Political Forecast

[ASTATEPIKE]

Well it's coming, but it won't last.

Expected Kerry Bounce

As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.

An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention.

As the below chart illustrates:

1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat.
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce[1]" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.

Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up."

Just remember this - I told you so.

[godfrey n. glad]

source?

http://www2.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/anal...g/2000/08/03/:

And after the 1980 Republican convention, Gallup showed Ronald Reagan with an eight-point bounce, while CBS/USA Today/Gallup showed Reagan losing two points.

Overall, the two sets of polls strongly suggest the nominees receive a bounce, but that it can range from statistically insignificant to the high single digits. Bounces larger than that have occurred, but they are relatively rare.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland has conducted his own review of pre- and post-convention polls. But instead of relying on one or two companies, he has looked at the most timely poll each cycle (the one conducted as close to one week before the conventions and immediately after the conventions).

Holland found a bounce in the five- to seven-point range, with at least a couple (after the 1992 Democratic convention and the 1980 GOP convention) much larger.

That's all I've been able to find. I don't see any documentation of the phenomenon you're referencing.