Why Virginia Worries the GOP

[The1calledTKE]

Republican Jerry Kilgore is locked in a tight race for governor. The outcome of Tuesday's election will either reassure the party—or cause real concern about the 2006 midterm elections

Jerry Kilgore, a Republican candidate for Governor whose mountain twang kept him out of his own ads for much of the campaign, was looking starched and chipper Sunday as he shook hands outside the Falls Church, a 273-year-old Episcopal congregation near Washington that has a number of Bush Administration luminaries in its pews. Falls Church is a Democratic oasis, but these were his people. "In Falls Church, of all places, a landslide!" Kilgore said delightedly before heading inside. He is Baptist, but joined fellow parishioners in kneeling for prayers. The service ran long and so he sneaked out the side after receiving Communion and headed to McLean Bible Church, a non-denominational mega-church where he was greeted with applause at the Welcome Center.

Even for Election Eve, Kilgore is unusually nervous. On Tuesday night, he will either be Governor-elect of the Old Dominion, one of the nation's most reliably Republican states, or poster boy for his national party's woes heading into next year's mid-term elections. "We can't even win in Virginia?" Republicans will be asking themselves if the former state attorney general does not pull it out in his neck-and-neck race against the Democratic Lieutenant Governor, Timothy M. Kaine. "The conventional wisdom will be that the Republicans are on the verge of a massive meltdown in 2006," says the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, whose quotes to national reporters will do much to define that conventional wisdom. "It's easy enough to say these off-year elections are a harbinger," Sabato tells TIME, "but history shows that is only rarely the case." Activists in both parties are crediting Kaine, 47, with an edge in closing momentum over Kilgore, 44. The two are tied in key polls and Democrats usually need to be up considerably to overcome the Republican turnout machine in "the mother of Presidents." Political historians point out, however, that if Kilgore triumphs, it would be the first time since 1973 that the party in the White House had won the Virginia statehouse.

President George W. Bush, who carried Virginia by 9 points in 2004 and 8 in 2000, is dropping into the Commonwealth on Monday night on his way home from South America to headline a turn-out-the-vote rally for Kilgore at a Richmond hangar. Kilgore caused a stir last month when he did not join Bush for a "War on Terror" appearance in Norfolk, a military community that along with Richmond is the biggest swing area in this race. It was described as a sign that Bush's woes were dragging Kilgore down, although Republicans say he and the White House decided together that Bush's presence would make an official event look too political and it would not have been a good use of his time. Now the candidate tells TIME: "We're with the president and glad he's on our team. This'll be great to fire up our base."

The Republican National Committee has switched on its intricate "72-hour program" of door-knocking and phone-calling to supporters who have been identified by well-honed techniques that include both the high-tech and laborious. The party chairman, Ken Mehlman, made appearances all over the state this weekend, including a stop at a phone bank in Fredericksburg that had made more than 40,000 calls in just a couple of days. Mehlman will be out again Monday, as will Mary Matalin. White House Political Director Sara Taylor canvassed the state as if she were a candidate herself, making appearances in Richmond, Charlottesville and the Shenandoah Valley. On Saturday, Kilgore appeared with Sen. George Allen, the presidential candidate and son of the legendary football coach, who was zinging around both the football and football analogies. When he told Kilgore the state was giving him the ball, the candidate held the pigskin with apparent alarm, not quite finding the laces. Kilgore's throws were wobbly but to the immense relief of his staff, he caught the ball one-handed when it was winged at him.

Kaine had his own state political luminary at his side this weekend—a former Governor, and a Republican former Governor, at that. His father-in-law is A. Linwood Holton, 82, who as Governor from 1970 to 1974 was known for his progressive stances on integration and busing. On Sunday morning, Holton joined what the Kaine campaign called a "family hike" at a state park on the Virginia-Kentucky border, where the overlooks offered spectacular pageants of fall foliage. Kaine, a lawyer and former Richmond Mayor, has tied himself to his running-mate from 2001, Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat whose approval rating in the state is about 70 to 75 percent. Bush's is in the low- to mid-40s. So Kaine's communications director, Mo Elleithee, can slyly say that the Democrats welcome Bush to Virginia. "Do you want someone who's going to govern like Mark Warner, or someone who's going to govern like George Bush?" Elleithee says. "That sums up what this race is all about. We're not doing anything to protest or counter his appearance. It makes our job much easier." A wish, or an irony? The answer could have an ear-splitting impact on national politics.

for full article...
http://www.time.com/time/nation/arti...126781,00.html

[Xylochick216]

This election is driving me nuts, especially working at a TV station (a conservative station, no less). It seems like this entire campaign has been Kilgore throwing mud, Kaine defending it, then Kilgore twisting around Kaine's words. They've both done a lot of negative campaigning (as have the candidates for Lt. Gov and Atty. Gen) but I'm just sick of the baseless attacks. Governor Warner has been amazing.... high approval rating, amazing budget, etc. Virginia has been thriving for the past few years while Kilgore fought them every step of the way. My extremely conservative co-workers try to find negative things to say about Warner but they can't. I know Kaine isn't the same person as Warner, but at least he gives sources when he says things about Kilgore.

The debate between the two of them was ridiculous, too. They wouldn't allow Russ Potts (a Rep. running as an Independent) join in, and Kilgore didn't answer any questions. When they asked him about highway repair, he said that Kaine and Kilgore didn't fully eliminate the car tax. Of course they didn't. They've spent the past 4 years cleaning up the mess made by George Allen and his cronies. People don't seem to realize that if you cut one tax completely, then you will be taxed somewhere else, or else funding will stop for some things that we enjoy.

I can't wait for tomorrow night to get here. I'm hoping and praying for a Kaine victory like you wouldn't believe. If Kilgore wins, then God save the Commonwealth, because we'll need all the help we can get. Plus, who wants to listen to that nasaly, whiny, redneck voice talking all the time?

[Lil' Hannah]

Originally posted by Xylochick216
This election is driving me nuts, especially working at a TV station (a conservative station, no less).

I'm sick of the ads too (we get them since DC stations are broadcast in NoVA...). I actually have an acquaintance that works on the Kilgore campaign and the fundraising she was doing for the ads was ridiculous. She also said that they don't like having Kilgore in the ads because of his lisp

VA is an interesting beast with the dems in the north and the republicans in the south. It's almost like 2 different states, not even politically but just in general. I'm also excited to hear the outcome of today's election, just because it's been in my face for the past 5 months.

[UofISigKap]

Originally posted by pixell
I HATE those ads! They're so horrible...I keep expecting one of them to be like "Time Kaine KILLS little puppies!"

So true, so true...my dad even called me from Illinois to find out what was going on. The "mud" is being heard over 700 miles away! I got out and voted though after work. It will be interesting to see what the end result is and what public response is. Will the losing person be graceful about it??

[syrinx]

Originally posted by pixell
I HATE those ads! They're so horrible...I keep expecting one of them to be like "Time Kaine KILLS little puppies!"

I don't know exactly what's going on since I'm new to the area, but it's crazy how personal the ads have been.

Random comment: Apparently Kaine was on campus the other week, one of the other cs grad students met him.

I live in the Shenandoah Valley and you would THINK that this area would be a shoo-in for Republicans but both parties have been BLOWING MY PHONE UP with messages...

I went away for the weekend and came back and had 7 messages. FIVE of them were messages telling me to vote for ________.

You know its bad when they knock on your door to campaign...ON A SUNDAY!


WAKE ME UP WHEN TUESDAY'S OVER!!!!

[ZTABullwinkle]

I will be so HAPPY when this darn election is done. I have received at least four phone calls a day, every day for the last week to "ask" me to vote for a candidate. The mudslinging here is awful. You don't see commercials anymore, just political ads. GRRRRR!

[UofISigKap]

The results are coming in: Live poll results

It keeps flipping back and forth between candidates....Eeeee!

[syrinx]

Thanks for that website!

[The1calledTKE]

CNN and Fox News have said that Democrat Candidate Kaine has won the election.

[Xylochick216]

I'm thrilled He won by over 100,000 votes, too.

[Optimist Prime]

Originally posted by Xylochick216
I'm thrilled He won by over 100,000 votes, too.

Sooo glad that guy isn't governor now. We would get beat up and have our lunch money stolen from us by other states.

The reason GOP is losing VA is because they got too cocky, think could "count on" us., and then nominate jerk-wads like this.

Richmond has a new sheriff who will hopefully straighten out the jail/prison system in the city.

Hoo-ray for Tim Kaine, who fought the corruption of city council when he was mayor.

[hoosier]

Originally posted by Optimist Prime


The reason GOP is losing VA is because they got too cocky, think could "count on" us., and then nominate jerk-wads like this.

VA had a Dem gov. VA now elects a Dem gov.

Bush won VA in 2000 by 10%. The next election, VA goes for a Dem gov.

Bush won VA by 11% in 2004. The next election, VA goes for a Dem gov.

GOP didn't lose anything in VA.

Next time, I hope they get a better candidate.

From below: "Not every Republican running statewide was as misguided as Mr. Kilgore. Bill Bolling captured the lieutenant governor's office, nudging out Democrat Leslie Byrne by about 30,000 votes out of nearly two million cast. Mr. Bolling made his opposition to the "massive" and "unnecessary" tax increase a centerpiece of his campaign."

[hoosier]

Wall St. Journal comments:

As bellwethers go, however, Virginia's governor's race has a poor track record. Four years ago Democrat Mark Warner won the governor's mansion. A year later, Republicans were winning a surprising number of victories, including picking up seats in the House, two seats in the U.S. Senate, and even capturing the governor's mansion in Maryland for the first time in decades. Thus Tuesday's defeat in Virginia may be less a harbinger of doom for Republicans in 2006 than a timely reminder of the fate usually meted out to GOP standard bearers who go wobbly on taxes.

Republican Jerry Kilgore never seemed to understand this. In 2001, he won more votes than any statewide candidate in history when he was elected attorney general, and George Bush won Virginia by nine points last year. But a Republican-controlled legislature recently passed the largest tax increase in the state's history and failed to completely repeal the state's hated personal property tax on cars. Mr. Kilgore had a perfect opportunity to reunify a GOP still bitterly divided over this tax hike by vowing to repeal it after an unexpected bumper crop of revenues. But he didn't seize this opening. Result: Disgruntled Republicans stayed home on Tuesday or cast their vote for Mr. Kaine or (as 2% of the electorate did) for the third party candidate, moderate Republican Russ Potts. It's no wonder Mr. Kaine won by five points -- a blowout, considering the conservative leaning of the state.

Not every Republican running statewide was as misguided as Mr. Kilgore. Bill Bolling captured the lieutenant governor's office, nudging out Democrat Leslie Byrne by about 30,000 votes out of nearly two million cast. Mr. Bolling made his opposition to the "massive" and "unnecessary" tax increase a centerpiece of his campaign.

[Xylochick216]

Keep putting your spin on things, Hoosier. Believe what you want.

[hoosier]

Originally posted by Xylochick216
Keep putting your spin on things, Hoosier. Believe what you want.

Facts be facts, sweetie