Feds to file lawsuit over Arizona immigration law

[DaemonSeid]

National Crime Report numbers for Arizona

if true, would really make you wonder what the real motivating factor is for the new law.

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by DaemonSeid

National Crime Report numbers for Arizona

if true, would really make you wonder what the real motivating factor is for the new law.

I thought this deserved to be posted from your link:

The facts on crime in Arizona

• Violent crimes in Arizona are down by 15 percent since 2006: The FBI’s preliminary Uniform Crime Report, or UCR, for 2009 shows that violent crime—murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault—is down in Arizona for the third year in a row. The absolute number of violent crimes in 2006 was 30,916 in Arizona. By 2009 it had dropped by 15 percent to 26,094.
• Per-capita violent crime rate dropped by 22 percent: Factoring in the change in Arizona’s population, the rate of violent crime per 100,000 persons in 2009 was 390.5, which is a 22 percent decrease from 501.4 per 100,000 in 2006. For comparison’s sake, the violent crime rate in nonborder states such as Georgia and Florida was 410.6 and 604.9 respectively in 2009.
• Arizona’s violent and property crime rate drop was twice the national average: Nationally, violent and property crimes were down between 2008 and 2009, but Arizona saw rates of decline more than double that. The nation as a whole saw a -5.5 percent change in violent crime and -4.9 percent change in property crime from 2008 to 2009, but Arizona experienced a percent change of -11.1 in the former and -12 in the latter in this same time period.
• Kidnappings are tied to Mexico’s organized crime syndicate, not innocent Americans: It’s clear that Arizona has an organized crime problem, with 267 kidnappings in 2009 in Phoenix alone. But the kidnappings most often occur when human smugglers—who are usually part of Mexican drug cartels—demand more money for their services. As Phoenix police Sgt. Tommy Thompson said, “We’re talking about the kidnapping of smugglers and associates. I have no fear that my kids or grandkids will be victims.” This means that our efforts must be directed toward two fronts: fixing our broken immigration system so that people can immigrate legally with visas and not illegally with smugglers, and helping to resolve the deadly war on drugs in Mexico.

A safer southwest border

• Border cities are among the nation’s safest: Phoenix and other large border (and near-border) cities have some of the nation’s lowest crime rates, including San Diego, El Paso, and Austin.
• Border counties have low violent crime rates: Counties along the southwest border have some of the lowest rates of violent crime per capita in the nation. Their rates have dropped by more than 30 percent since the 1990s.
• There’s no evidence of “spillover” of violence from Mexico: El Paso, Texas, has three bridges leading directly into Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, a city which has suffered a significant percentage of the national death toll brought on by the Mexican war on drug cartels, which approaches 23,000 today. El Paso experienced only 12 murders in 2009, which was actually down from 17 in 2008. San Diego, California saw 41 murders in 2009, down from 55 in 2008, and Tucson, Arizona experienced 35 in 2009, a significant decrease from the 65 murders committed in 2008. Claims of spillover violence are clearly overblown.
• High-immigrant cities are safer: Christopher Dickey, Paris bureau chief and Middle East regional editor for Newsweek, points out that, “San Antonio saw violent crime drop from 9,699 incidents to 7,844; murders from 116 to 99. Compare that with a city like Detroit, which is a little bigger than El Paso and much smaller than San Antonio—and not exactly a magnet for job-seeking immigrants. Its murder rate went up from 323 in 2008 to 361 in 2009.” This recent pattern falls right in line with the calculations of Tim Wadsworth, sociologist from the University of Colorado at Boulder. In Wadsworth’s recent study he concludes that “cities with the largest increases in immigration between 1990 and 2000 experienced the largest decreases in homicide and robbery during the same time period.”

Arizona law undermines community safety

• Civilian cooperation will decrease: A delegation of police chiefs from major cities in Arizona and across the country met on May 26 with Attorney General Eric Holder to make clear they opposed the Arizona law because it would hurt local law enforcement efforts. As Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck said following the meeting, “This is not a law that increases public safety. This is a bill that makes it much harder for us to do our jobs...crime will go up if this becomes law in Arizona or in any other state.” That’s because police need full cooperation from residents—legal and otherwise—in order to solve and prevent crime.
• Immigrant communities will be marginalized: Arizona’s new law will “drive a wedge between some communities and law enforcement” instead of reducing crime, argues Rob Davis, police chief of San Jose, California. It will erode the mutual trust and cooperation that police have worked to develop and maintain with immigrant communities throughout the years and instead alienate these communities.
• Resources will be diverted from fighting serious crime: Police resources in Arizona will be taken away from serious crime investigations and redirected to questioning the legal status of otherwise lawful individuals. That’s why the Arizona Association of Chiefs of Police opposes S.B. 1070. “We are stretched very thin right now. We don't have enough resources to continue to do this and to take on another responsibility,” said Josh Harris, head of the association.

After being here for two months, Phoenix is a very clean, safe city. I feel much more safe here than I did in Baltimore.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by AOII Angel

I thought this deserved to be posted from your link:
[/LIST]After being here for two months, Phoenix is a very clean, safe city. I feel much more safe here than I did in Baltimore.

Those stats are essentially meaningless without accounting for causation/correlation problems, though.

[starang21]

Originally Posted by AOII Angel

After being here for two months, Phoenix is a very clean, safe city. I feel much more safe here than I did in Baltimore.

i think about 99 percent of the cities in the country are safer than baltimore, lol.

[Drolefille]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Those stats are essentially meaningless without accounting for causation/correlation problems, though.

Sure, but no one has showed that illegal immigration leads to an increase in crime either. They just flash the stats.

[PiKA2001]

Originally Posted by starang21

i think about 99 percent of the cities in the country are safer than baltimore, lol.

Right? Feeling "safe" or "not safe" is all in ones head. I felt that DC was safe when I lived even though I'm sure there are people that are hella scared of that town, but I was also coming there via Detroit.

[KSig RC]

Originally Posted by Drolefille

Sure, but no one has showed that illegal immigration leads to an increase in crime either. They just flash the stats.

Right - I'll agree with that completely. For both sides, crime stats are the dog and pony show to avoid discussing the real problems with policy on either side (namely, that they don't address incentives/motivation for illegal entry - it's easier to build a fence than start from scratch).

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by starang21

i think about 99 percent of the cities in the country are safer than baltimore, lol.

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Right - I'll agree with that completely. For both sides, crime stats are the dog and pony show to avoid discussing the real problems with policy on either side (namely, that they don't address incentives/motivation for illegal entry - it's easier to build a fence than start from scratch).

Yeah, but it's a lot easier to feel safe when the crime rate is low. People feel safe around their families, but statistically, you're more likely to be killed by your own family member than an illegal immigrant.

BTW, I felt safer where I lived in Baltimore than I did in Shreveport, LA.

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Right - I'll agree with that completely. For both sides, crime stats are the dog and pony show to avoid discussing the real problems with policy on either side (namely, that they don't address incentives/motivation for illegal entry - it's easier to build a fence than start from scratch).

Ding ding ding.

[Drolefille]

Originally Posted by AOII Angel

Yeah, but it's a lot easier to feel safe when the crime rate is low. People feel safe around their families, but statistically, you're more likely to be killed by your own family member than an illegal immigrant.

BTW, I felt safer where I lived in Baltimore than I did in Shreveport, LA.

You're messing with my head woman. I was trying to quote you and your post went poof.

Anyway, most crimes seem to be that way. I'm not actually sure which crimes are more likely to be perpetrated by a stranger rather than by a family member or acquaintance. Murder, rape, child abuse, all are committed by those 'closest' to you far more often than by the random person on the street, but most people seem to focus on the stranger in the van, the creep in the alley, the illegal immigrant on the street as the person you should be afraid of. Maybe because it's just too hard to believe you could know someone who would do terrible things.

[PiKA2001]

Originally Posted by KSig RC

Those stats are essentially meaningless without accounting for causation/correlation problems, though.

I was thinking that when they compared the current violent crime stats of Detroit, which has been economically depressed for generations, to San Antonio, which has economically grown by leaps and bounds during the last decade. I think San Antonios lower crime rate has more to do with the economic opportunities available for it's residents than anything else.

[AOII Angel]

Originally Posted by Drolefille

You're messing with my head woman. I was trying to quote you and your post went poof.

Anyway, most crimes seem to be that way. I'm not actually sure which crimes are more likely to be perpetrated by a stranger rather than by a family member or acquaintance. Murder, rape, child abuse, all are committed by those 'closest' to you far more often than by the random person on the street, but most people seem to focus on the stranger in the van, the creep in the alley, the illegal immigrant on the street as the person you should be afraid of. Maybe because it's just too hard to believe you could know someone who would do terrible things.

Sorry, didn't want to leave out the other post.

As for causation/correlation, it's hard to argue about that when the republicans backing this bill in AZ are arguing that the crime rate is why they want this bill. The crime rate is DOWN! The crime is not because of illegal immigration which is also DOWN! It is as KSig RC said, "a dog and pony show."

[PiKA2001]

Originally Posted by AOII Angel

Sorry, didn't want to leave out the other post.

As for causation/correlation, it's hard to argue about that when the republicans backing this bill in AZ are arguing that the crime rate is why they want this bill. The crime rate is DOWN! The crime is not because of illegal immigration which is also DOWN! It is as KSig RC said, "a dog and pony show."

The bill was really sold on fear of potential violence spilling over into the U.S. It hasn't really happened yet, but that doesn't mean it can't ( see Bob Krentz). I blame the drug cartel war going on in Mexico and the fear generated from it as pushing the anti-illegal agenda going on today as well as the current recession. History proves that we haven't been the most hospitable to immigrants during economic turmoil.

[starang21]

i think the argument that illegals are committing all of these violent crimes is sensationalism at best.

but they're still illegal. so they're breaking the law by their mere presence.

[PiKA2001]

Originally Posted by starang21

i think the argument that illegals are committing all of these violent crimes is sensationalism at best.

but they're still illegal. so they're breaking the law by their mere presence.

While that is true it doesn't answer the question of what we are to do with them. Amnesty is an option that would cut down on the ancillary crimes committed by illegals such as driving without a license and ID theft/fraud, not to mention they wouldn't be illegals anymore. Easy money.