Is Palin causing a schism in the GOP?

[DaemonSeid]

(CNN) -- Election Day is still days away, but Republicans are already caught up in a heated debate about Sarah Palin's future role in the party should the GOP ticket fail to win the White House.

In one corner are some conservatives who believe the Alaska governor has been a detriment to John McCain's presidential bid and threatens to lead the party astray for the foreseeable future.

Another faction says Palin's core-conservative beliefs, demonstrated political acumen, and compelling frontier biography position her to reshape the face of a party now viewed by many voters as out of touch.

It's a debate, somewhat ugly at times, that is beginning to play out in public view as Republicans brace themselves for the possibility of losing the White House and a significant number of seats in Congress come Election Day. And that may leave the party in shambles with drastically reduced influence in Washington. iReport.com: Share your thoughts on Palin

Should that happen, political observers say, the party will face its biggest identity crisis in more than a generation, and Palin may well be caught squarely in the middle of it.

"A civil war that is simmering will break out into the open if McCain loses, and the party will have to decide what they want to be in the post-Reagan world," said Gloria Borger, a senior political analyst for CNN.


"She is such a compelling figure, and she has helped, without a doubt, with the Republican base," CNN Chief National Correspondent John King said. "But she's also hurting with key constituencies, like suburban women and independents, and there's a big question that, if McCain loses, does she try to emerge as the leader of the party heading into the 2012 cycle?"

Should Palin ultimately decide to launch her own presidential bid, she will face a massive headwind from an influential group of conservatives who believe the Alaska governor represents the very reasons why the Republican Party finds itself in retreat.

"She is a person of great ambition, but the question remains: What is the purpose of the ambition? She wants to rise, but what for? It's unclear whether she is Bushian or Reaganite. She doesn't think aloud. She just ... says things," conservative columnist Peggy Noonan wrote in a recent Wall Street Journal column.

It's an argument that has been echoed by a string of conservatives -- including David Brooks, George Will, Kathleen Parker, and David Frum -- who believe Palin exhibits a poisonous anti-intellectual instinct of the party that threatens to ultimately destroy its foundations.

"Reagan had an immense faith in the power of ideas. But there has been a counter, more populist tradition, which is not only to scorn liberal ideas but to scorn ideas entirely. And I'm afraid that Sarah Palin has those prejudices," said Brooks, a conservative columnist for the New York Times.

Frum, a former speechwriter for President Bush who has written that Palin is woefully inexperienced to be president, told CNN the Alaska governor's chances might be slim in a general election matchup.

Palin, whose campaign rally crowds have been noticeably larger than McCain's, will certainly have legitimacy to run for president in four years should she want to. Some McCain operatives, claiming Palin repeatedly veers off script and often disregards the campaign's advice, already believe she is more interested in positioning herself for the future than helping the party win this year.

There is MUCH more to be found here:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/...gop/index.html

Talk about a game changer, I think Palin sees the writing on the wall and if this works this to her advantage, she will have 4 years to prepare and come out a strong candidate. Why be second billing when the people see you as first rate?

[Scandia]

I hope not. She is VERY qualified to be VP. I may not agree with her on everything, but I like her overall. And she stands behind her values.

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by Scandia

She is VERY qualified to be VP.

No, she's not. Not. At. All.

And yes, it's looking like she's trying to make sure her own future doesn't go down with the McCain campaign. Can't say I blame her on that.

[DaemonSeid]

Originally Posted by MysticCat

No, she's not. Not. At. All.

And yes, it's looking like she's trying to make sure her own future doesn't go down with the McCain campaign. Can't say I blame her on that.

Agreed...hell...I am as qualified as she is...heh...but...what's even scarier is the thought that there are GOPers who will get on her side....not because they don't have any one experienced (there are at least 4 women better qualified than Palin)enough to lead the party but they need a fresh face to mold and corrupt.

But, I too agree, it's time for her to save her own skin and for her to hope that she can salvage something of a political career out of this.


....altho something tells me that the road back home should she lose will be a rough one...I think her constituents on both sides of the aisle may tell her to take a long hike off of a short Bridge to Nowhere

[epchick]

Originally Posted by DaemonSeid

In one corner are some conservatives who believe the Alaska governor has been a detriment to John McCain's presidential bid and threatens to lead the party astray for the foreseeable future.

I'm not even a big conservative and I believe she has been a detriment. I DO NOT see Palin winning a 2012 presidential election, shoot I don't see her winning any presidential election. She'd have to make drastice changes to get people to forget all the goof-ups she's had this election.

Originally Posted by Scandia

She is VERY qualified to be VP.

If you're saying she's qualified because she's a U.S. citizen and "of age" to be VP, then fine she's qualified. Otherwise, no she's definitely not.

[DaemonSeid]

Originally Posted by epchick

I'm not even a big conservative and I believe she has been a detriment. I DO NOT see Palin winning a 2012 presidential election, shoot I don't see her winning any presidential election. She'd have to make drastice changes to get people to forget all the goof-ups she's had this election.



If your saying she's qualified because she's a U.S. citizen and "of age" to be VP, then fine she's qualified. Otherwise, no she's definitely not.

yeah...like at least naming one newspaper she can read or stop lying about seeing Moscow from her house...LOL

[TonyB06]

I wouldn't say she's causing a schism, but Palin is fighting back in the perception war regarding her role in the campaign.

Going forward, Palin's political relevance will likely be determined by what she does with the intervening 4 years. To many, including a raft of conservative columnists, she comes off as intellectually incurious. Does she build a coalition (on energy? or some other issue). Does she develop intellectual/policy depth on a range of issues? Does she join a think tank and lead opposition and present viable policy alternatives? Does she run for Senate, building a visible national platform?

I don't expect Palin to take an master's degree Harvard, but given her introduction to the American public (i.e. the Gibson, Couric interviews, et al.), I think all but her most partisan supporters would agree she has some image rehabilitation work to do if she wants a national future in politics.

[KSigkid]

This has been something I've thought about quite a bit, and I briefly posted on it in another thread. As most people on the board know, I'm a Republican with many conservative beliefs (mostly economics) and some liberal leanings (pro-choice, anti-death penalty).

My biggest fear coming out of this election, besides the issues I have with Obama's platform, is that Palin will somehow take center stage within the party. I've had an inkling that the anti-intellectual wing of the party has grown; it hasn't just been Palin, but if you listen to commentators like Hannity, it's suddenly become a bad thing to be intelligent. There seems to be a feeling among many within the party that education does not equal conservatism. Never mind people like Romney, Jindal, Scalia, etc...

I'll make no bones about it - my ideal ticket in 2012 would be Romney-Jindal, as I'm a big fan of both. While my interest in Jindal may fade in 4 years, whatever happens, I want Romney to be the 2012 nominee. I'm afraid, though, that there will be enough support among the far right and the "base," so to speak for Palin, and that she will gain so much steam in that time, that she could be the presumptive nominee. Again, it's 4 years, and 4 years is a long time, but I still am afraid of that possibility.

I think there is a place for intellectuals within the Republican party. I think it is possible to have boatloads of education and still be a tried and true Conservative. I believe the party can overcome this loss and come back stronger than ever. But, I have a fear that Palin and others will lead the party down the wrong road.

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by DaemonSeid

yeah...like at . . . stop lying about seeing Moscow from her house...LOL

LOL. To be fair, though, that was Tina Fey, not Sarah Palin.

[TonyB06]

Originally Posted by KSigkid

This has been something I've thought about quite a bit, and I briefly posted on it in another thread. As most people on the board know, I'm a Republican with many conservative beliefs (mostly economics) and some liberal leanings (pro-choice, anti-death penalty).

My biggest fear coming out of this election, besides the issues I have with Obama's platform, is that Palin will somehow take center stage within the party. I've had an inkling that the anti-intellectual wing of the party has grown; it hasn't just been Palin, but if you listen to commentators like Hannity, it's suddenly become a bad thing to be intelligent. There seems to be a feeling among many within the party that education does not equal conservatism. Never mind people like Romney, Jindal, Scalia, etc...

I'll make no bones about it - my ideal ticket in 2012 would be Romney-Jindal, as I'm a big fan of both. While my interest in Jindal may fade in 4 years, whatever happens, I want Romney to be the 2012 nominee. I'm afraid, though, that there will be enough support among the far right and the "base," so to speak for Palin, and that she will gain so much steam in that time, that she could be the presumptive nominee. Again, it's 4 years, and 4 years is a long time, but I still am afraid of that possibility.

I think there is a place for intellectuals within the Republican party. I think it is possible to have boatloads of education and still be a tried and true Conservative. I believe the party can overcome this loss and come back stronger than ever. But, I have a fear that Palin and others will lead the party down the wrong road.

While Republican orthodoxy/strategy may be shaped out of whatever new convictions emerge, some weight has to be given to what happens in the initial 18-month window of an Obama Administration (being presumptious for a monent.)

(I say 18 months because the partisan posturing leading up to the 2010 midterms will probably render any serious policy advancement moot after that.) An effective 18 months (health care reform, or signals of an economic recovery) will likely point to which Republican faction takes charge of the party.


Right now, Palin is clearly a stalking horse for the social conservatives, even ahead of Huckabee. Whether she wants to be anything more than that will be shown by her actions and what steps she takes to "emerge" as it were. I agree, Romney, et. al. won't just let her have the stage to herself, either.

[Munchkin03]

Originally Posted by Scandia

I hope not. She is VERY qualified to be VP. I may not agree with her on everything, but I like her overall. And she stands behind her values.

You do realize that she doesn't do cosplay, right?

[OneTimeSBX]

i have to disagree with Scandia as well....qualified can mean SO much. like Daemon said, most of us are "qualified" to run as VP. hell, the green party has a hip-hop activist running for VP, so that doesnt bode well for Palin, does it?

[MysticCat]

Originally Posted by KSigkid

My biggest fear coming out of this election, besides the issues I have with Obama's platform, is that Palin will somehow take center stage within the party. I've had an inkling that the anti-intellectual wing of the party has grown; it hasn't just been Palin, but if you listen to commentators like Hannity, it's suddenly become a bad thing to be intelligent. There seems to be a feeling among many within the party that education does not equal conservatism. Never mind people like Romney, Jindal, Scalia, etc...

I think there is a place for intellectuals within the Republican party. I think it is possible to have boatloads of education and still be a tried and true Conservative. I believe the party can overcome this loss and come back stronger than ever. But, I have a fear that Palin and others will lead the party down the wrong road.

I think you have good company in David Brooks, George Will and David Frum.

[DaemonSeid]

Originally Posted by TonyB06

I wouldn't say she's causing a schism, but Palin is fighting back in the perception war regarding her role in the campaign.

Going forward, Palin's political relevance will likely be determined by what she does with the intervening 4 years. To many, including a raft of conservative columnists, she comes off as intellectually incurious. Does she build a coalition (on energy? or some other issue). Does she develop intellectual/policy depth on a range of issues? Does she join a think tank and lead opposition and present viable policy alternatives? Does she run for Senate, building a visible national platform?

I don't expect Palin to take an master's degree Harvard, but given her introduction to the American public (i.e. the Gibson, Couric interviews, et al.), I think all but her most partisan supporters would agree she has some image rehabilitation work to do if she wants a national future in politics.

Speaking of rehab...she is going to have a lot of rehabbing of her image in Alaska before she goes national again...if this campaign fails I would say watch her approval numbers in Alaska for the remainder of her term before this convo pops back up

[KSUViolet06]

Originally Posted by KSigkid

I've had an inkling that the anti-intellectual wing of the party has grown; it hasn't just been Palin, but if you listen to commentators like Hannity, it's suddenly become a bad thing to be intelligent. There seems to be a feeling among many within the party that education does not equal conservatism. Never mind people like Romney, Jindal, Scalia, etc...

Thanks for this post. I've been trying to put my finger on this for awhile, but had trouble articulating it.

I don't know, I feel like if they really wanted a woman, there were so many better choices (I can think of Kay Hutchison off the top of my head).