Hurricane Ivan

[lifesaver]

The old meterologist in lifesaver says Ivan is gonna hit Louisania.

Ivan shoullda turned by now.

I'm scared for my famly, less than an hour north of Freeport, in Texas.

If it's not now. It will be soon. From the NWS site:

"Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether or not it is due to sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 that are periods in the climatological record of "hurricane-rich" and "hurricane poor" sets of years. A hurricane-rich set of year is represented by an average of 8 storms making landfall over an average of 10 years, plus or minus a couple of either. A hurricane-poor set of years is represented by an average of 2 storms making landfall over an average of 14 years, plus or minus a couple of either.

Using this pattern, he correctly predicted the hurricane-rich period he was entering in 1956 (it lasted from 1954-1971). Using this pattern, it is noted that the Texas coast has been in a hurricane-poor period since 1990. This would mean that at least one more landfalling hurricanes should be expected by around 2004. Thereafter, a hurricane-rich period would begin, lasting until approximately 2015, in which nearly eight hurricanes would make landfall. Remember, it only takes one hurricane making landfall in your location to create grief for you and your loved ones.