The OFFICIAL "this is not gambling" Pick'em thread

KSig RC · #1 09-29-2005, 12:36 PM

OK everybody - we've had some interesting NFL and college football discussions, so let's talk about these games from the true perspective - selecting winners against the Vegas odds (not gambling, yet again, douche bags). I'll start this week with just the NFL games (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):

san diego
NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) O/U 47.5

den
JAX (-4) O/U 36.5

hou
CIN (-10) O/U 42.5

ind (-7)
TEN O/U 45.5

phi
KC (-1.5) O/U 45

det
TB (-6.5) O/U 34

stl
NYG (-3) O/U 46.5

buf
NO (PK) O/U 39.5

sea
WAS (-1.5) O/U 36.5

nyj
BAL (-7) O/U 31

min
ATL (-6) O/U 44.5

dal
OAK (-3) O/U 46.5

sf
ARI (-2.5) O/U 43

gb
CAR (-7.5) O/U 43

So what's your pick? I'll post 5 games I like, feel free to take as many as you'd like on your own, and we can keep track of results. I'll post my rationale, and maybe we'll learn a little something along the way. Also I'll wager $20 I beat lil'hannah's ass every week from now until the day she dies.

KSig RC · #2 09-29-2005, 12:47 PM

My picks this week:

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
san diego
NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) O/U 47.5

I'll take SD and the points - the Pats are traditionally EXTREMELY tough in Gillette, and the weather might not be great. The Chargers are a moderate road team, made to look better by a weak schedule last year. However, LT will run RAMPANT on the NE linebackers, and with Harrison out he might set fantasy football records that will never be broken. However, Chad Brown can fill in against the pass, Belichick will come up with something, and the Pats will win.

Remember, though - the Pats NEVER cover. I think the Pats win something like 24-21, and I make money.

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
ind (-7)
TEN O/U 45.5

I LOVE home dogs - this game is a tough one, though. I really like TEN to keep it close, and I really don't think this game makes it to the over (46 points total, or better than 24-21). Tennessee has a tough d, but really might not be able to score on the Colts D.

I'll take the UNDER.

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
phi
KC (-1.5) O/U 45

Just in case you thought the Chargers pick was stupid, I'll go ahead and take Philly on the road, in what might be a massive game for the Chiefs on the rebound. McNabb's hurt, needs surgery, but will probably play - so let's just move along here and hope I'm right.

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
buf
NO (PK) O/U 39.5

I'm not picking anything here, but is there a more dangerous game than this one? I mean, literally anything could happen here- my gut says NO gets beat in the Alamodome, but I'm just. not. sure.

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
nyj
BAL (-7) O/U 31

I can't imagine the Jets even scoring in this game, so I'll take BAL even giving a ridiculous td with a horrific offense. God help my picks this week.

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
min
ATL (-6) O/U 44.5

Is Minnehaha for real after blowing out the Saints? No. The Saints are really that bad, especially with injuries etc. ATL's traditional downfall (bad secondary) just won't be exploited enough by the Minnesota receivers (Burleson is hurt), and I'm 100% sure the Falcons can run on the Minnesota D. I'll take ATL and give the points.

Well, sports fans, this has all the makings of a 1-4 week for Rob, but I'll roll the dice a little and hope to sweep (and dime away on some people who make common mistakes).

The mistakes that the general public always makes that I'm trying to exploit:

-overrating big wins last week, and underrating big losses
-always taking the 'over' with indy, pushing the line higher
-underreacting to personnel issues, especially in the NE game, which is a much tougher match-up than at first blush
-letting the line play them, instead of playing the line

Lil' Hannah · #3 09-29-2005, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
stl
NYG (-3) O/U 46.5

I'd take the under on this one

I don't really know how I feel about any of the other ones. Maybe I'd put money on the Baltimore game, although they're not really blowing up my skirt at this point.

KSig RC · #4 09-30-2005, 10:20 AM

OK - and if you want to play along with RC this weekend, here's where I'm putting my 'units' where my mouth is:

1/2 unit - SD +5.5
1 unit - PHI +1.5
1 unit - BAL -7

and in college:

1 unit - UTEP -3.5
1/2 unit - WVU to win on the +375 money line (I wagered .5 units to win 1.9 units)

As a f-around, I also threw 1/2 unit on a 2-team parlay taking UVA -3.5 and UF -3.5 (paying 13/5, or 1.3 units on a win)

So yeah - you can watch RC's games all weekend, and see if his extensive preparation paid off (figuratively of course) - and root against VaTech in Morgantown, that would be huge.

Big gulps huh? welp, seeya later.

Lil' Hannah · #5 09-30-2005, 10:25 AM

It appears that you and I are the only ones that care about not gambling on football. That ain't right.

I don't like your NCAA picks, but that's because I'm a huge homer.

KSig RC · #6 09-30-2005, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Lil' Hannah
I don't like your NCAA picks, but that's because I'm a huge homer.

I'm not in love with them either, but they seemed like the best value -

Maryland is tough at home, but they're way down this year, and it looks like UVA is in a position to drop a lot of points on them. If it's a war of attrition, I hate that line - but if UVA can move the ball, I think they'll win by a TD.

The VT bet was simply for value - getting almost 4:1 on my money, with the #3 defense in the nation (VT) at the #4 defense (WVU) . . . it should be a low-scoring game, which means that one big play could break the game for either side. Basically, I'm getting 4:1 on my money that the breaks go for WVU instead of VT (or at least enough to overcome the fact that VT is a far better team). Remember, Frank Beamer teams always lose one random road game, so why not take 4:1 on this one?

UTEP was pretty much a no-brainer, since Memphis is awful and the line appears to be in the 'dead zone' - that game is paying for my other two wagers (in an ideal world).

valkyrie · #7 09-30-2005, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Lil' Hannah
It appears that you and I are the only ones that care about not gambling on football. That ain't right.

I'd gamble on football but I'm not familiar with Vegas odds and have no idea what any of this means. WTF:

den
JAX (-4) O/U 36.5

Does that mean JAX is favored by 4? I have no idea. But Denver is going to win I tell you!!!! I have to have ONE TEAM that doesn't suck (and hey, thanks Hawks for not being that team).

KSig RC · #8 09-30-2005, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by valkyrie
I'd gamble on football but I'm not familiar with Vegas odds and have no idea what any of this means. WTF:

den
JAX (-4) O/U 36.5

Does that mean JAX is favored by 4? I have no idea. But Denver is going to win I tell you!!!! I have to have ONE TEAM that doesn't suck (and hey, thanks Hawks for not being that team).

Good point - let's go through it . . .

den
JAX (-4) O/U 36.5

den ->>> this is the Denver Broncos, obv
JAX ->>> this is the Jacksonville Jaguars - because it is in CAPS then Jax is the home team

JAX (-4) ->>> this represents the 'point spread' or 'line' for this game - this means that if you bet on Jacksonville you are 'giving' 4 points to the other team. If Jacksonville wins by 5 points or more, then you win the wager. If they win by 3 points or fewer, you lose the wager. If they win by 4 exactly, the game is a 'push' and neither side wins.

In this situation, if you bet on Denver, you are getting "(+4)" which means that if they win, you win the bet. If they lose by three or fewer, you also win the bet, since Jacksonville did not "cover" the point spread.

O/U 36.5 ->>> this is the 'over/under' line - a wager here means you're betting that the total number of points scored for both teams will either be above or under this line.

KSig RC · #9 10-03-2005, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
OK - and if you want to play along with RC this weekend, here's where I'm putting my 'units' where my mouth is:

1/2 unit - SD +5.5
1 unit - PHI +1.5
1 unit - BAL -7

Elementary, my dear Watson - I won all three of these, and really should have gone with my gut and bet the full unit on SD . . .

Quote:

Originally posted by KSig RC
and in college:

1 unit - UTEP -3.5
1/2 unit - WVU to win on the +375 money line (I wagered .5 units to win 1.9 units)

As a f-around, I also threw 1/2 unit on a 2-team parlay taking UVA -3.5 and UF -3.5 (paying 13/5, or 1.3 units on a win)

aaaaand . . . college, not so good, as I lost all of these. UTEP was the rough one here - Memphis was on its 3rd QB, with a VERY moderate line, and still pulled it out. Pukes.

So yeah - after week 'one' of our little excursion, RC is up .4 units. It's not out of control, but it's profit - this week, I'll post some lines as we get closer to the weekend.

TY - nice call on the 'under', too - what was it, 68 points combined? word!

Lil' Hannah · #10 10-03-2005, 10:49 AM

Good thing I didn't bet any units.