immunity Challenge next week (which he probably will, since he always does). So since he will cast the only vote at that night's Tribal Council, he has the power to determine who he will be up against in the final two. He will probably vote out Tina and keep Keith for the final two and let the jury decide between himself and Keith. I'm sure Colby realizes that he has a better chance against Keith than he would if it came down to him and Tina. Same goes for Tina if she happens to win the IC.
If Keith wins the IC...well, he basically gets to choose who will win the $1 million. I really can't see Keith getting more votes from the jury than either Colby or Tina. Although I personally have thought he was pretty cool since the beginning.
Think about the final Survivor last year: when Kelly had the choice of voting out Rudy or Rich, she voted for Rudy. The reason? She thought that she would have more jury support in the final round if she was up against Rich as opposed to Rudy.
Can you tell that I have spent a lot of time analyzing this? Oh well, I suppose there are worse things to be obsessed with...
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