What cracks me up are people who think that the debates matter, and that Iraq matters. History has shown that these things are irrelevant. What matters is the economy. The best example is the 1972 presidential election. Four years earlier, Nixon told the American people that he had a secret plan to get the U.S. out of the then unpopular Vietnam War. In 1972, the U.S. was still in Vietnam, and the war was even more unpopular. Also, the Watergate scandal was emerging. What happend? Nixon won in one of the biggest landslides in American history. Why? The economy was cooking.
Here's a model posted by Dr. Ray C. Fair, a Yale economist:
http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2004/computev.htm
Using 2 year old data, it shows a Bush landslide. The economy has gotten better since then. Maybe Rudey, or someone else, can give us the current data so that we can see how accurate this model will be in a few weeks.
(Another) Econometric Model Shows a (Huge) Bush Victory
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