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Political Forecast
Well it's coming, but it won't last.
Expected Kerry Bounce
As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.
An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention.
As the below chart illustrates:
1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat.
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce[1]" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.
Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up."
Just remember this - I told you so.
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