|
Don't worry about it, and seeing as i go to your alma mater, we probably are in the same part of the country. What I think you're underestimating is how much many evangelicals hate Hillary Clinton. I'm pretty conservative, but I don't abhor her like many do. Now, I think there is a legitimate chance that a weaker GOP candidate could result in less motivation among the base, but I still have a hard time imagining it would be a swing big enough to allow Hillary to win. She's done a good job at shaking off some of her brash image, but people still remember her, and all those quotes are gonna come back over the next year. This is why I think the only real shot the Democrats have is to run a moderate-feel-good candidate. Obama will be that guy in the future, but he's not there yet. I think there's two ways to draw weak republicans or weak dems over to the other side. The first is that you run a moderate candidate, and your more intense faction wants to look elsewhere. I don't see that happening here, because even if Rudy is the GOP nominee, theres not going to be a Democratic candidate who can get those votes. Likewise, it won't happen with democrats switching to the GOP. On the other hand, I think sometimes you'll get crossover when the opposing candidate is a little more moderate and optimistic while your party's candidate is a little father out than the general party. Again, I don't see this being an issue for the GOP because whoever gets the nomination will be quite a change from W. All of the big 3 GOP guys are going to be more moderate, and all have better leadership potential off the bat. On the other hand, say Hillary is the nominee with McCain. I think theres a chance that centrist dems would cross over, because despite her efforts to reign in her image, Hillary is still somebody that is very polarizing, even within her own party. Of course, things happen, there could be a third candidate which messes up the voting, but as it stands I think the only person Hillary could beat would be Mitt Romney, and I think that will change once the country really starts finding out about him. In my opinion he is probably the most presidential of the three, and as displayed by early fund raising he has by far the most momentum among GOP candidates. It'll be interesting, I'm excited about seeing it play out.
|
Threaded Mode